As Israel’s war on Gaza continues into its fourth month, fears of a regional escalation are growing, with multiple nations and armed groups targeting each other’s territories and shared waters, and the United States strengthening its capabilities military in the region.
Last week, Iran launched attacks in Syria and Iraq after members of its elite forces were killed in the Syrian capital Damascus, allegedly in Israeli attacks, while the United States and The United Kingdom has carried out several attacks against the Houthis in Yemen.
Tens of thousands of people have been displaced in Lebanon and Israel due to an exchange of fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters on their border.
Last week, tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Pakistan threatened to open a new military front, but diplomacy has helped calm tempers, for now.
Here’s what you need to know about the military hostilities that have erupted in the region since Israel’s war on Gaza began on October 7.
The Red Sea and Yemen
The Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen has targeted commercial and military vessels linked to Israel in the Red Sea in response to Israel’s war in Gaza.
Houthi officials have demanded that Israel end the war and allow humanitarian aid into the Palestinian enclave. The group’s first attack took place on November 19, 2023, when they took possession of a cargo ship called Galaxy Leader, which records show is owned by an Israeli businessman.
The targeting of commercial vessels by the Houthis has prompted several shipping companies to suspend operations in the Red Sea, instead embarking on a longer and more expensive journey around the African continent.
In response, the United States, Israel’s closest ally, has carried out several attacks in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. On Wednesday morning, the US military carried out new strikes targeting Houthi anti-ship missiles.
Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah
Almost daily cross-border artillery fire and drone attacks between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters threaten to open a new front in Israel’s war. Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border have been forced to flee their homes.
The Lebanese armed group said its attacks were an act of resistance in solidarity with the 2.3 million people in Gaza who are under siege and suffering daily Israeli bombardments that have killed more than 25,000 people. Warning Hezbollah against cross-border attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would turn Beirut into Gaza.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has not declared all-out war against Israel, but said his forces were not afraid to get involved.
Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon have killed more than 200 Hezbollah fighters, journalists and civilians, while displacing more than 80,000 people from the region, the United Nations reported in December. At least 15 Israelis were killed in Hezbollah strikes.
Israel-Syria
Israel has launched repeated air raids on Syria since its war on Gaza, reigniting tensions between the two countries. It claims its attacks are a response to threats coming from Syrian military positions and infrastructure linked to Iran.
Tehran is President Bashar al-Assad’s main military backer in the war that broke out in 2011.
The attacks mainly targeted the capital, Damascus, and Aleppo. Last Saturday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said five of its “military advisers” were killed in an airstrike on a residential building in Damascus. Razi Mousavi, a senior adviser to the IRGC, had previously been killed in an Israeli attack outside Damascus.
The two countries have been engaged in repeated military clashes since the creation of Israel in 1948. Israel still occupies the Syrian Golan Heights, which it captured in the 1967 war.
Iran-Iraq
Iraq has criticized Iran after the Revolutionary Guard attacked what it calls an Israeli spy center in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. The event prompted Baghdad to recall its ambassador to Tehran, while Iran insisted the attack was aimed at deterring threats from Israeli spies.
Prior to that, Iran-backed groups had carried out numerous attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria. The United States responded by targeting and killing the commander of an Iraqi armed group on January 4. The incident prompted Iraq to reconsider hosting international troops.
The United States carried out strikes in western Iraq on Tuesday against three targets linked to Kataib Hezbollah, an armed group backed by Iran.
Israel-Gaza
More than 85 percent of Gaza’s population has been displaced since Israel launched its brutal war on October 7 following the Hamas attack inside Israel. Israeli attacks have targeted schools, hospitals and residential buildings, almost completely destroying civilian infrastructure. UN agencies say people are facing a famine-like situation as Israel has rejected calls for a ceasefire.
The surprise Hamas attack killed at least 1,139 people, according to an Tel Aviv Tribune tally based on official Israeli statistics. Hamas also captured around 240 people. More than 100 people were freed during a four-day truce between Israel and Hamas in November.
Iran-Pakistan
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted armed group Jaish al-Adl in Panjgur, Pakistan’s Balochistan province, leading to Pakistani retaliation against armed Baloch separatists in Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province.
This led to a rapid deterioration in diplomatic relations, with ambassadors withdrawing. However, both countries subsequently engaged in de-escalation efforts, with the ambassadors returning to their posts on January 26.
Could the situation deteriorate further?
Experts warn that if Israel’s war on Gaza does not end, the conflict could spill over and attract new actors.
“Without a ceasefire in Gaza, it is difficult to see how the situation could improve. And I think the simmering pot is now boiling over, and it’s just going to get worse with time. It’s really a very dangerous moment,” Hassan El-Tayyab, legislative director for Middle East policy at the Friends Committee on National Legislation, a Quaker advocacy group in Washington, D.C., told Tel Aviv Tribune at the start of the month.
US foreign policy also appears committed to continued military activity, after President Joe Biden promised last week that US attacks would continue despite its failure to deter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Iran’s involvement in several clashes has also increased fears that it could serve as a hub for regional conflict, particularly because of its ties to armed groups outside its own borders.
Western and regional authorities, as well as analysts, generally agree that Iran seeks to avoid a direct military confrontation with the United States or Israel.
However, the country appears willing to use its proxies to engage and distract the military forces of these adversaries in the region.
The main risk of escalation arises from a potentially misguided attack, executed either by Iran and its proxies or by the United States and its allies.
