“No one wants to be on the front line,” an expert tells Euronews, highlighting the dramatic impact of the freezing weather on soldiers and civilians.
Winter has only just arrived, but it has already brought its share of difficulties to the war in Ukraine. The armies of both sides are affected and so are Ukrainian civilians.
“Think of the Ukrainian defenders in the trenches”declared to Euronews, Tyler Kustraassistant professor of politics and international relations, at the University of Nottingham.
More than a million Ukrainian and Russian troops are currently fighting in eastern Ukraine as temperatures plummet and winter begins to bite.
But this is only the beginning of their concerns.
Quoting pictures of rats “the size of a Kalashnikov assault rifle” shared on social media by troops, Tyler Kustra says Russian forces “are facing a serious rodent infestation, as mice and rats seek warmth and food by going into their trenches”.
“Given that the Ukrainians are just on the other side of the front line, I fear that Vladimir Putin is not the only vermin they will have to deal with”he adds.
In recent weeks, several messages and reports have been published on social media, reporting an invasion of rodents on the Russian front lines, a sign of increasingly unsanitary and degrading war conditions for troops on the battlefield.
AFP recently reported that mice were chewing the cables of important equipment in the Ukrainian trenches, such as heaters and internet devices, further adding to the problem.
Morale plummets in winter
Fighting during winter is not easy.
“Lying in trenches when it’s -10 or -20 degrees can cause hypothermia in soldiers”confides, to Euronews, Marina Mirona researcher in the Department of War Studies at King’s College, adding that the lack of foliage means they cannot hide in the open.
Extra fuel and appropriate clothing are required “simply to survive on the winter battlefield”she continues, which places a greater resource burden on each country’s military.
“That said, both sides know how to operate in winter. This is nothing new”she says.
However, gloomy weather can take a mental toll on troops, especially when they are away from family and friends.
“No one wants to be on the front line, so morale goes down. People want to be somewhere nice and warm, rather than outside.”confides Marina Miron.
“That’s the problem: there is a human factor in the psychological and physical limitations of winter operations,” she specifies.
Winter’s grip also poses problems for Kyiv’s strategists, making it difficult to advance on the battlefield.
“Muddy ground is bad for military advances”points out politics professor Tyler Kustra, slippery conditions making it difficult to move troops and tanks. “Frozen ground is more effective”.
In addition to these natural problems, he cites the remarks of the Ukrainian general, Valery Zaluzhny, in TheEconomistaccording to which the current technological situation means that Ukraine cannot muster forces for an attack.
“They will be spotted by Russian drones and destroyed,” underlines Tyler Kustra.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive, launched in June, could slow down due to harsh winter weather conditions, having failed to achieve the results expected by some.
However, progress is still possible.
“Even though winter operations are difficult, they are different”specifies Marina Miron to Euronews.
It evokes the Second World War, which gave rise to significant offensive actions during the winter months.
“We may not see the same type of rapid action (only in summer in Ukraine). But this does not necessarily mean that there will be no offensive operations.”says Marina Miron.
It is not certain that one party is more advantaged than the other.
“We cannot say that this favors the Ukrainians or the Russians“, assures Marina Miron. “It favors the side which is best prepared for such operations and which has implemented all the necessary measures from the start”.
“Now is not the time to judge.”.
Last year, Western countries hurriedly shipped winter clothing as freezing temperatures became one of the most feared enemies on both sides of the front line.
“‘More decisive’ factors, such as ammunition shortages or manpower issues, could hamper operations on the Ukrainian side”warns Marina Miron.
EU member states have pledged to supply one million shells to kyiv by March, but this ambitious target already seems unachievable.
Winter also affects civilians
But the soldiers are not the only ones to suffer from the cold.
“I worry about Ukrainian civilians as temperatures drop”confides Tyler Kustra.
“Last winter, Vladimir Putin attacked Ukrainian power plants in an attempt to freeze the civilian population. He may well try again this winter. The Ukrainian military will have to work to thwart his plans and keep the heat up”he adds.
Russian strikes slammed Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the depths of winter, plunging the country into darkness for long periods and depriving civilians of light and heat.
According to’Atlantic Councila US think tank, this targeted campaign destroyed approximately 61% of Ukraine’s power generation capacity and damaged more than 50% of the country’s energy sector.
Average temperatures in Ukraine range from -4.8°C to 2°C between December and March, with harsh weather conditions including snow and ice.
Dr Jade McGlynn, a war studies researcher at King’s College London, told Euronews earlier this year that Moscow was deliberately carrying out “terror bombings” on Ukraine.
“The ultimate intention is to break the will of the population so that they will at some point give in and accept Russia”she explained in June, asserting that these bombings were personally “directed” by the Russian president.
“Vladimir Putin thinks the West will give up and Ukrainians will just be grateful for the end of terror”.