A French analyst said kyiv’s recent advances on the battlefield against Russia were “quite symbolic.”
After months of unsuccessful counter-offensive, Ukraine’s recent successes do not yet represent a real breakthrough in its war against Russia, military experts told AFP.
On Sunday, kyiv announced that its troops had reached the left bank of the Dnieper River, occupied by the Russian army.
She claimed to have pushed back Moscow’s forces from “3 to 8 km” on the front line in the southern Kherson region, without specifying whether Ukrainian troops were in full control of the area.
If confirmed, it would be the biggest advance by the Ukrainian army against Russia since the recapture of Robotyne, in the Zaporizhia region, in August, following the launch of the counter-offensive in June .
Vladimir Saldo, the head of the Russian-occupied Kherson region, admitted that “about a company and a half” of Ukrainian soldiers – potentially hundreds of men – had established positions near the village of Krynky, across the Dnieper, although he downplayed their significance.
According to pro-Kremlin military expert Alexander Khramchikhin, the reconquered territory is “microscopic” and does not allow Ukrainian forces to deploy military equipment.
“Without equipment, no offensive, only losses“, he summarizes.
However, Moscow replaced the commander of the Russian military group “Dnepr” operating in the region at the end of October due to the difficult situation on the ground, according to analysts.
The French military expert, Michel Goya, told AFP that the Ukrainian operation was “quite limited, quite symbolic“, but that she “scored small victories after the failure of the main offensive“.
kyiv needs heavy equipment – and bridges
To turn its success into a major breakthrough, the Ukrainian army must succeed in deploying its army across the river. This would involve crossing a large natural barrier and then maneuvering through a swampy area, during the rainy season.
kyiv’s first objective is to “cut off Russian supply lines. To do this, they are constantly expanding their beachhead, they are not just in Krynky, they are moving“, explains the Russian journalist, Michael Nacke. He emphasizes that Russia “does not have the most professional units in this region“.
The Ukrainian operation “maintains pressure on the Russians, who are forced to move part of their reserves towards the Dnieper, to the detriment of other sectors of the front“, adds Michel Goya.
Shifting the offensive south could also allow Kiev to launch a larger assault on the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia, in 2014. But to achieve this, experts estimate, Ukraine will need to deploy thousands additional men and vehicles.
“Bridges across the Dnieper are necessary (for such military movement), but any pontoon would be vulnerable to Russia’s air and ground firepower, which has not been completely eliminated“, specifies Mykola Bielieskov, a Ukrainian military analyst.
He also highlights the risk linked to Russian drones, which would be difficult to counter.
Only bridges allow “the passage of heavy equipment and logistics. If we want to advance several tens of kilometers in depth, we must also advance our artillery, otherwise we find ourselves cut off from all support.“, explains Michel Goya.
“The Ukrainians who crossed are infantrymen and marine commandos. They have a few vehicles but overall remain very light. They are mainly protected by their artillery which remains on the other side of the river,” he adds.
Several military sources note that Krynky is considered “secondary” by the Russians who concentrate their military forces on Avdivka, an industrial town to the east, which Moscow’s army is trying to encircle.