It has been 16 months since the War of Israel against Gaza began, and the enclave resides in the ruins.
Reconstruction will be one of the greatest efforts to reconstruct modern history, with the question of which will pay so that it must still be addressed.
The Israeli army killed more than 61,700 people and injured 110,000 others, mainly women and children. Many bodies are still buried in up to 50 million tonnes of rubble.
For the moment, there is no clear plan for reconstruction. Last week, President Donald Trump comments on the United States “taking over” from Gaza and forcing the expulsion of his people, in what human rights groups said that the ethnic cleaning.
His proposal was refused by international leaders.
The true cost of reconstruction remains unknown
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has lost at least 75,000 tonnes of explosives on Gaza. More than 90% of houses and 88% of schools were damaged or destroyed, not to mention the bombing of roads, hospitals, farms and water treatment facilities.
The United Nations estimate that it will cost $ 53 billion to rebuild Gaza, and a UNDP report published last year said it could take up to at least 2040.
“UNDP estimate does not take into account all physical infrastructure. It’s just accommodation, “said Rami Allazzeh, an officer of economic affairs at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
“We will not know the true cost of reconstruction as long as an assessment in the field is not carried out. That said, we know it will cost tens of billions of dollars, “said Alazzeh. “And the process should start by cleaning the rubble.”
The release alone will cost at least $ 1.2 billion, or “just over half of Gaza GDP in 2022”, according to Alazzeh.
The withdrawal of the rubble will be complicated by unspecified ammunition, dangerous contaminants – like asbestos – and thousands of corpses.
Far from the physical infrastructure reconstructs the lives of the inhabitants of Gaza.
“War conditions have pushed unemployment 90%,” said Alazzeh. “Human capital has been seriously affected. Children have already lost 16 months of school and people did not receive adequate medical care for a year and a half. »»
During the first nine months of the conflict, the World Health Organization reported nearly a million cases of acute respiratory infections in Gaza, half a million cases of diarrhea and 100,000 cases of scabies, all in a context of high malnutrition.
With the “seriously limited” Gaza development prospects, Alazzeh said that “the rhythm of reconstruction will also depend on the possible recovery of hostilities”, in reference to the repeated destruction of Israel of the Gaza infrastructure in the past.
Funding on more than money
After the 2014 Israeli War against Gaza, international donors promised $ 5.4 billion for the reconstruction of road efforts, hospitals, housing complexes and agricultural projects.
This time, reconstruction will focus on similar areas, but the global level of destruction is higher and the situation seems more precarious.
The Palestinian development economist Raja Khalidi, told Tel Aviv Tribune that, far from the bizarre plan of Trump, “key actors like Egypt and Qatar will not put much money on the table without political process”.
For Khalidi, “the softening of the blockade and the (construction) generation will require a government in Gaza which is acceptable for donors, Palestinians and the Israelis”. However, he warned that “political consensus has been our Achilles heel for many years”.
Even if the funds were to come, said Khalidi, the ban on Israel on “double -use” building materials entering Gaza – dating from 2007 – inhibits construction. Israel blocks the importation of pipes, steel and cement, saying that they could help Hamas build underground tunnels.
While phase three of the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel stipulates the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops followed by a process of reconstruction of three to five years, Khalidi stressed that the chances of reaching this phase are very thin.
Israel has already threatened to return to the bombing of Gaza if Hamas does not publish three captives contained by Saturday.
Hamas had announced a break in the implementation on its side of the ceasefire agreement, citing the repeated violations of Israel of the ceasefire.
Middle East plan of Trump
Israel said he would not pay to resolve the damage he caused in Gaza.
“Israel has rejected the idea of compensation,” said Daniel Levy, former adviser to the Israeli government. “Unjustly, Israel also has a say about how Gaza should be managed.”
The Israeli government has said that it will not accept a management from Hamas in Gaza, while many in the international community want a revitalized Palestinian authority (PA) governs Gaza – a feeling not shared by most Palestinians in Gaza .
Until last week, analysts thought that Trump – who had long wanted Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel via the Abraham agreements – would try to forge the Israelis and the Palestinians in a regionally acceptable and fragile peace .
But after Trump’s proposal to clean ethnically Gaza, the possibility of Saudi Israeli normalization, which Riyadh conditioned on the creation of a Palestinian state, was “launched in long herbs,” said Levy.
“The position of Saudi Arabia on the creation of a Palestinian state is firm and unshakable,” said his Ministry of Foreign Affairs in response to the Plan “Riviera of the Middle East” of Trump.
“I do not remember my breath on a solution to two states,” said Levy. “Unfortunately for Gaza, reconstruction is a ghost conversation. Reconstruction is a question of politics … and finally to switch the balance far from Israeli interests. »»
“I don’t expect Trump or the international community to do it anytime soon,” he said.
For economist Khalidi, Palestinian resolution after 16 months of war offers an overview of the future.
“If money (from abroad) does not come, the inhabitants of Gaza will rebuild it themselves,” he said. “It will take much more time, but they will do it.”
