Ukraine has forced Russian fleet units to move their main areas of operation to the eastern Black Sea, the British Ministry of Defense believes.
Russian officials and state media have largely refrained from publicly discussing the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely in an effort to avoid addressing the Russia’s failure to achieve its stated war aims at significant human costs, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The end of February also marks the 10th anniversary of the Russian invasion and subsequent illegal annexation of Crimea.
The British Ministry of Defense believes that Russia’s tactics against Ukraine’s creative war in the Black Sea are not up to the mark.
At the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Russian Navy retained its freedom of maneuver throughout the Black Sea, particularly in the northwest.
As Ukraine has successfully used asymmetric solutions to compensate for the absence of a traditional navy – such as guided missiles and unmanned ships – the Russian navy has repeatedly been forced to reassess its appetite for risk.
Ukraine continued to push Russian threat perception to new heights through combined strike activities on land and at sea, forcing units of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to shift their main areas of operation to east of the Black Sea.
This map from the UK Ministry of Defense shows Russia’s main areas of maritime operations in the Black Sea:
The first area is where the Black Sea Fleet operates with less risk. The second zone presents an increased risk. The third zone poses a higher risk and the fourth zone is where operations in the Black Sea are prohibited.
The British Ministry of Defense said in late December that Russia had lost around 20% of its Black Sea fleet over the past four months. At the strategic level, Ukraine’s approach has prevented Russia from interfering with its maritime trade routes.
