Moscow- The complexity and tension has become the current feature of the Russian Azerbaijani relations, with the emergence of signs of a crisis that is rolling with a noticeable acceleration, observers expect that it will be worse if the two parties do not put an end to it.
Relations between the two countries deteriorated again after the Russian police launched a mass arrests campaign for Azerbaijanis in the city of Yakatarbburg against the backdrop of a criminal case dating back to 2001, but this campaign ended with the death of two people, and he summoned Azerbaijan against its background of its Russian embassy to protest, while Azerbaijani media claimed that they died as a result of being tortured.
The Azerbaijani Parliament also decided not to send its delegation to Moscow to attend the meeting of the Bilateral Committee for Parliamentary Cooperation, and the Azerbaijani Ministry of Culture canceled all Russian cultural events in the Republic.
The interests of the country
In addition, the Azerbaijani Interior conducted searches in the office of the “Sputnik Azerbaijan” agency of Russia’s International Media Agency and arrested two of its working journalists.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev described the situation as “unacceptable”, and demanded Moscow to stop what he described as forms of discrimination, accusing at the same time Russia of supporting Armenia and with measures against his country’s interests.
Aliyev also affirmed his country’s readiness to “defend its interests by all possible means,” which experts considered a clear indication of the preparation of the strength of the strength.
In response, the Kremlin chose not to submit to “provocatives”, and a spokesman for the Russian presidency, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that Moscow hopes to solve tensions through dialogue and maintain friendly relations with Baku.
This is not the first time that Russian Azerbaijani relations have seen tension in recent months. At the end of last December, a aircraft of Azerbaijani Airlines in Aktao in Kazakhstan crashed, and Azerbaijan accused Russia of responsibility for the incident.
The current crisis between the two countries raises questions about the “Allied Cooperation” founded by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in February 2022, and his ability to absorb the negative effects of the crisis that is about to get out of control.
It is no less important than that, the repercussions of tension between Moscow and Baku on the future of the Caucasus region with geopolitical vitality, because it falls on the intersection of the interests of regional and international powers, and whether the crisis will constitute an introduction to Russia’s loss of its grip on the Caucasus.
Azerbaijan accuses Russia of supporting Armenia and its unwillingness to resolve the conflict, while Russia criticizes Azerbaijan for its rapprochement with Türkiye and the West.
While observers believe that cooperation between the two countries will continue in some fields, provided that the caraok issue is resolved, “pessimistic” expectations indicate more escalation of tensions.
Besiege
André Archiv’s expert in Southern Caucasus, Andre Archiv, says that the scene has become open to all possibilities, including Russia’s loss of “friendly” countries in the former Soviet space.
And he adds to Al -Jazeera Net, that Azerbaijan has intensified its diplomatic and media confrontation with Russia in particular after the successful operation launched by the Russian forces to disrupt the Karimchewk oil refinery in Ukraine.
He continues, since the oil and infrastructure fields to transport oil from Azerbaijan to Ukraine are under the control of the Azerbaijani government oil company (Sukar), which in turn is linked to Paku officials through external companies, then the Azerbaijani “anger” can be explained.
Archiv believes that Baku seeks more independence from Russia in its foreign policy, while Russia views the region as a field of its strategic interests, which will necessarily lead to contradictions and tensions, especially in security and energy issues.
It indicates that Azerbaijan has become “self -sufficient”, and that it is in the midst of differences with Russia, which can benefit from the European Union, which stands at the forefront of “hawks” Russia’s enemies, with the minimum position on the Russian -Ukrainian war.
It also does not deny that Moscow’s options may become limited, because the continuation of the dispute with Baku may create a greater harmony between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and thus besiege Russian influence in the southern Caucasus.
Archiv continues, that the Azerbaijani vision is based on the fact that as long as Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine, it has only small resources to restore the balances that served its influence in the region for more than 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“Clash” decision
For his part, Enemor Kermanov, an analyst of the Association of Independent Countries, believes that the southern Caucasus region is heading towards a balance of new powers, where regional countries, such as Azerbaijan and Turkey, see that Russia’s influence is shrinking. Thus, it seems natural for Azerbaijan to start expanding its geopolitical influence in the region at a faster pace waiting for Russia to recognize this role.
According to Kermanov, fabricating or amplifying problems with Moscow comes in the context of a prelude to a subsequent escalation, in which the means and forms of confrontation between the two sides will differ, which will enter into the line of other regional and international powers, concerned with narrowing the geopolitical screws on Moscow everywhere in the world.
According to his saying, the decision of Baku “clash” with Russia is not limited to the humanitarian side of the issue, which includes the protection of Azerbaijani citizens in Russia, but rather another way for Oyif to review his strength and enhance his image in front of the public, and at the same time, to cover up the human rights violations that began to worsen in the country, as he put it.
At the same time, he made it clear that Aliyev’s “bustling” statements towards Russia stems from deeper ambitions, calling on Russia’s decision -makers to “remove the pink glasses”, because the prevailing policy of restraint may cause strategic damage in Russia.