Ramallah- “An illusion and a mirage” was repeated by the head of the Political Bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), Ismail Haniyeh, three times in a televised speech on Wednesday, when he spoke about arrangements in the Palestinian territories without Hamas and the resistance factions.
The phrases “strengthening the Palestinian Authority and reforming its management of Gaza after the war” are almost absent from the statements of American officials at various levels since the start of the aggression on Gaza on October 7, while the Authority says that what should happen after the war is a comprehensive solution.
On Wednesday, the US State Department said, “The Palestinian Authority must be reformed and revitalized to move toward reuniting and governing the West Bank and Gaza Strip.”
Hussein Al-Sheikh, Secretary of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization and Head of the Authority’s General Authority for Civil Affairs, said – in press statements when asked about the return of the Authority to Gaza – that what is required first is to stop the war, and then “the solution must be comprehensive, including ending the occupation and establishing the Palestinian state.” ..) Partial solutions no longer have a place, and security and military solutions have proven to fail.”
In 2007, Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip after a confrontation with the authority in Ramallah, and since then a division has prevailed in which Hamas runs the Gaza Strip, while a government formed by the Fatah movement runs the occupied West Bank.
Deployment of Palestinian police forces in areas in the northern Gaza Strip #Gaza After a partial withdrawal of the occupation mechanisms pic.twitter.com/Z1TMGO6XIB
– Tel Aviv Tribune Egypt (@AJA_Egypt) December 14, 2023
Messages from Gaza
At the height of talk about “after Hamas,” the day after the war, the Gaza Police deployed its personnel to the north of the Gaza Strip on the 69th day of the war, in a move that indicates that Hamas’s power and rule remain despite the destruction, in conjunction with a statement by the Follow-up Committee of the National and Islamic Forces in the Gaza Strip, congratulating the movement on its anniversary. Its 36th launch, and it denounces “what some people are planning under the name of the day after the war.”
At the Palestinian street level, the results of an opinion poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research – which published its results on Wednesday – showed that a majority of Palestinians (64%) oppose the Authority’s participation in meetings to discuss the future of the Gaza Strip, while 60% said they prefer Hamas taking control of the Gaza Strip after the war, and 7% % preferred the control of the authority led by President Mahmoud Abbas.
72% expected Hamas to succeed in returning to rule the Gaza Strip after the war, despite Israel’s declared intention to eliminate it, compared to 23% who did not believe that.
In light of the discrepancy between the Palestinian and American positions, and the Israeli rejection of everything that is Palestinian, Tel Aviv Tribune Net spoke to 3 analysts about the possibility of the Authority accepting the rule of Gaza after the war and the chances of achieving this if it agrees.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Near East Henry Wooster during a press conference for the Foreign Press Center in New York: First, the United States does not support the reoccupation of Gaza; Second, governance in Gaza must be Palestinian-led; Third, we stress that there will be no forced or permanent displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Fourth, we reject…
– US State Department (@USAbilAraby) December 9, 2023
Regional will
Writer and political analyst Nabhan Khraisha does not believe that the United States’ insistence on the return of national authority to the Gaza Strip stems from the American administration itself, despite its announcement more than once of the need to renew the authority and its leaders. Rather, he believes that this desire comes from “its regional alliances, specifically Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf, which refuses to exclude the authority from any arrangements, even if in its current state it is weak and unpopular.”
According to the analyst’s own assessment, the pressure to return power to Gaza will be linked to reforms such as elections, especially presidential and legislative elections, in addition to the election of the Revolutionary Council and the Central Committee of the Fatah movement to renew the leadership.
Kreisha believes that if there is American and European pressure, the legislative elections that were postponed in 2021 could be held because Israel did not allow them to be held in occupied Jerusalem.
But he said that the scenario of elections and the return of power to Gaza would not happen without a change in the Israeli political system, suggesting that current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Likud party, and his extremist partners would pay the bill for the war.
Kreisha added that what moves Israel to war is not the declared slogan of eliminating Hamas, but rather “revenge, hatred, and the feeling of losing advantage in the Middle East,” and therefore “Israel has nothing to say the day after the war or a strategy for exiting Gaza.”
He added, “After the war, Netanyahu will come down the ladder, and Benny Gantz’s star will rise as a secular Zionist who is not associated with religious parties, and who has the ability to give and take (flexibility in negotiation) and may make political concessions, but opening a political path requires at least a year.”
Recognized entity
The repeated American talk about rehabilitating the Authority and returning it to Gaza is linked to the world’s awareness of the importance of a political solution, and the Authority is the internationally recognized body, according to the assessment of political analyst Azzam Abu Al-Adas.
The same political analyst adds that the world has begun to realize the importance of establishing a Palestinian state to resolve the conflict, which is the only solution on offer now, and the Authority is the only official Palestinian body on the ground to which the world can turn and address.
Abu Adass continues that the occupation does not want to enable it in Gaza, and if it sees seriousness in moving towards a Palestinian state, it may resort to dismantling the Authority and undermining its power in the West Bank, as the Israeli mood does not want to see a Palestinian state, neither before or after October 7.
He points out that the Authority does not control the West Bank, and polls showed that it was incubated by the Fatah movement at the lowest levels “due to political and economic failure and the spread of corruption.”
Regarding the possibility of the authority accepting offers to return it to Gaza, the same spokesman said: It accepts, wants, and has begun to lay the groundwork for that, but the question is, did it take guarantees?
Abu Adass added that the West Bank is now outside the control of the authority, and the occupation army is carrying out its duties, and for 3 days it has not left the Jenin camp, while its members are closing the doors of their headquarters. Is this authority capable of controlling Gaza?
Obstacles to power
In turn, writer and political analyst Sari Orabi believes that the only thing preventing the authority from responding to the offers of the Gaza administration “is not its lack of desire, but rather the reality of the Gaza Strip and the humanitarian catastrophe and the huge duties and responsibilities that result from it.”
He continued that what also prevents the authority is the enormous power that Hamas enjoys. “This war, whatever its outcome, will not be the elimination of Hamas or stripping it of its military power.”
However, he says that the war has not ended, “and it is too early for the authority to express clear approval regarding its acceptance to go to Gaza, and to talk about a broader political solution than just managing Gaza.”
Regarding the reasons for the American insistence on returning it despite its weakness, Orabi says that the American administration is looking for a political way out for what is happening inside the Gaza Strip. “It gave Israel a free hand to achieve its declared goals: eliminating Hamas and restoring Israeli prisoners held by the resistance, but now, after 70 days of war, it seems to the administration “The US states that Israel is unable to achieve these goals.”
He continued that continuing this war further without a clear horizon for achieving these goals “would expand the confrontation into a regional war, and harm the image of the United States internationally, and therefore the American administration may have reached the conviction that continuing the war is an adventure that is no longer guaranteed or calculated.”
According to Orabi, America believes that time has run out for Israel, “so it is carrying out political reconnaissance operations to try to achieve political achievements that the war did not achieve, including creating a new security reality or a new administration inside the Gaza Strip, and here renewed talk about the Authority as the first party comes to mind, even though it is rejected.” Israel, and its rehabilitation.