The American Time magazine published an article by foreign affairs columnist and editor-in-chief Ian Bremer containing his predictions for the 10 most important risks in 2024, which included the expansion of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, more imbalance in the political system in America, and the return of the El Nino phenomenon.
The following is a review of the writer’s expectations:
The United States against itself
The American political system will experience more dysfunction than any other advanced democracy, as the presidential election will deepen the country’s political division, test American democracy to a degree not seen in 150 years and undermine US credibility internationally.
The Middle East is on the brink of abyss
The fighting in Gaza will expand with several paths to escalate into a regional war, and the conflict may draw America and Iran directly into the fighting. The conflict will pose risks to the global economy, widen geopolitical and policy divisions, and fuel global “extremism.” The shortest path to escalation is a decision by Israel or Hezbollah to attack the other side.
The Houthi militants may also take an escalatory path, and the Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria will increase their attacks on American bases, with Tehran’s blessing. No country involved in the Gaza conflict wants a regional conflict to break out, but the gunpowder is ready and the number of people who can detonate it makes the risk high.
Divided Ukraine
Ukraine will be de facto divided this year, and Russia is now ahead on the battlefield and in finances. The year 2024 will be a turning point in the war. If Ukraine does not solve its manpower problems, increase arms production, and develop a realistic military strategy soon, its territorial losses may become sustainable and even expand. Kiev will take greater military risks this year, including strikes on more targets inside Russia that spark unprecedented Russian responses and could draw NATO into the conflict.
Uncontrolled artificial intelligence
Technology will overtake AI governance in 2024 as regulatory efforts falter, technology companies remain largely unconstrained, and more powerful AI models and tools proliferate beyond governments’ control.
The axis of villains and dangerous friends of America
This year, Russia, North Korea, and Iran will enhance each other’s capabilities and act in increasingly disruptive and coordinated ways on the global stage. Meanwhile, even Washington’s friends—the leaders of Ukraine, Israel, and perhaps Taiwan—will drag the United States into confrontations it wants to avoid.
No recovery in China
President Xi Jinping’s grip on power will increase and the focus will be on stimulating large-scale consumption and on structural reform, so the Chinese economy will underperform throughout 2024. Beijing’s failure to fix faltering economic growth, financial fragility, and a crisis of public confidence will expose capacity gaps. leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and increases the risk of social instability.
The fight for rare earths
Critical minerals will be a critical component of every sector that drives growth, innovation, and national security in the 21st century, from clean energy to advanced computing, biotechnology, transportation, and defense. In 2024, governments around the world will intensify their use of industrial policies and trade restrictions that disrupt the flow of vital minerals.
There is no room for error
The global inflation shock that began in 2021 will continue to have a negative impact on the economy and politics in 2024. Higher interest rates caused by stubborn inflation will slow growth around the world, and governments will have little room to stimulate growth or respond to shocks, increasing the risk of stresses. Financial, social unrest, and political instability.
The return of El Nino
After a 4-year absence, a strong El Nino climate will reach its peak in the first half of this year, triggering extreme weather events that lead to food insecurity, increased water stress, disruption of logistics, spread of diseases, triggering migration and political instability, in particular In countries already weakened by the coronavirus pandemic and the energy and food price shocks resulting from the Ukraine war.
Dangerous business
Customers, employees, and investors – most of them on the progressive side – have brought America’s culture wars to corporate offices, and now courts, state legislatures, governors, and activist groups – mostly conservatives – will respond. Companies caught in the political and legal crossfire will face greater uncertainty and costs.
This will be another turbulent year for US-China relations, particularly over Taiwan and technology competition, but domestic preoccupations have convinced Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping that a better-managed relationship serves both sides.
Europe’s populists will continue to incite fear in the European political establishment, but limited setbacks for the main parties in the European Parliament and national and local elections will neither upend the European political system nor derail EU ambitions rejuvenated by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war.
