The Russian newspaper “Nezavisimaya” reported that the Israeli government informed the Pentagon of its intention to establish a security zone in the border areas with Lebanon to prevent attacks by the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in Lebanon. In response, the administration of US President Joe Biden asked its ally to give time to diplomats, while its representatives fear the expansion of the scope of the conflict in Gaza.
A report for the newspaper prepared by writer Igor Subbotin stated that the Israeli government called for an American-brokered agreement with Lebanon that includes the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces to a distance of 10 kilometers to prevent militants from bombing Israeli positions along the border or repeating the scenario of the Hamas attack on the seventh of last October.
The most sensitive sites
The newspaper said that during these weeks, Lebanese Hezbollah is trying to target the most sensitive sites of the Israeli army as an expression of solidarity with the Palestinian people who are being subjected to harsh Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip.
She added that Israel, for its part, also proposed applying the concept of a buffer zone to the territory of the Gaza Strip to prevent the recurrence of ground infiltration into its territory, and the Biden administration and the countries of the Arab world took note of this, but did not provide them with any details, which raised many doubts about the real goal of the initiative.
The writer stated that a study conducted by the Stratfor Center, which is close to the American intelligence services, rules out that Israel will complete an effective operation in Lebanon before the end of the operations in Gaza, and that even if Israel prefers to use secret or limited escalation and diplomatic pressure to establish stable relations with Hezbollah and Hamas on the northern border, and on Despite the major military provocations carried out by militants, the Israeli army is currently suffering from “exhaustion” with the continuation of major ground operations in the Gaza Strip.
Israel is trying to avoid war in the region
Stratfor analysts believe that the Netanyahu government wants to avoid war in the region, as they say that while reaching a partial or informal diplomatic agreement is possible, Hezbollah is unlikely to withdraw from the southern border or pressure Hamas to prevent independent attacks on northern Israel. Which means that Israel will have to face more sporadic attacks.
The study added that Hezbollah may agree to establish indirect lines of communication with Israel to prevent a widespread conflict, and is likely to be open to finding a way to renegotiate the rules of engagement with Israel to prevent another war, but this dynamic will be unstable, and subject to additional pressures every time. A time when the Palestinians attack northern Israel.
According to Stratfor, Israel’s post-conflict plans in Gaza include military reoccupation of most of the Strip in 2024, which will constitute a source of inconvenience for Hezbollah, which presents itself as a defender of Palestinian interests.