Washington DC – Support for Joe Biden among Arab American voters in critical states fell during the Gaza war, a new poll shows, the latest sign that the US president’s support for Israel could hurt him in the November election.
The Arab American Institute (AAI) poll, released Thursday, shows support for Biden among Arab Americans standing at just under 20 percent.
Biden won nearly 60% of the Arab-American vote in the 2020 US presidential election, which saw him defeat his Republican predecessor and 2024 challenger Donald Trump to win the White House.
James Zogby, president of the IAA, said Arab Americans “still seethe over the pain of Gaza,” where more than 36,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli military attacks since early October.
“And they don’t want to put that aside,” Zogby said during a webinar unveiling the poll results. “Just because you say, ‘You don’t remember four years ago how bad it was (under Trump)?’ They respond: “Don’t you see how serious the situation is right now?”
Biden has faced months of protests and criticism for his unequivocal military and diplomatic support for Israel during the Gaza war.
Despite growing anger over the Israeli offensive and warnings that he risks losing re-election because of his stance, the US president’s policies remain largely unchanged.
Despite the relatively small size of the Arab-American community – the AAI estimates that about 3.7 million Arab-Americans live in a country of about 333 million people – it remains a key voting bloc in several states which could decide the 2024 race.
During the Democratic primaries, Biden faced an “uncommitted movement,” which saw Americans vote in protest to show their opposition to the administration’s policies toward Gaza.
The campaign has gained traction in several important states, including Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Respondents in Thursday’s AAI poll live in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia, all key states that could decide what is expected to be a neck-and-neck matchup between Biden and Trump in November.
Among Arab American voters surveyed, regardless of party affiliation, 40 percent said they were “not at all enthusiastic” about the election.
An even higher percentage of Arab American voters aged 18 to 34 47 percent said the same, while 50 percent of Democratic Party voters also said they were “not enthusiastic at all.”
Zogby said this lack of enthusiasm should be particularly concerning for Biden, whose Democratic Party has historically enjoyed support from young people, progressives, Black voters and other communities of color.
“I’ve seen voters stay home most often when they’re not feeling inspired,” Zogby said. “And so the binary choice that these voters will have in November is not Trump or Biden – it’s to vote or not to vote. »
Meanwhile, a recent New York Times/Siena poll showed Biden trailing Trump in the key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.
The decline in support among young people and racial minorities was fueled by several factors, including the cost of living and the war in Gaza, the poll found.
Earlier this month, a YouGov poll commissioned by Americans for Justice in Palestine Action also found that one in five Democratic and independent voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin said they were less likely to vote for Biden because of his Gaza policy.
The group called this figure a “potentially critical margin.”
The war in Gaza was the top issue among Arab American voters surveyed in the latest AAI poll, with 60 percent citing it as their top concern, followed by the cost of living.
About 57 percent of respondents also said Gaza would be “very important” in determining how they vote in November.
In total, the AAI calculated that Biden could see a potential loss of 177,000 Arab American votes in the four states where the poll was conducted, compared to the 2020 election.
That includes a drop of 91,000 Arab American votes in Michigan, where Biden won the last election by just over 154,000 votes.
Zogby said the poll should serve as a warning to the president while noting that respondents said it was not too late for him to change his policies.
About 80% of Arab American Democrats said they would be more likely to vote for Biden in November if he demanded an immediate ceasefire and unfettered aid to Gaza or suspended diplomatic support and transfers arms to Israel to force an end to the war.
“People want to see that the president actually hears their concerns and actually takes control,” Zogby said.
