Thunderclap in the middle of the American electoral campaign. After more than 12 hours of deliberation over two days, a jury of 12 citizens found Donald Trump guilty of all 34 counts against him in his highly publicized trial for concealing a bribe late Thursday. afternoon in New York.
After being the first ex-president of the United States to be hauled before the courts in a series of criminal trials, the populist makes history once again by becoming the first ex-president to receive a guilty verdict for a crime , and this, while he aspires to return to the White House in the context of the next American presidential election.
“This is all a disgrace,” declared Donald Trump as he left the Manhattan court, after the verdict was revealed. “It was a rigged trial led by a compromised and corrupt judge”, accusations that he has constantly repeated since the start of this trial, without however providing proof.
The former reality TV star was facing justice, accused of having falsified accounting documents in order to conceal the payment of a sum of $130,000 to ex-porn actress Stephanie Clifford, aka Stormy Daniels. The bribe was intended to protect his run for the White House in 2016 by buying Ms.me Clifford about an adulterous relationship he allegedly had with her in 2006, during a golf tournament in Nevada.
It is extremely rare to impose a prison sentence for a first offense of this type
Punishment to come
The guilty verdict for the crimes committed could technically earn the billionaire a prison sentence, a scenario however unlikely, estimates law professor Gregory Germain, joined by The duty at Syracuse University, New York. “It is extremely rare to impose a prison sentence for a first offense of this type,” said this specialist in white-collar crime. What’s more, sentencing a presidential candidate to prison during an election could create a constitutional crisis and would be extremely difficult to enforce, due to the protection that must surround an ex-president and the Party’s ultimate candidate. Republican for next November’s election.
With a verdict now in his pocket, Judge Juan Merchan, who presided over this historic trial, is expected to pronounce the sentence imposed on Donald Trump next July, just days before the launch of the Republican National Convention.
“I think it’s much more likely that the judge will sentence Trump to probation,” Mr. Germain added.
The guilty verdict, which the 77-year-old billionaire should quickly appeal, will not prevent him, within the American legal and constitutional framework, from continuing his electoral campaign, including if he were to be sentenced to prison.
In the minutes following the announcement of the Republican’s conviction, the White House reacted soberly by affirming “to respect the rule of law” and saying that it had “no additional comments” to make. Earlier, Joe Biden’s campaign team recalled that “there is only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: through the ballot box”, underlined in the wake of the verdict Michael Tyler, spokesperson for the president’s campaign. “Delinquent or not, Trump will be the Republican candidate,” he added in a press release.
“Unprecedented situation”
“We are faced with an unprecedented situation in modern American politics,” Jay Sexton, a historian at the University of Missouri, said in an interview. By once again deviating from a political norm (by the fact that a presidential candidate was found guilty of a crime), this trial confirms the collapse of old political structures under the pressure of a new context. » A context fueled by the rise of populist nationalism in the United States and other countries, the overthrow of decades of political traditions, the wars and political violence that are taking place almost everywhere and the “precipitous decline” of the relative power of the United States on the international scene, he said. All under the influence of social networks and instant communication, which encourage excess indignation and emotion.
It’s only a very small percentage of voters who should move away from him, no more than 3 or 4%.
Jay Sexton believes, however, that the verdict, despite its symbolic charge, should not weigh heavily on the continuation of the American populist’s presidential campaign. “All the previous scandals that have affected Donald Trump have had the effect of strengthening his hold on the Republican Party,” he said. His guilt in this trial should lead to the same result. »
The vast majority of American voters, 67%, said that Donald Trump’s guilt would not change their voting intentions next November, according to a College Marist poll conducted on behalf of the public radio and television networks NPR and PBS from May 21 to 23, the results of which were revealed Thursday.
Worse, 15% indicated that the former president’s conviction would make them more likely to vote for him, compared to 17% who admitted to being less likely to vote for him if he were convicted.
“It’s only a small percentage of voters who should move away from him,” says Mr. Sexton, “no more than 3 or 4%.” But in the context of a close election, this is a level of disaffection that could nevertheless change the result. »