Moments after confirmation that Israeli forces had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, US officials hailed the assassination as an “opportunity” to turn the page on the war and move on to the “day after” for Gaza.
While offering no clear vision of what the ravaged territory’s future might look like, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan described Sinwar’s killing Thursday as a chance to “bring a better day for the people of Gaza, for the people of Gaza.” Israel, the people of the entire region.”
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris echoed that assertion in their own statements.
Israeli leaders, however, had a radically different message. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war was “not over” and promised that Israeli forces would operate in Gaza for “years to come.”
But without any details on Washington’s vision for Gaza’s future and no indication that the Biden administration would significantly pressure Israel toward a political resolution to the conflict, Israel is likely to continue — or even escalate – its military attack, analysts say.
And amid the widespread destruction and carnage in Gaza, any post-war plan will face enormous difficulties in design and implementation.
HA Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called US discussions of a “tomorrow” in Gaza “laughable.”
“There’s no tomorrow,” Hellyer said. “We all have to recognize that the Israelis have made it very clear that they will not leave Gaza and that the military presence will remain, so the idea of any political horizon here is just very, very unrealistic. »
He added that while Washington talks about the future of Gaza, Israel continues its occupation of the territory as well as the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Syria’s Golan Heights, while also invading Lebanon.
Israel “does not show the slightest interest in leaving these places in the near future,” Hellyer told Tel Aviv Tribune.
The real obstacle
While US officials spoke of Sinwar as a “removed obstacle” this week, it is unclear how his killing will affect negotiations for a ceasefire deal that would see the release of Israeli captives in Gaza. , which have not materialized for more than a year.
Hamas has stressed that it supports a deal that would lead to a permanent ceasefire, while Netanyahu has repeatedly pledged to continue the war until total victory.
“Sinwar was not the only obstacle to a ceasefire, or even the main obstacle to a ceasefire. It was Netanyahu and it remains Netanyahu,” Matt Duss, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“Really, it comes down to this: Will the Biden administration finally be willing to put real pressure on Netanyahu both to end the war and to commit that the day after is not simply a permanent Israeli occupation?
U.S. officials say they want the war to end as quickly as possible. However, they are not willing to use the pressure tactics they have, and it is unclear whether Sinwar’s assassination will change that.
The United States supplies Israel with weapons worth billions of dollars, essential to Israel’s military offensive in Gaza and Lebanon. Biden and Harris have rejected calls for an arms embargo on Israel.
“This is the constant missing piece, not only during this war, but historically in America’s handling of the peace process and in its policy toward Israel and Palestine,” Duss said.
“From the beginning, the consequences and costs have been imposed on only one side: the weaker side, the Palestinian side. Israelis enjoy total impunity and can do whatever they want. And that’s part of what led us to this catastrophe.
US officials have discussed various post-war scenarios since the start of the war – including handing over Gaza to a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority – which have been roundly rejected by Israel. More recently, according to an Axios report, the United States has considered an Emirati project to create a transitional authority in Gaza.
But American hopes for a ceasefire or political resolution continue to be dashed amid continued and unconditional support for Israel.
“For the war to end, America’s main ally in the region, the State of Israel, would have to change its ways quite significantly, and the United States has shown no sign of moment over the past year a willingness to use the leverage that he has to actually force this change in behavior,” Hellyer said.
“In fact, the opposite has happened: when DC imposes a red line on the Israelis and they cross it, there are no consequences. I don’t know why anyone would expect this to change in the next few weeks or months.
For example, earlier this year, Biden warned Israel against invading the town of Rafah in southern Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians are crowded.
Israel ignored U.S. calls and launched a massive bombing campaign and ground invasion against the city. Washington responded by insisting that the offensive that virtually depopulated and destroyed the city was not a major operation.
What day after?
Even if a ceasefire is unexpectedly reached, planning for Gaza’s future remains a crucial task in light of the devastation wrought by a year of war.
“Gaza has just been demolished – its infrastructure, its villages, its towns, its buildings, its cities. It’s in ruins,” Duss said. “How to strengthen a credible governance structure? »
In addition to the staggering death toll of more than 42,500, at least 10,000 more people are feared to have died under the rubble. In Gaza, one in 23 people was injured in the last year, and a quarter of them suffered life-threatening injuries that require long-term treatment.
Some 114 hospitals and clinics have become unusable; 150,000 homes have been destroyed and 96 percent of Gaza’s population faces a severe lack of food and no access to clean water, according to Palestinian officials in Gaza.
“What day after?” What is a day after destroying more than 70 percent of Gaza, leaving most people homeless and five percent of the population killed? Zaha Hassan, a human rights lawyer and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“It is very difficult to hear American officials speak, almost in celebration, of the next day for Gaza, as if the guns had fallen silent, which is not the case, and given the scale of what happened.
“How can we even begin to think about how to rehabilitate and remedy what happened? »
Prosecutors at the International Criminal Court (ICC) have sought arrest warrants for Sinwar as well as Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for possible war crimes in the ongoing conflict.
Hassan noted that even though Sinwar is dead, there has been no talk of justice or accountability in US discussions on the future of Gaza. “Where is the justice and accountability for the mass atrocities and likely genocide we saw in Gaza?
The United States has strongly opposed the ICC’s investigation into the Gaza conflict, and some lawmakers have called for sanctions against the court’s prosecutor. It is unclear whether U.S. pressure delayed the issuance of the arrest warrants, which have not yet been approved.
“The situation is simply catastrophic,” Hassan said. “There are so many questions and no answers that you get from the U.S. government.”
Eternal War
No matter how keen the United States is to turn the page on Gaza, unless it is willing to change its approach toward Israel, nothing is likely to change there, experts say.
Ori Goldberg, an Israel-based political analyst, said Israeli officials appear to have no clear goals beyond consolidating their military presence in Gaza — and little interest in what their American counterparts might prefer.
“Israel is doing what it has always done: it bombs, it kills and it assassinates, but there is no plan, there is no progress, there is no impression that anything is happening. produce except death,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“We really don’t have any sort of endgame or any real policy plan for where this is going, and specifically where this is going to go.”
He added that Israel wants the conflict to be a “forever war.”
So far, tepid American and international criticism has proven largely irrelevant to Israel.
“Never has a country so blatantly and brutally violated every rule in the book. “Never has a country done exactly what it wanted, despite various attempts by its friends and allies to intervene,” Goldberg said.
“The United States is on board. »