Days after the return of talk about a prisoner exchange deal between the Palestinian resistance led by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, it seemed that the chances of currently achieving progress in that deal were still at a standstill after the Israeli Broadcasting Authority revealed from an informed source that Israel had not even presented the mediators with Now a document includes her proposal.
The Paris 2 meeting last Saturday did not result in anything significant, as the Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met with the head of the CIA, William Burns, and the director of the Mossad, David Bernie.
The Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported that Pernea presented to the Ministers of the War Council a summary of his meeting with the mediators.
The recent Israeli moves regarding reviving prisoner negotiations surprised the American administration, the strongest supporter of Israel, according to what was reported by the Axios news site.
Israel evasion and evasion
The Israeli moves to try to revive the exchange deal coincided with a series of events that took place in the Israeli arena, as the Minister in the War Council, Benny Gantz, held a press conference in which he threatened to leave the government and thus lift the cover of legitimacy that he granted to Netanyahu by entering into a coalition with him after last October 7.
In turn, Defense Minister Yoav Galant held a press conference in which he asked Netanyahu to present the post-war plan, in addition to broadcasting a video of the female soldiers who were arrested by Hamas in the Al-Aqsa Flood Battle.
Tracking the negotiation process that began months ago shows that Netanyahu followed a strategy of procrastination during all stages of the negotiation and trying to pressure Hamas and the resistance movement to accept what was offered to them, apart from the failure that has been happening on the ground that has accompanied the occupation army since the beginning of its aggression against the Gaza Strip.
During the faltering negotiation process, Israel sought to get rid of any obligations by accusing the mediators of not working seriously to reach a deal. It accused Qatar of not making enough effort to put pressure on Hamas, and of being closer to the positions of Hamas and the resistance in an attempt to cast doubt on the Qatari position, which sought neutrality between the two parties as well. The mediator is assumed.
Egypt was later accused of changing the terms of the agreement, after Netanyahu was surprised that Hamas accepted the latest proposal presented to it during the recent Cairo negotiations.
Israel’s last card was Rafah, which was attacked by the occupation army, and Netanyahu then realized that the course of the war after that had reached a path in which he must face the new reality that was formed in the wake of the Al-Aqsa flood battle and go to the negotiating table to reach the second day of stopping the war.
Hamas…the fierce negotiator
All the rounds of negotiation and deliberate killing of civilians that took place during more than 7 months of war came as an attempt by Israel and its supporters, especially the United States, to pressure Hamas to accept what was offered to it.
Anyone who follows the course of the negotiations realizes that Hamas will not make any concessions on its main conditions, which are stopping the war, withdrawing from the Gaza Strip, and lifting the siege.
According to a member of the Hamas Political Bureau, Izzat al-Rishq, “What is clearly required is to stop the aggression permanently and completely in the entire Gaza Strip, and not in Rafah alone. This is what our people are waiting for, and it is the foundation and starting point for anything.”
According to observers, Hamas realizes that the post-Rafah developments have made the ceiling of resistance rise more than before, while the ceiling of Israel is declining and pressures are increasing on it from several sides, which indicates that the resistance will not change its position.
It also realizes that making concessions in negotiations that do not provide the people of the Gaza Strip with security by stopping the war, withdrawing from the Gaza Strip, and lifting the blockade means losing much of its credit and popular support.
On the other hand, Hamas believes that it has achieved a major achievement, whether on October 7 or during the war, and imposing its equation on the course of the ground war enables it to impose its conditions on Israel and not make major concessions to it.
To date, Hamas remains in a more comfortable position than Israel, which is suffering on the ground, socially, and internationally.
America and Europe…a rescue attempt
On the other hand, after more than 7 months of the war waged by Israel on Gaza, the American administration believes that Israel is in a special dilemma after the ruling of the International Court of Justice to stop the Rafah operation and the decision of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant against Netanyahu and Gallant. Therefore, the Badin administration seeks to help The occupation wants to get rid of this situation by convincing the Egyptians to open the Rafah crossing and allow aid to enter the Strip, which may drop the accusation of causing famine in the Strip.
Europe was also quick to reassure Israel by talking about European observers to participate in managing the Rafah crossing, from which the Europeans withdrew after Hamas won the legislative elections in 2006.
The American and European moves aim to persuade and reassure Netanyahu to return to negotiations, accept some of the resistance’s conditions, and deal with the resistance file and its threat to Israel later.
The United States does not want Hamas to win the war, but it wants to follow methods that do not arouse the ire of the American and European streets, some of which have begun to accuse their governments of colluding with Israel in the extermination of the Palestinian people.
At the same time, Biden is suffering from a continuous decline in his popularity and is affected by the student movement. He is also exposed to “a bid from Republicans claiming that the Biden administration is abandoning Israel, with the aim of increasing their chances in the upcoming elections and obtaining a majority in Congress,” says Professor of Political Science and International Relations Dr. Khalil Al-Anani.
Whatever the course of negotiations currently taking place and what may be presented to the resistance and the attempts to pressure it militarily and politically, the final word remains for the resistance to accept, reject and change the equations on which many of the region’s policies are based.