Since Donald Trump announced the start of peace negotiations in the war in Ukraine, the United States has made several statements on the concessions that Ukraine should make. Russia, on the other hand, has had no details on the conditions it will face.
“Excellent interviews with Russia and Ukraine. Good possibility of putting an end to this horrible and very bloody war”, announced US President Donald Trump, commenting on Wednesday’s phone calls with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.
Negotiations to begin with the first meeting of the American delegation with the Ukrainian president at the Munich conference on security, later in the week, the parties will have to keep the first difficult discussions on the possible concessions and compromises.
But it seems that it is Ukraine, and not Russia, which is pushed to review its expectations, three years after the massive invasion of Moscow.
The situation seems rather favorable to the Kremlin, which “Enter this potential negotiation with a fairly strong hand”, said Neil Melvin, director of international security at the Royal United Services Institute.
He told Euronews that Moscow had already exposed what he considered as the negotiation position of Russia, “which is of a very high level”.
“Some of the requests that Russia will make through negotiations have already been recognized, such as the fact that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO”said the expert.
“Although there may be a certain room for maneuver on this subject, because we have discussed the question of whether Russia wanted to commit to what Ukraine never joins NATO, it could be possible to discuss the possibility of re -examining this issue in 20 years..
According to him, Russia will want to start direct negotiations with Donald Trump and not with Ukraine or the Europeans present in the room. Russia could also consider a much wider conversation.
“The report indicates that there will be a summit between President Putin and President Trump in Saudi Arabia. It is therefore possible that the conversation relates to questions relating to the Middle East, on broader international security issues, on armaments control and Ukraine “, he explains, “It is therefore possible that there is a kind of great bargain in which Russia will seek to conclude an agreement on a certain number of different areas in order to increase its influence on Ukraine.”
Revealing the details of his phone call with his Russian counterpart, Donald Trump announced that the conversation was much wider and focused on “Ukraine, the Middle East, energy, artificial intelligence, the power of the dollar and various other subjects.”
The official Kremlin report on this call says that Vladimir Putin underlined the need for“Eliminate deep causes” of war and that he has “agreed“With American president Donald Trump that“Long -term regulations could be obtained through peaceful negotiations”.
Russian authorities explicitly defined the “Deep Causes” of war as the violation presumed by NATO of its commitments not to advance east towards the Russian border.
But what Moscow has not defined is his vision of peace.
Does Russia want peace?
Andrew Novo, of the CEPA Defense and Security Program, told Euronews that Vladimir Putin wanted “Put an end to war, at least to the most important phase of war”.
But he pointed out that a cease-fire would not necessarily end the war and that the question is now to know what this peace would look like.
ADVERTISEMENT“The West wants peace. Ukraine wants peace. Putin wants peace. The Russian people want peace. But their ideas about what a peace looks like are very, very, very different”, said the expert.
While the American president wishes “put an end to war “the EU claims that “It is not only the fate of Ukraine that is at stake, but that of Europe”.
Kyiv has repeatedly declared that he wanted a lasting, reliable and just peace for this country torn apart by the war.
What does Moscow want? According to Neil Melvin, Peace is not the primary objective of Russia.
ADVERTISEMENTHe explains that It was Putin who sparked this war. “He has a particular historical vision of Russia, which is that of great Russia, the pressure of the pre-revolutionary period, the pre-Soviet period, a semblance of the new Russian empire, and in this vision Many lands of contemporary Ukraine are considered as central Russian lands because they have been seized by various Russian tsars. United States in Europe “.
These objectives will be at the heart of the negotiation strategy of Russia and not of peace. And Even if Ukraine is pushed to make territorial concessions, this will not be enough in Moscowaccording to Neil Melvin, who adds that a regulation does not only concern the loss of territories, but also “Ukraine’s subjugation more generally”.
“It is very clear that the Russians will also put pressure for a political settlement in Ukraine which is favorable to them, and that they will certainly want President Zelensky to be replaced”he said “They will want some more conciliatory someone to direct Ukraine and push for the federalization of Ukraine, that Russian becomes the second official language, that Russian schools and culture are institutionalized, that Ukraine may adopt Be a neutral status or certainly an unlined international status, that Ukraine disarms and that the current level of the armed forces is reduced, and that there is no foreign military presence on the part of the Atlantic community, except As part of a UN peacekeeping mandate “.
Few concessions for the Kremlin
In the end, it will be a regulation in which Moscow will try to obtain maximalist gains and will make few concessions.
ADVERTISEMENTIn addition, she will try to do so based on the vision of the Kremlin according to which the “Great powers decide questions of war and peace according to their interests”.
This is why Neil Melvin says that Vladimir Putin wants to speak to Donald Trump and not to European leaders or the European Union. For Moscow, the first direct interview between the American and Russian presidents is a recognition of the fact that“They want to talk to power behind the scenes, which they consider to be us, and not to Europeans” – Not to mention Kyiv and the Ukrainian President, which Vladimir Putin rejects as “non-legimate”.
Thursday, Volodymyr Zelensky repeated once again than “We will not accept any bilateral negotiations on Ukraine without us”, Insisting on Kyiv’s long -term strategy, “Nothing on Ukraine on Ukraine”.
The first meeting between the American administration and Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich on security conference is scheduled for the end of the week and will not include any Russian representative.
ADVERTISEMENTThe Ukrainians certainly hope to obtain not only more clarity, but also the assurance that Washington is always determined to support Ukraine in what seems to be a critical moment for the total invasion of Ukraine by Russia at the approach of its three years of existence.
