The occupation announced that its two goals in the war on Gaza were to eliminate Hamas and to recover its Israeli prisoners. It began with intense aerial bombardment of all parts of the Gaza Strip, focusing on its north. Then, after hesitation, it decided to launch a ground attack focusing on the north and center of the Gaza Strip, ending with a humanitarian truce that lasted a week before deciding Resuming this attack on the south. Did the occupation succeed in achieving these two goals more than 80 days after the start of the war, and what is the future of this aggression?
A new stage of aggression… Why?
The occupation then announced its intention to move to the next phase of the aggression, which is to reduce the intensive attacks targeting civilians, and focus on targeting resistance gatherings and tunnels with intense fire, including aerial bombardment, while implementing the repositioning of its forces by deploying them in the north and south of the Gaza Strip in addition to the center, and attached This was done by withdrawing the 13th battalion of the elite Golani Brigade, citing the reorganization of its ranks after the losses it suffered at the hands of the resistance, in addition to announcing plans to demobilize thousands of reserve soldiers.
Coinciding with the visit of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to the entity, a time limit has been set for moving to this stage, not to exceed, according to Israeli and American estimates, the end of next month, i.e. January 2024, with this linked to expanding the entry of humanitarian aid and fuel, and emphasizing not to allow the displacement of civilians. To appease Egypt and Jordan, which opposed it for various reasons, this was accompanied by issuing a resolution from the UN Security Council to increase aid while imposing oversight on it.
This trend came to confirm that Washington gave the occupation the green light to continue its aggression, while changing the means, and to also give it a new opportunity to carry out the mission of eliminating Hamas, but this came as a result of a combination of several factors:
- President Biden’s popularity has declined compared to his rival Trump due to his unlimited support for the entity, in addition to the occurrence of great restlessness in his administration and in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs due to identification with the focused Israeli targeting of civilians, without attempting to place any restrictions on that or using aid to force the Israeli government to adhere to human rights rules in Its war on the resistance. In this context, Biden warned of “real fears around the world that America will lose its moral standing because of our support for Israel,” while Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, considered that Israel risks receiving a “strategic defeat” if it continues to cause heavy losses among the ranks of the Civilians.
- The failure of Western support for the occupation, and the United Nations’ strong criticism of the humanitarian tragedies committed by the occupation in Gaza, including the issuance of a joint statement by the prime ministers of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, considered that “the continued suffering of all Palestinian civilians cannot be the price for Hamas’ defeat.” Meanwhile, the French President’s position changed when he said, “We cannot allow the idea to become entrenched that fighting terrorism means destroying everything in Gaza or attacking the civilian population indiscriminately.” France also supported the United Nations General Assembly resolution two weeks ago, which calls for a humanitarian truce, the entry of aid into Gaza, and a ceasefire, while Germany, Italy, and Britain abstained from voting, thus contradicting the American position rejecting the resolution.
The ugliness of the massacres committed by the occupation, its repeated targeting of hospitals and schools, and its deliberate targeting of civilians in their movements and movements, as well as the massive destruction it inflicted on infrastructure, homes and institutions, contributed to this change.
- Perhaps most importantly, the occupation army failed to achieve an image of victory or recover prisoners, despite its promotion of killing thousands of resistance members and destroying some of its military capabilities. The occupation also failed in attempts to free its prisoners, and in one of them it caused the death of one of them, while three of its prisoners who came to it carrying white flags were killed, in addition to the Al-Qassam announcement that some of them were killed in Israeli raids, which exacerbated the discontent against it among the families of the prisoners, and increased demands for an exchange deal. .
- The success of the resistance is not only in steadfastness, but in inflicting heavy losses on the occupation army, and being able to broadcast videos of targeting tanks and vehicles, ambushing soldiers, and sniping many of them with Qassam rifles. The occupation only acknowledged the killing of about 170 of its forces since the ground campaign until the time of writing this analysis, while the resistance spoke of many times this number, in addition to the destruction of hundreds of occupation military vehicles.
- Fear of the possibility of the war in Gaza expanding into a regional war, in light of the continued escalation by Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis entering the line by targeting Israeli ships in the Red Sea, as well as launching missiles and drones at the entity.
