The revised nuclear doctrine appears to significantly lower the threshold for possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced a review of Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, saying that a conventional attack by a non-nuclear nation with the support of a nuclear power would be considered a joint attack on his country.
The threat, discussed at a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for potential use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
Mr Putin did not specify whether the amended document envisaged a nuclear response to such an attack, but he stressed that Russia could use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack that poses a “critical threat to our sovereignty”a vague formulation that leaves a lot of room for interpretation.
Russia is making slow but steady progress in Ukraine as the conflict enters its third year, and the Kremlin is seeking to discourage the West from increasing its support for kyiv.
As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues his efforts to secure Western permission to use long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia, Mr Putin’s warning indicates that such action would mean that “Russia and NATO are at war”. “The conditions for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons are clearly spelled out in the revisions”he added.
The current doctrine states that Moscow could use its nuclear arsenal “in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.”
Russian hawks have been calling for a tougher doctrine for months, criticizing the current version as too vague and weak. They say it has failed to dissuade the West from increasing aid to Ukraine and has given the impression that Moscow would never resort to nuclear weapons.
The wording of the new doctrine appears to significantly broaden the triggers for possible use of nuclear weapons, compared to the current version of the document, which states that Russia could use its atomic arsenal if it receives “reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles targeting the territory of Russia or its allies”Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russian territory with missiles and drones in response to Moscow’s attacks.
The new wording leaves the door open to a potential nuclear response to any air attack – a deliberate ambiguity intended to make the West more reluctant to authorize longer-range strikes.