The election of Pedro Nuno Santos at the head of the Socialist Party seems to have had an effect on voting intentions for the early legislative elections in March in Portugal.
Compared to the survey of the first half of Decemberthe PS has progressed and the PSD has retreated, leaving the latter with a lead of less than one point over its socialist rivals, according to the second exclusive poll carried out by Consulmark2 for Euronews and Nascer do Sol.
If the elections took place today, the PSD would win with 20.5 % of votes (22.4% in the previous survey), followed by the PS with 19.8% (19.5%).
Chega remains the third political force, but loses more than a percentage point compared to the previous poll, going from 12.9% to 11.3%. THE Left blockon the other hand, is up sharply, going from 3.3% to 5.7%.
L’Liberal initiative follows with 4.4% (5%), the CDU with 2.1% (1.6%) and the Free (Book)which maintains its voting intentions at 1.7%.
THE CDS-PP drops to 1.2% (1.7%) and the PAN is also in decline, going from 1% to 0.6%, which could mean it will not sit in the Assembly of the Republic during the next elections .
7.1% of those questioned intend to vote blank or invalid (5%) and 4% intend to abstain (2.1). 10.8% do not know who to vote for (13.4%) and 10.5% refuse to answer (9.7%).
An arithmetic distribution of the “don’t know/don’t answer” responses between the different parties shows that the PSD and the PS are separated by exactly one percentage point, the first with 27.5% (30% in the previous survey) and the second with 26.5% (26%).
Chega would obtain 15.2% (17.2%), the Left Bloc 7.7% (4.4%) and the Liberal Initiative 5.8% (6.7%).
The majority does not want a PSD/Chega alliance
As far as possible alliances are concerned, the right seems to have an advantage and could even get closer to the absolute majority in the event of an agreement between the PSD, the CDS-PP and the Liberal Initiative, taking the arithmetic NS/NR distribution.
The majority of respondents (45.8%) think that the PSD should go it alone during these elections and 37.5% think that he should seek pre-election alliances. As for the possibility of a post-election agreement with Chega, if it proves necessary to make a PSD government viable, a majority of 58.3% rejects this possibility, while 32.6% support it. Nearly half of those questioned (49.8%) think that the PS should make a minority PSD government viable, in order to prevent a possible alliance between the Social Democrats and Chega.
A new “geringonça” excluded
In the event that the PS wins the elections with a relative majority, the majority (46.6%) of those questioned think that the socialists should try to govern alonewhile around 40% advocate a new alliance between the PS, the Left Bloc and the CDU. More than half (54.4%) think that the PSD should make a PS minority government viable.
The scenario of a victory with a relative majority for the PS is the most likely outcome of these elections, according to about half of those surveyed. 26.3% believe in a relative majority for the PSD, while only 5.5% think there will be an absolute majority for the PS and 3.3% for the PSD.
Regarding the election of new socialist leaderthe vast majority of those questioned (64.4%) declared that they were not “no surprises at all” by the appointment of Pedro Nuno Santos as head of the party. This change influenced the vote of 27.5% of respondents, while 68.1% said it had no influence on their choice. 90.3% of voters say they will vote in these elections, with just under three-fifths (56%) having already chosen their candidate. The number of undecideds fell from 45.6% to 43.2%.
Finally, the state of the National Health System (SNS) constitutes the most serious problem facing Portugal, for 55.9% of those questioned. Then comes the accommodation (36.4%) and the Cost of life (31.6%).
The study was carried out by Consulmark2 for Euronews and Nascer do Sol between December 17 and 20, 2023, with a sample of 803 people, distributed in terms of sex, age and region based on the census of 2021. The response rate was 51.2% and the maximum sampling error, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%.