The majority of EU voters will suddenly shift to the right, according to the Euronews poll. Very likely that the next president of the European Commission will be a conservative. The right-wing camp is affected by numerous political divisions, many of which are difficult to resolve.
Conservative forces will win the European elections, according to the Euronews Super Poll (see Euronews Poll Centre). A wide range of parties, from the center-right to the far-right to the ultra-conservatives, are leading polls in major EU countries.
The Liberal Democrats will face a painful defeat, while the center-left seems to be settling into fragile stability, between moderate losses and timid gains, depending on the country.
The first effect of the elections should be the appointment of a conservative at the head of the European Commission, the second a fierce struggle for the composition of already established parliamentary groups and new groups, as well as for alliances intended to manage the affairs of the EU over the next five years.
THE CONTEXT :
The EPP should confirm its relative majority in the European Parliament. However, the far-right and ultra-conservative forces, according to the Euronews Polling Center, should win in France (the RN of Marine Le Pen, member of the ID), in Italy (the FdI of Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of the ECR), in the Netherlands (the PVV of Geert Wilder, member of the ID) and in Romania (the AD of Adela Mirza, member of the ECR).
Forces affiliated with the EPP have been leading the polls since March in Germany (CDU-CSU of Friedrich Merz), Poland (PO of Prime Minister Donald Tusk) and Spain (PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo). The CDU-CSU is in opposition in Germany, as is the Partido Popular in Spainwhile Platforma Obywatelska is the ruling party in Poland.
The Socialists and Democrats group is competing for second place with the far right and the national conservatives.
The two socialist prime ministers of major countries still in power are Olaf Scholz and Pedro Sánchez, in Germany and Spain respectively.
Chancellor Scholz’s SPD is in third position, one seat behind the AfD (far right),
According to polls, Liberal Democrat Renew group set to suffer heavy voter losses across Europe. President Macron’s France, which was his stronghold, could become the battlefield for the defeat of the Renew Europe group.
Renew Europe President Valérie Hayer has expelled Dutch liberals from the VVD, the party of former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, after they agreed with Wilder’s far-right to create a government in the Netherlands .
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s post-fascist party, the FdI, is the largest member of the nationalist-conservative ECR group, alongside Poland’s PiS and Spain’s Vox.
ECR is the acronym for European Conservatives and Reformists. It was created in early 2009 when British Conservatives left the European People’s Party to join other European political movements sharing the same electoral affinities. Anti-European federalism, anti-social policies and a critical stance towards the Franco-German leadership of the EU have become their trademarks.
The Tories left this group after Brexit.
Members of the ECR party fall in the gray area between preserving the most traditional conservative values and extreme right-wing positions. The ECR and the far-right group Identity and Democracy share populist and rowdy rhetoric that is strongly anti-migrant (sometimes xenophobic).
After the Madrid meeting organized by VOX, Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen hinted at a sort of reconciliation after years of competition.
This could be an attempt to find common ground for political discussions following the European elections.
Given the scores their parties are expected to achieve, both leaders realize they have a historic opportunity to crucially influence EU policymaking over the next five years. They don’t want to waste it.
On Tuesday, relations between Marine Le Pen and the AfD deteriorated profoundly after the head of the German far-right party’s electoral list, Maximilian Krah, declared that the SS “were not all criminals”.
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The conservative camp is very divided. Many EPP members are either federalist or strongly pro-European. This is not the case for the majority of members of the ECR and the ID
A center-right and right-wing coalition could cause fundamental European principles or political strategies to fail before their birth, such as the EU’s right to review the rule of law in each member state, the creation of defense structures strengthened European policies and investments in the green economy.
The simple voting numbers suggest a conservative majority. Conservative parties should have a say in the appointment of the Commission president.
Nevertheless, national governments have the legal right to decide who will lead the European Commission. France, Germany and Spain have liberal and social democratic governments respectively. The appointment of a President of the European Commission simply based on the results of the European elections and without the active participation of Emmanuel Macron would not be realistic.
ADVERTISEMENTAt the same time, a restart of the grand coalition between the EPP, Renew Europe and the S&D would go against the will of the EU people expressed during the European elections.
Even a coalition with the EPP, ECR and Renew does not seem compatible. Renew’s big sponsor, French President Emmanuel Macron, could hardly agree with ECR and vice versa.
WHAT THE POLLS SAY
“Emmanuel Macron will push for the traditional majority, the EPP, the S&D and Renew. This is always justified by the figures we see in our forecasts“, explains Francesco Sismondini, from the Euronews Polling Center.
The ultra-conservatives are trying to avoid this outcome by reestablishing good relations between themselves, as we saw in Madrid during the congress organized by Vox.
“Leaders of the ECR and far-right groups, like Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen, can try to create at least some common ground. And to do that, they have to make tough decisions, like breaking up with AfD for Marine Le Pen and become moderate on issues such as immigration, social issues and support for Ukraine”comments Mr. Sismondini.
ADVERTISEMENTThe options are still open. It’s not just a question of hard numbers, but politics has a say, according to Francesco Sismondini:
“As soon as the negotiations start in July, after the elections, we will see that the political groups in the European Parliament are not that committed.”
However, the victory of the far right in some important countries will inevitably influence the appointments to key EU posts, the President of the Commission, the President of the EU Council and the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy of the EU.
“We can predict that right-wing and far-right political groups will strive to gain support from traditional far-right voters. In some cases, they are very strong. Take for example the National Rally, which is very “Macron’s party in France comes in second place, but with a gap of 16% with the National Rally.”concludes Mr. Sismondini.