Unrealistic goals and failure
With this field failure, the occupation began to talk about targeting specific figures such as Yahya Al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas movement in Gaza, and Muhammad Al-Deif, chief of staff of the resistance, and his deputy, Marwan Issa, in addition to the military leader in the Al-Qassam Brigades, Muhammad Al-Sinwar, brother of the head of Hamas in Gaza, and other names, so that he could, in the event of his success. By killing someone in order to market an image of victory to his audience, it replaces the goal of eliminating Hamas that he set and has not been able to achieve so far.
Regarding this failure, Dr. Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, said in a report to the Jerusalem Post newspaper on 12/14/2023, “We suffered severe damage, and we are still far from overthrowing Hamas, as the majority of its fighters are still alive.” “And it still has missiles.”
Although he stressed that bombing “government symbols such as parliament, courts, and mosques has largely symbolic value,” Milstein admitted that “Hamas does not need this to continue its fight,” saying, “For Hamas, resistance is much more important than governance. As long as it has weapons and fighters, It does not care whether it can rule Gaza or deliver humanitarian aid.”
As for Knesset member, researcher, and reserve officer Ofer Shelah, he said in an interview with the Hebrew Channel 13, “Continuing the fighting in the current manner will not lead to achieving the goals of the war, that is, neither the destruction of Hamas nor the recovery of the kidnapped.”
He adds: “This is not only due to the decline or loss of the cover of international legitimacy, but because it is a mistake for anyone who believes that the army, in the remaining time, is capable of moving from place to place, killing this or that terrorist, and destroying a tunnel opening here and a tunnel there. This is not “It is possible, in addition to the high cost of the war. This will not be achieved, and the entire history of Israeli wars confirms this conclusion.”
Despite all of this, the occupation government does not acknowledge failure, even if it recently began talking about the ferocity of the resistance and the difficulties faced by the occupation army in light of having to announce larger numbers of dead and wounded, even if they are much lower than reality, and the occupation army admits that until now it is still… Sirens are sounding in central Tel Aviv, and millions of citizens are searching for shelter!
A leak spread of an Israeli soldier speaking in a religious school about the deaths of more than 1,300 occupation soldiers in the ground battle.
In the context of the losses, Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that 5,000 soldiers have been wounded since the beginning of the war on October 7, 2023, and that the Ministry of Defense has recognized 2,000 disabled soldiers so far, while the Times of Israel newspaper reported that “the number of army, police, and security forces soldiers Other casualties reached 6,125, in addition to 20 soldiers killed by friendly fire or accidents during the fighting.
Regarding the weakening of Hamas, researcher Paul Rogers spoke in an article in the British newspaper The Guardian about the difficulties that journalists faced in covering from Gaza, which helped spread Israel’s narrative about the weakening of Hamas, noting that this changed when a different picture emerged.
He referred to the differences between army leaders and politicians, saying, “The leaders of the Israeli army are under enormous pressure to succeed, and they will go as far as the war government allows. These leaders will now realize that despite all of Netanyahu’s rhetoric, Hamas, or at least its ideas, cannot Defeated by military force.
He stressed that “Israel not only risks becoming a pariah state, even among its allies, but it will also work to nurture a generation of opponents to it. Therefore, it needs to save itself, but this will depend, more than anything else, on Biden and those around him.” “They may have to, perhaps prompted by the rapidly changing public mood in Western Europe, realize their role in bringing this war to an immediate end.”
As for the second goal, which is the release of prisoners, Netanyahu is marketing to his audience that his government will not succeed in liberating the Israeli “hostages” held in Gaza “without pressure with military force,” but the reality is that the only way in which the occupation has succeeded in liberating its prisoners is through exchanges under truces. Humanitarian, which strengthens the convictions in the Israeli street to call for an immediate ceasefire and a comprehensive prisoner exchange deal, as Hamas demands.
Despite Israel having all the technology and the help of American, British and French spy planes, all of this did not succeed in liberating any Israeli prisoner by force.
The future of war
With everything that the occupation has endured, and with the ability of the Netanyahu government to mislead its public, and to minimize losses, including the losses of mercenaries, whose presence there are indicators and evidence regardless of their numbers, the enemy’s ability to bear losses is still reasonable, in addition to its continued enjoyment of American support that allows him to continue the aggression.
