Israel appears to have been blindsided by Hamas’s announcement on Monday that it had accepted a proposed ceasefire between Egypt and Qatar. But the Israeli government quickly made its position clear: it would not accept this proposal and, to make matters more explicit, its military forces took control of the Palestinian side of Egypt’s border with Gaza, in Rafah.
For many analysts, the message from the Israeli government is clear: there will be no permanent ceasefire and the devastating war on Gaza will continue.
“Israel wants to reserve the right to continue its operations in Gaza,” said Mairav Zonszein, senior analyst on Israel-Palestine for the International Crisis Group (ICG).
She added that an agreement seems impossible as long as Israel refuses to definitively end the war.
“If you make a ceasefire agreement, you will (eventually) need a ceasefire,” she told Tel Aviv Tribune.
The Israeli bombardment of Rafah has the apparent aim of disbanding Hamas battalions and taking control of the crossing between Gaza and Egypt, which Israel accuses Hamas of using to smuggle weapons into the besieged enclave. But humanitarian groups were quick to point out that closing the crossing would have disastrous consequences for more than a million Palestinians living in Rafah, with the majority of them displaced.
And it also jeopardizes hopes of reaching a deal between Israel and Hamas, which Egypt, Qatar and the United States have spent days trying to negotiate, with William Burns, the head of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), heavily involved.
Israel said the terms of the Hamas ceasefire differed from previous proposals it had seen. But analysts say the broader problem is that Israel is unwilling to agree to a permanent ceasefire, even after Hamas releases Israeli prisoners.
“The last few days have proven that Israel is not really in good faith. By the time Hamas agreed to a deal, Israel was ready to blow it up by beginning its assault on Rafah,” said Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, a think tank. in Doha, Qatar. .
“The goal is to destroy Gaza in its entirety,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Selling a victory?
Rafah has become the last refuge for Palestinians fleeing Israeli attacks in the northern and central regions of the enclave. It was not completely spared from the attacks, but the Israeli army had not – until Monday – sent ground forces to occupy the territory.
But after carrying out ground operations in the rest of Gaza, and with Hamas still operational and dozens of Israeli prisoners still detained, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began his attack – although it remains to be determined how far his forces will go in Rafah.
The problem Netanyahu faces is that he promised the Israeli public a victory against Hamas – and that a large majority of Jewish Israelis support an invasion of Rafah, according to a March survey by the Institute Israeli democracy. But the United States, despite its overwhelming support for Israel throughout the war on Gaza, has made clear that it would not support a full-scale invasion.
Israel’s war cabinet could try to satisfy public opinion by continuing the Rafah offensive and initially rejecting a ceasefire, said Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine at the European Council on Foreign Relations. (ECFR).
“It might be too difficult for the Israeli government to accept a proposal that is seen (by the Israeli public) as being in line with Hamas’ conditions,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune. “By entering Rafah, Israel could appear to be saying…we have taken control of the corridor, we have uprooted the terrorist infrastructure and now we can have a ceasefire. »
Clinging to power
Netanyahu’s political career also depends on the continuation of the war in Gaza, analysts told Tel Aviv Tribune. They explained that a permanent ceasefire could lead to the collapse of his far-right coalition, prompting early elections and his removal from power.
Far-right Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have both reportedly threatened to leave and collapse Netanyahu’s coalition if Israel agrees to a captive deal and ceasefire. fire.
Khaled Elgindy, an analyst on Israel-Palestine for the Middle East Institute, believes that Hamas’ acceptance of a ceasefire proposal places Netanyahu in a delicate position since he can no longer claim a reasonable agreement. is not on the table.
“Netanyahu needs the war to continue and expand to stay in power. Personally, he has no incentive,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
ECFR’s Lovatt added that invading Rafah also carries medium- and long-term risks for Netanyahu and Israel. He fears that if Israel significantly escalates its offensive on Rafah, it will lose remaining Israeli prisoners without moving any closer to its stated goal of “eradicating Hamas.”
“If Israel enters Rafah and causes carnage and damage, then it will not be any closer to its strategic objective and I think that will create even more complications for Netanyahu in the weeks and months to come,” he said. told Tel Aviv Tribune.
In May, US President Joe Biden warned Netanyahu against invading Rafah and said such a move would constitute a “red line.”
Lovatt believes the US should penalize Netanyahu for ignoring Biden’s threat. He added that the United States should withhold military aid and make clear that the ceasefire proposal accepted by Hamas is consistent with the one that CIA chief Burns helped negotiate.
“It appears Israel is circumventing a ceasefire proposal that Will Burns worked on. This is a massive move against US diplomacy and I think the US needs to put its foot down,” Lovatt told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“It’s about saving Netanyahu from himself and saving Israel from itself. »
The United States has delayed the sale of thousands of precision weapons to Israel, but Elgindy is skeptical that the United States will be able to apply more pressure to avert a catastrophe at Rafah.
He said Biden still does not seem to understand Israel’s strategic mistake in Gaza or the scale of the disaster it caused.
“Some people in the Biden administration have come to this conclusion (that Israel made a strategic mistake), but they are not decision-makers. They are not the president,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Crisis Group’s Zonszein added that it is unclear how far the United States will go to push Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire. She said the United States appears to have given mediators private guarantees that any ceasefire would eventually lead to a definitive end to the war.
“The United States is very interested in ending this invasion of Rafah and I believe they have the capacity to stop it,” she said. “He just doesn’t want to appear to be helping Hamas, so it’s a delicate situation.”