Fears of a major regional war grew as Israel vowed to respond to Iran’s missile barrage launched Tuesday evening.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Tehran that it had “made a grave mistake”.
Iran said around 180 ballistic missiles were fired at Israel in response to Israeli assassinations of senior leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The day before, Israel announced that it had launched a ground offensive in southern Lebanon, although Hezbollah denied that Israeli soldiers had crossed the border.
So how did a war that began in Israel and Gaza almost a year ago, when Hamas fighters attacked Israel and Israel began its devastating military campaign in the besieged enclave, end? could it have extended to this extent?
Here is a timeline of the key moments that led to this latest escalation of the conflict between Israel and its regional neighbors:
October 8, 2023 – Hezbollah and Israel begin exchanging fire
Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah began exchanging fire across the Lebanese-Israeli border a day after Hamas-led attacks in southern Israel, in which 1,139 people were killed and more than 200 captured , and Israel launched its retaliation on the ground. Gaza Strip under siege for almost a year.
The war on Gaza has so far killed more than 41,000 Palestinians, the majority of them women and children.
On October 8, Hezbollah said it launched guided rockets and artillery at three military posts in the Shebaa Farms, a border region, “in solidarity” with the Palestinians.
The Shebaa Farms, claimed by Lebanon, were seized by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967.
The Israeli army said it fired artillery at an area of Lebanon from where cross-border mortar fire had been launched.
Since then, cross-border shootings have continued on an almost daily basis. Hezbollah, formed in 1982 to fight Israel’s invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon, said it would stop attacking Israel once the Israeli attack on Gaza ceased.
From October 7, 2023 to September 6, 2024, of the 7,845 attacks exchanged between the two forces, approximately 82% were carried out by Israeli forces, according to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED). At least 646 people were killed in Lebanon during this period in Israeli attacks.
Hezbollah and other armed groups were responsible for 1,768 attacks that killed at least 32 Israelis.
April 1, 2024 – Israel strikes Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria
The Iranian consulate in Damascus was destroyed in an Israeli missile attack that resulted in the deaths of 13 people, including IRGC commander-in-chief General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy.
Israel has long targeted Iranian military installations in Syria, but this attack marked the first time it targeted the diplomatic complex itself. Iran has pledged to respond.
April 13, 2024 – Iran launches 300 missiles and drones towards Israel
Nearly two weeks after the deadly strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria, Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones targeting Israel.
It was the first time that Iran fired missiles directly into Israeli territory.
However, the majority of the projectiles were intercepted outside the country’s borders with the assistance of the United States, the United Kingdom and France, according to the Israeli army. Jordan also helped shoot down some missiles that crossed its airspace.
In Israel, a seven-year-old girl was seriously injured by missile fragments from the attack, while others were lightly injured. The Iranian air attack lasted five hours, according to U.S. officials.
July 31, 2024 – Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh
Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, the Iranian capital, in the early hours of Wednesday, July 31, when an airstrike hit the building in which he was staying. Hamas and Iran accused Israel of being responsible for the assassination, which came just hours after Israel targeted a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut.
Haniyeh was in Tehran to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian the day before.
Hamas’ armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, said Haniyeh’s assassination had taken the war with Israel to a “new level” and warned of “huge consequences for the entire region.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has promised “severe punishment”.
September 23-27, 2024 – Israel kills more than 700 people in Lebanon
On September 23, the Israeli military announced that it had launched more than 650 airstrikes against some 1,600 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon. The attacks affected a large part of the country – from Bint Jbeil and Aitaroun in the south, as far north as Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley.
In just four days, from September 23 to 27, Israeli forces killed more than 700 Lebanese in airstrikes across Lebanon. Among those killed were 50 children and 94 women. Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah for 32 years, was also killed.
The Israeli army claimed responsibility for the assassination, which took place during a massive assault on a residential suburb of Beirut using 85 so-called “bunker bombs”, according to Israeli media. The use of such bombs in residential and other populated areas is prohibited by the Geneva Convention.
At least 1,835 Lebanese were injured in the attacks, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health said.
On September 24, Hezbollah responded with an aerial drone attack targeting the Israeli naval base at Atlit, south of Haifa.
Israeli attacks continued, displacing at least a million Lebanese, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). The majority (90%) of displacement took place in the week leading up to October 1, with many people forced to sleep outside on the streets, on beaches and in parks, or in their cars.
How did the conflict reach this level?
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Washington, D.C. think tank Quincy Institute, said that if there had been “a real effort” for a Gaza ceasefire from the start, “we wouldn’t be in this situation now.”
“The key element that led to this escalation is that the American posture has been to seek to deter Iran and any of its proxies, or any of its partners in the region, from retaliating against Israel, but did nothing to prevent Israel from escalating the situation. first place,” Parsi told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“If Biden had pressured Israel not to escalate, then his efforts to prevent others from escalating would be more successful. Instead, he decided to enable and protect Israeli escalation. »
Denijal Jegic, assistant professor at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, agreed that “Washington and its proxies are shielding Israel from accountability while ensuring that Netanyahu can continue to commit genocide in Gaza and colonial violence throughout the region.” and to confront anyone who tries to intervene. “.
He told Tel Aviv Tribune that the international community had failed miserably to intervene in the genocide in Gaza, particularly due to US hegemony and the imbalance of power within UN institutions.
“The Israeli regime made it clear that it had no red line… (it) continued to escalate because it could,” Jegic said.
“Iran’s measured response cannot be understood as an escalation – but rather as an attempt to deter the Israeli regime’s continued daily escalation in the region. »
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