According to new NASA data, the Asteroid 2024 YR4 has approximately 1.5 % risk of touching the earth in 2032.
NASA has published new data that suggests that the asteroid 2024 YR4 represents a significant risk for some of the most densely populated regions in the world if it were to hit the earth.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 could strike somewhere along a “risk corridor” that NASA has identified as the east of the Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the ocean Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia.
Among the cities located on this trajectory are Bogota, Colombia, whose agglomeration has more than 11.6 million inhabitants, the agglomeration of Mumbai, India, where 18.4 million people live, and Dhaka, in Bangladesh, which has more than 23.9 million inhabitants.
The American space agency raised 3.1 % the risk that the asteroid hit the planet in 2032, before Review it downwards to 1.5 % a few hours later After having collected more information on the asteroid orbit.
The European Space Agency (ESA) makes a similar forecastestimating the risk at around 1.4 %.
What is the asteroid 2024 YR4?
The asteroid was Discovered on December 27, 2024 by a telescope funded by NASA in Rio Hurtado, Chilebecause he was “Approached closely” From Earth to Christmas, according to the Center for the Study of the Geocroisors of NASA (CNEOS).
At the time, scientists had declared that it was difficult to predict whether or not the asteroid would collide with the earth.
Although the exact size of the asteroid cannot yet be confirmed, Scientists estimate that it has a size between 40 and 90 meters.
Scientists awarded a note of 3 out of 10 on the Torino scale to 2024 YR4 – the scale used by the CNEOS to assess the potential threat of the impact of an asteroid on earth – but that Ci could be revised downwards by future statements.
What will happen next?
The agency said thatIt will continue to observe the asteroid until April, after which it will be too far from the earth until June 2028.
The James Webb space telescope will determine the exact size of the asteroid in March 2025 in order to specify the probability of a collision, says NASA.
If the level of threat increases, emergency services around the world will be alerted to the risk of impact and will benefit from the support of the Coordination Center close to ESA land, the agency said in a statement.
Space agencies could also carry out planetary defense missions.
In 2022, the NASA Dart mission intentionally collided with the small asteroid Dimorphos and successfully modified its orbital trajectory.
ESA launched its Hera mission in October to return to the Dart mission accident site on Dimorphos and collect data. These will be used to contribute to the implementation of a planetary defense system against future threats linked to asteroids.