The occupation forces still enjoy the support of the public, which is dominated by the desire for revenge for the humiliation to which the entity was subjected on October 7, although this factor began to falter as losses continued to mount among the ranks of the army, and the protests of the families of the prisoners increased and their pressure on the Netanyahu government to complete an exchange deal. For the prisoners, in addition to calling on former army commanders and current military commanders to put the issue of liberating the prisoners as a priority over the continuation of the war, which they saw as not succeeding in eradicating Hamas and that it would continue for a long time.
Therefore, it is expected that the aggression will continue for a period that may not exceed the end of next month, with the possibility that the battle will not be prolonged if the occupation does not succeed in achieving a real military achievement, and if its losses continue at a relatively high pace.
In the event of entering the announced fourth phase, the occupation forces will carry out redeployment and form buffer zones on the northern and southern borders of the sector and in its center in an attempt to separate its north from its south, while being able to continue targeting the resistance from these areas without having to enter into a direct confrontation with it to reduce losses. Knowing that this will not succeed in defeating her.
Ron Ben Yishai, an independent Israeli military analyst who previously held several positions in the occupation army, said in a report in Yedioth Ahronoth that the Israeli occupation army was surprised when it discovered that the group of tunnels and columns belonging to Hamas was 500% to 600% larger than its estimates, explaining that it “If the army previously believed that there were 500 kilometers of tunnels and about a thousand wells throughout the entire territory of the Gaza Strip, now it is known that there are thousands of kilometers of tunnels and thousands of columns. These are unimaginable numbers.”
The Israeli writer also spoke, based on statements by field military commanders, about complex and violent fighting in Shuja’iya “from alley to alley” (in the northern area that the occupation said it controlled), as well as in the centre, considering that the most violent fighting is in Khan Yunis (south). .
Therefore, the features of the next stage, in which the occupation will attempt the following:
- An attempt to tighten the noose on the resistance and weaken its military effectiveness, by repositioning its forces and removing them from the neighborhoods and alleys in which Al-Qassam fighters are being targeted, while launching concentrated operations and concentrated aerial bombardment, which is something the occupation is not expected to succeed in, because without entering Overcrowded areas and confrontation with the resistance will not be able to eliminate its effectiveness, and the resistance still possesses the capabilities and tactics capable of thwarting the occupation’s plans, which means drowning in the mud of Gaza, and eventually being forced to withdraw and accept an exchange deal with the resistance.
- Preparing for a political process in which his interests are guaranteed, but he does not yet have a specific vision about it, as he still rejects any role for the authority in Gaza, and disagrees with the Biden administration in its pursuit of what it calls revitalizing the authority and modifying it to carry out its role in the Strip. This will depend mainly on his success in eliminating the resistance, which is unlikely in light of what was mentioned previously. Also, a political process cannot take place without the participation or blessing of the resistance, and the Palestinian Authority, even the modified one that the Americans are talking about, will not be able to rule the Gaza Strip without agreement with Hamas, without a political program, is capable of life.
- An attempt to reduce international criticism of him and the United States by reducing the targeting of civilians. This will depend mainly on the entity’s commitment to what was agreed upon with the Biden administration, or whether this administration will give it another deadline to achieve its impossible goals in Gaza, and this is doubtful.
- Seeking to rule out the possibility of expansion of the conflict, and the participation of Iran’s allies in it, which is what the American administration does not want to be drawn into at the expense of its focus on China and Russia.
Therefore, the occupation has so far failed to achieve its goals, which prompted the occupation’s Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevy, to say that the war will continue for several more months, and that its goals are not easy to achieve, which can be considered a declaration of defeat.
In military science, the failure of the army to achieve its goals is a defeat, and the ability of the organization leading a guerrilla war to withstand eradication is a victory.
Based on this, there will be a new round of conflict in Gaza, in which the Israeli dilemma will be great, and it may lead to political changes in the entity that will make its goals in Gaza more realistic and allow it to stop the war and accept the reality that it is not possible to uproot an idea rooted in the land, nor defeat a people. Determined to obtain his rights.
If this happens, the occupation will pay the required price, which is the release of prisoners and complete withdrawal from Gaza.
