The Turkish link to Libya is not limited to the historical, cultural, and demographic dimensions, but all of this goes beyond geostrategic aspects related to the interests of the two countries together, and their ability to maximize their share of the wealth of the area surrounding them.
Libya is similar to Syria in terms of strategic importance for Turkey, just as Syria represents an important strategic depth for Anatolia, and directly affects its security and stability, so is the situation for Libya, which is an important marine strategic depth, as its explanation will come in detail.
But Libya has been living today on the impact of security turmoil since the evening of Monday, May 12, after the killing of the head of the stability support agency of the Presidential Council, Abdul -Ghani Al -Kakali, “Ghaniya”, in the capital, Tripoli, coinciding with clashes of forces affiliated with the stability support apparatus, and another from the “444 fighting” of the Ministry of Defense.
Although the Prime Minister, Abdel Hamid Al -Duba, thanked the next morning the army and police forces for “their great achievement in the extension of security and the imposition of the state authority in the capital,” the clashes were soon renewed again, before the Ministry of Defense of the Unity Government in Tripoli announced a ceasefire, and deployed neutral regulatory forces at the seam points.
This security fragility prompted the United Nations Mission to Libya to form a “truce committee”, in cooperation with the Libyan Presidential Council, to take care of the ceasefire reached.
The turmoil was not limited to the security situation, but extended to the political space, where the parliament in the east, which is chaired by Aqila Saleh, tried to expand towards the West, where the internationally recognized Dubai government is, where he announced the sorting of the files of candidates to take over the prime minister, in cooperation with the Supreme Council of State in Tripoli, and headed by Khaled Al -Mashri.
The Libyan capital also witnessed popular demonstrations demanding the departure of Dubai, while press reports indicated the resignation of ministers and deputies.
This turmoil opened the door wide open to all scenarios, which can be ravaged by a country that originally suffers from the regional division, and is disputed by two governments, one in the West led by Dubaya and has international recognition, and the second in the east headed by Osama Hammad, and is supported by the armed forces that lead, Khalifa Haftar and his sons.
Due to the Turkish involvement in the crisis for years through agreements and a balanced military presence, the question of what Ankara could provide to contain the crisis, and the alternatives in its possession to prevent the country from entering chaos, ravaging its security and stability, and affecting the Turkish strategic interests there.
The strategic importance of Libya
The memorandum signed by Turkey with the government of the former Prime Minister, Fayez al -Sarraj, known as the “Memorandum of Understanding regarding the demarcation of marine spaces”, played a pivotal role in restoring Turkey in the Mediterranean, after decades of compulsory isolation and trying to deprive it of the wealth of the eastern Mediterranean.
In 2004, the two professors at the University of Seville, Spain, Juan Luis Suarez de Viviro, and Juan Carlos Rodriguez Matius, published a study entitled: “Naval Europe and the expansion of union membership: geopolitical prospects”, a map of the marine situation of countries that wanted to join the union, such as; Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Turkey.
This study has been known as a map known later as a “Seville map” that granted Turkey a narrow naval area in the coast of Antalya, although it has the longest coast in the eastern Mediterranean, at a time when it was granted to each Greek island a pure economic zone with a length of 370 km, including the Castleso Island (Mays), which is only from the Turkish coasts with only two kilometers, in separation from the Greek coasts only About 580 km!
Here the agreement to demarcate the maritime border with Libya came to give Ankara a strong instrument in claiming its rights, especially in the wealth of the eastern Mediterranean, after obtaining a pure economic zone estimated at thousands of kilometers according to the agreement.
In a study published by the Communications Department at the Presidency of the Turkish Republic in 2020, entitled: “A strategic step in the eastern Mediterranean equation”, it considered that the agreement was the first of its kind that Turkey expected with a country overlooking the Mediterranean Sea other than the Turkish Cyprus, regarding the issues of the continental shelf/ pure economic areas.
The study also added that the agreement preserved the rights of Turkey and Libya in the Mediterranean, and enabled Ankara to send a message that it “would not allow the fait accompli in the region.”
