America is heading straight towards a presidential election which it is not very enthusiastic about, after Donald Trump and Joe Biden, already overwhelming favorites in their respective primaries, completed the vacuum around them on Tuesday during “Super Tuesday”.
The only one still in the running in the Republican primary against the former president, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley announced on Wednesday that she is ending her campaign.
Donald Trump, who occupied the White House from 2017 to 2021, won almost all the states – 14 out of 15 – in play during the big election day on Tuesday.
The Republican, surrounded by legal proceedings which undermine neither the fervor of his base nor his hold on the conservative party, should declare victory no later than March 19, after primaries notably in Georgia and Florida.
Joe Biden, who faces no serious opposition, won in all the states voting on Tuesday.
The 81-year-old Democrat, like his 77-year-old Republican rival, will have to wait until the summer conventions to be nominated by their parties – barring any surprises or health accidents.
But they already have their eyes on November 5.
“Great evening”
Surrounded by his supporters gathered in his luxurious Florida residence, Donald Trump hailed Tuesday as “a wonderful evening”.
The former real estate magnate, who presents himself as a providential man in the face of the generalized “decline” of America, has devoted all his attacks to Joe Biden, particularly in matters of immigration and the economy.
The latter resumed his main campaign theme, assuring Tuesday that Donald Trump was “determined to destroy our democracy”.
According to the polls, this duel between a septuagenarian and an octogenarian hardly excites voters.
To win, in an extremely polarized America, Joe Biden like Donald Trump will have to both mobilize their bases and attract as many independent voters as possible in a handful of undecided states.
What, for example, will supporters of Republican Nikki Haley do?
According to the American press, in a speech on Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. GMT in Charleston (South Carolina), the former ambassador to the UN will not call for a vote for the former president.
Independents
Joe Biden’s campaign team will try to tap into this reservoir of votes – crushed by Donald Trump, Nikki Haley nevertheless won over some conservative voters, and even won the mountainous and sparsely populated state of Vermont (north-east) .
Joe Biden “never really cared about the other candidates in his party or the Republican Party,” explains Todd Belt, a political scientist at George Washington University, who expects that “the attacks (against Donald Trump) will ‘intensify’.
The president faces stubbornly anemic approval ratings, lingering concerns about his age, and anger among some voters over his strong line of support for Israel.
But Joe Biden remains convinced of being the best candidate against Donald Trump: “I am the only one who has ever beaten him. And I’m going to beat him again,” he said in an interview published Monday by the New Yorker.
On Thursday he will have a prime platform to try to convince the Americans: his annual speech on the State of the Union, in front of Congress and millions of television viewers.
“Tipping point”
“The most important thing will be to show that he wants to fight against Republicans on crucial issues like the economy, border security, health care, and individual rights. This is a heavy task for any president, and I think this speech could be a tipping point” in the campaign, analyzes political scientist Wendy Schiller.
The manner in which Joe Biden delivers this long speech – more than 70 minutes last year – will count as much as its content: America will be watching for any sign of fatigue or confusion on the part of its president.
Donald Trump’s age does not arouse the same reluctance among the American electorate.
But the former president faces another challenge: juggling a campaign and a busy judicial schedule, with what that entails in terms of travel and enormous expenses.
His first criminal trial begins on March 25 in New York.
The Republican claims to be “much more popular” since he was criminally charged four times, but a number of opinion polls show that support for his candidacy would crumble considerably if he were convicted.
