Tel Aviv Tribune Net correspondents
Occupied Jerusalem- The Israeli government, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, seemed confused about the response of the Islamic Resistance Movement “Hamas” to the proposal of the Qatari, Egyptian, and United States mediators regarding the truce and the exchange deal, which is a response to the deepening rift and political polarization in Israel’s partisan map, and the difference in positions regarding the conduct of the war in Gaza and the priorities for returning prisoners.
In an attempt by the Netanyahu government to export the internal crisis following Hamas’ response, the Israeli army – according to observers, and based on instructions from the political echelon – quickly carried out a limited ground operation east of Rafah, amid intense raids and violent artillery shelling, with internal and external messages containing contradictions.
Amid the regional and international welcome to Hamas’s response and its positive position on the mediators’ proposal for a truce, Israel seemed divided against itself regarding everything related to concluding an exchange deal, even if the price was a ceasefire, as the war council emanating from the emergency government was quick to announce the start of the ground incursion into Rafah. As a means of intense military pressure on Hamas in the negotiations.
The margin of maneuver is shrinking
Experts believe that the war council announcement reflected the contradictions and disagreements in the Israeli political scene regarding the priorities of the war and whether the war achieved the declared goals, as well as the ambiguous position of the emergency government regarding Hamas’ approval of the truce and the exchange deal, a position that put Netanyahu at a crossroads, as he seeks to disavow the agreement. The entitlements for calm that may be imposed by international pressures and the American administration.
In an attempt by Netanyahu to diminish the strategic achievement achieved by Hamas by accepting the truce proposal, and so that the international community does not gain the impression that Israel is the one obstructing the truce negotiations and rejecting the ceasefire and the exchange deal, the War Council agreed to send the Israeli delegation to the Egyptian capital to negotiate with the mediators to exhaust the situation. The possibility of reaching an agreement on Israel’s terms, according to what Haaretz newspaper reported.
Netanyahu’s office deliberately said that “Hamas’s proposal is far from Israel’s demands,” which puts Netanyahu – according to the consensus of Israeli analysts – between the option of accepting the mediators’ proposal and Hamas’ response, or continuing the maneuver within a shrinking margin, and being stubborn about continuing the war and sacrificing prisoners to avoid the disintegration of his government coalition.
Inevitable breakup
In the face of the escalation of protests by the families of prisoners, and the renewed voices of the families of soldiers killed in Israel’s battles, which demand that Netanyahu’s government continue the war and not yield to Hamas, analyzes suggest that Netanyahu may move toward intensifying the military operation in Rafah to satisfy his coalition partners and prevent the disintegration of his government, if he responds to the pressures and accepts the mediators’ proposal. He considered Hamas’ approval of the truce and the exchange deal.
In a preliminary reading of the Israeli responses and positions regarding Hamas’ acceptance of the ceasefire proposal, Amir Makhoul, a researcher at the Arab Progress Center for Policy and an expert on Israeli affairs, says, “It appears that the rug has been pulled from under the Netanyahu government, which is reeling toward the finish line.”
The researcher estimated – in an interview with Tel Aviv Tribune Net – that Netanyahu is approaching the end of the maneuver spaces and the end of the war on Gaza, which indicates the ignition of internal political conflicts. Accordingly, it is not unlikely that the Netanyahu government will issue its internal crises towards adopting a policy of rapid intensification of aggression and the last shot at Rafah, in an attempt to prevent the disintegration and collapse of the government.
“The ground incursion into Rafah could be a temporary lifeline for the Netanyahu government, but it will not benefit it and will not save it from fracture and disintegration, so that Netanyahu and his government will not achieve his promised victory, which he confirmed is a step away, at a time when Netanyahu’s rivals have no alternative towards political solutions, and therefore “There are expected elections soon for the Knesset, which may be next fall,” Makhoul added.
Disappointment
From the Israeli point of view, Yedioth Ahronoth’s political correspondent, Itamar Eichner, believes that Israel is disappointed with the United States, amid fears among the Netanyahu government about the consequences of Washington agreeing to a ceasefire, as the truce proposal was described as a “trap” that aims to… Promoting and portraying Israel as rejecting truce and the exchange deal.
The political correspondent pointed out that there is a state of anger in Israel over the administration of US President Joe Biden, who gave the green light to the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, to draft a ceasefire agreement.
He added, “The impression in Israel is that Washington cooked up this step and actually promised the mediators guarantees regarding the end of the war, which was not acceptable to Israel, which will continue to work to reach an exchange deal, in conjunction with the war in Rafah.”
According to the political correspondent, senior political sources confirmed that there are currently very large gaps in Hamas’ response, which is not in line with the Egyptian proposal that was accepted by Israel, which was forced to assign a delegation to Cairo in order to verify whether it is possible to fill the gaps.
Writer and political researcher Sari Orabi: Hamas was able to mature a convincing and acceptable agreement that meets its basic conditions, and the ball is in the Israeli court.#Gaza_War #News pic.twitter.com/H63qAM3nDq
– Tel Aviv Tribune Channel (@AJArabic) May 6, 2024
Aside from the political track and the alleged Israeli gaps in the negotiations, the military correspondent for the Israeli Channel 12, Nir Dvori, believes that the military operation in Rafah is an attempt to soften Hamas’ positions, noting that according to the army’s operational plan, Israel will carry out a gradual incursion into Rafah.
He explained that the gradual process in Rafah, in parallel with the continuation of negotiations in Cairo in the presence of the Israeli delegation, could be stopped at any required moment if a real positive development occurred from Israel’s point of view in the negotiations, and in the context of the prisoner release deal. He concluded, “Any military movement in Rafah must “It must be supported by a political step, otherwise it will not be possible to reach the desired result: releasing the detainees and harming Hamas.”