For all of this, Ankara was not expected to be monitored and followed up, especially with its retaining forces in the western region, according to the security and military cooperation memo signed in 2019.
Turkish alternatives to solve the crisis
Although Turkey is an official ally of the Libyan government in the West, and its military support in repelling the aggression of Haftar and the countries supporting it on the capital, Tripoli, in June 2020, more than a year after the attack began at the time, Ankara worked in the subsequent years to communicate with the military commander, Khalifa Haftar in the east, which led to the visit of his son, Saddam Haftar, the Turkish capital, Ankara last April, where he was received by a minister Turkish defense, referred to Golar, Commander of the Land Forces, Seljuk Bayrakdaroglu.
While his second son, Belkacem Khalifa Haftar, Director of the Fund for Development and Reconstruction of Libya, signed contracts with Turkish companies to implement projects related to infrastructure and construction.
In addition, Turkish -Egyptian relations were evolving, after reaching the point of military confrontation in Libya in 2020.
For all of the above, it is natural for the Turkish strategy to differ from what it was about five years ago, as Ankara’s policy is heading to follow the policy of “managing differences” with friendly countries, in a way that does not allow the deterioration of inter -relations, and preserves common interests.
In a press interview by the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, published by John Africs in mid -May, Fidan disclosed his country’s strategy to confront the division crisis, and how to restore meat between the components of the Libyan people, as follows:
- First: Agreeing to form a satisfactory government for both sides, paved the way for the elections, expressing his refusal to hold the elections without “maturity of a political process.”
Fidan considered that the holding of the elections in light of the current atmosphere may be “the subject of competition between the eastern and western camps”, meaning that it will turn into regional competitiveness and not between the components of one people, stressing that Ankara is working to empower that option.
- Second: Adopting the style of dialogue with the forces influencing the Libyan scene to prevent the renewed military confrontations again, as Fidan said: “We speak regularly with Russia and our Libyan partners in the east. Our priority over the past five years has avoided the military confrontation between East and West.”
The important observation here and the description of the political and military forces present in the Libyan East with “partners”, which means that Türkiye succeeded in bridging the relationship after a few years of stopping the military confrontations, and even redefined the active forces in the east.
This means that its current position between the West and the East allows it to play an effective role in mediation between the two sides to end the division and unify the army and the security services, and this is an important progress calculated for Turkish diplomacy.
- Third: Warning of more militarization, and Fidan’s reference here to the Russian forces, which was noticed that it was transferred part of its mechanisms and military equipment from Syria to Libya, after the fall of the Assad regime last December.
The Turkish strategy in general works to empty the region from the foreign forces, as it is making great efforts to persuade Washington to withdraw its forces from Syria, and has rushed to form a joint security mechanism with Jordan and Syria, to fill the void of the American forces after its departure, to confront the Islamic State and prevent its expansion again.
Regional cooperation
On the same Syrian pattern, Türkiye may work in the Libyan file, to reduce or end the Russian military presence, and to reunite the country through a regional mechanism that takes into account the strategic interests of Libyan neighboring countries.
In my estimation, Turkey here needs coordination with Egypt, by establishing an in -depth strategic dialogue on ending the Libyan crisis.
The relations between Ankara and Cairo are witnessing steadfast growth, as they exceeded the economic scope, to other strategic and military ranges, where the Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Army, Ahmed Fathi Khalifa, visited Turkey, and met his counterpart, Matin Gourak, this month, and the two parties held the first meeting of a high -level military dialogue between the two countries, and planned annually at the level of the Presidency of the two countries.
Such meetings can be repeated at the levels of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the intelligence services in the two countries, to reach common visions to solve the stirred region crises in Libya, Gaza, Sudan, and others.
Summary
The calm in Libya these days is a fragile calm, which may collapse at any moment, whether in Tripoli, or between East and West, and it is important for Turkey – with distinct positioning within Libya – proactive steps to defuse the crisis, take serious steps, with local partners and neighboring countries, to restore unity to the torn state, integrate divided institutions, and prevent the fighting.
The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.