Ukraine confirmed on Wednesday that it would maintain its positions on the left bank of the Dnieper, until now under full Russian control. Successes which suggest the possibility of a large-scale counter-offensive in this region, with the objective of Crimea.
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Are they there, are they staying there? Ukrainian soldiers appear to have succeeded in consolidating positions on the other side of the very strategic Dnieper River, an area supposed to be 100% controlled by Russian forces, the Institute for the Study of War said on Wednesday, November 22, which analyzes daily the military situation in Ukraine.
The general staff of the Ukrainian army officially welcomed, on Wednesday, the Ukrainian “successes” on the left bank (Crimean side) of the river. It’s new. “Until a few weeks ago, Kiev remained very discreet about its attempted incursions into territory occupied by Russia in the Kherson region. Now, the general staff is boasting about it,” notes Huseyn Aliyev, specialist in the conflict. in Ukraine at the University of Glasgow.
New winter quarters on the Dnieper
Another proof that the situation seems to be turning to Kiev’s advantage on this part of the front: the subject is fueling tensions in Russia between the government and the “milbloggers”, these often ultranationalist Russian military observers who comment on the conflict on social networks. “Officially, Moscow repeats that all Ukrainian offensives have been stopped in this region, but on social networks, ‘milbloggers’ have started to recognize that Ukraine has made progress there,” summarizes Sim Tack, a military analyst for Force Analysis, a conflict monitoring company.
For almost a year, the Ukrainian army has been trying its luck on the other side of the Dnieper to test Russian defenses. But until October 2023, the soldiers who crossed the river did not stay on this side of the bank. Too risky.
Everything seems to have changed a little over a month ago, with an attack on two localities, Pishchanivka and Poima, located about ten kilometers southeast of Kherson. Since then, Ukraine has been trying to set up winter quarters for a growing number of soldiers in this area. “It even seems that they managed to take control of several villages,” notes Huseyn Aliyev.
The left bank of the Dnieper appears more and more as an extension of the area of the counter-offensive initiated since June 2023 by Ukraine. “The main fighting takes place around the village of Krynky – about thirty kilometers southeast of Kherson – where the Russians still seem to hold their positions,” notes Sim Tack.
Objective: repel Russian artillery
But it is not so much the ongoing fighting that makes the evolving situation dangerous for the Russian defenders. Ukraine has above all “succeeded in securing several crossing points above the Dnieper River, which allows them to strengthen their positions and rotate troops to be more effective in combat,” explains Sim Tack.
Securing passage over a river is, in fact, no easy task. Crossing waterways constitutes one of the most complex and dangerous military operations. This is why the Dnieper represents one of Russia’s best defensive assets in southern Ukraine.
Read alsoThe Dnieper River, a natural barrier difficult for the Ukrainian army to cross
From now on, kyiv can boast of having overcome this obstacle. But not for all his troops. “For the moment, the Ukrainians are able to ensure the security of small groups of infantry, accompanied by a few light vehicles, who cross the river. But the area is not yet secure enough to try to send contingents tanks or heavy artillery,” said Huseyn Aliyev.
And without heavy military equipment, “no large-scale offensive in this region”, assures Sim Tack. Hence the current attempt by Ukrainian troops to free the road on this side of the Dnieper from east to west along the watercourse. Objective: to push Russian artillery as far away from the river as possible in order to put any Ukrainian tanks out of range of Russian cannons in the event that Kiev decides to send them to the other side of the bank.
But the Ukrainian army is not there yet. In the meantime, she doesn’t really know which boot to dance to. There are too many soldiers present not to try to seize new territories. Especially since “the Russian troops present in this region are less well trained and equipped than those in Bakhmut and the Zaporizhia region, where Ukraine has concentrated its main counter-offensive effort”, emphasizes Sim Tack.
Risky choice
Ukrainian soldiers, however, lack the strike force to hope to reach Crimea, the main objective of any offensive in the Kherson region. “For now, these attacks can still be seen as an effort to distract Russia and push it to transfer troops to this area, which would weaken Russian defenses in the Zaporizhia region,” Sim Tack said.
But what if Moscow didn’t take the bait? kyiv should then consider the possibility of launching a major offensive. A risky choice which would involve mobilizing a large number of forces. “We would need at least 100 tanks and several hundred support vehicles in addition to light infantry,” estimates Huseyn Aliyev.
For this expert, kyiv “probably does not have as many forces in reserve and would therefore be obliged to transfer part of them from another part of the front”. Enough to potentially offer counterattack opportunities to Russia.
Furthermore, organizing such an offensive would take time. At the risk of transforming the left bank of the Dnieper into a death trap for the Ukrainian army. The experts interviewed by France 24 evoke the following scenario: Russia would wait for its enemy to mobilize more forces on this side of the Dnieper before sending enough troops to try to surround the Ukrainian contingent and cut off the few possibilities of retreat. “That’s why the Ukrainians are taking their time: to see how the Russians react,” said Sim Tack.
kyiv doesn’t have many alternatives either. “The counter-offensives in Bakhmout and around Zapporijjia are at a standstill and the south of the Kherson region currently appears as the main opportunity to show the world that Ukraine is making progress,” summarizes Huseyn Aliyev. In other words, the Ukrainian army seems condemned to take significant risks if it wants to provide proof that Western support for the counter-offensive has produced tangible results.
