Occupied Jerusalem- The speech of War Council member Minister Benny Gantz carried within it his political and security views, as he called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to develop a strategic plan for the conduct of the war and the next day by the eighth of next June, to achieve the goals of: the return of detainees and politically undermining the rule of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas). Militaryly, by demilitarizing the Gaza Strip and identifying an alternative to ruling the Strip.
In the strategic plan, Gantz also stipulated that the residents of the north and the Israeli border towns with Lebanon be returned to their homes until the start of school on the first of next September, the promotion of normalization, and the adoption of a blueprint for the conscription and civil service project.
According to estimates by political analysts, Gantz’s statements and demands can be lived with by Netanyahu if he is concerned with the continuation of the emergency government, and they agree that the proposed strategic plan does not pose a threat to the collapse of Netanyahu’s original government coalition, which relies on 64 members of the Knesset out of 120.
Analyzes suggest that the divergence of positions between the Israeli political parties and forces – regarding the priorities of the war and the course of the fighting – will not undermine the coalition. While there is consensus – on the other hand – that the Haredi conscription law and the failure of the Netanyahu government to reach understandings that guarantee the exemption of Jewish religious school students from conscription into the army, the aforementioned will lead to the dismantling of the government and going to early elections.
Gantz’s statements reflect his inability to overthrow the Netanyahu government, and they also reflect an Israeli consensus to rule out any political solution to the issue of Palestine and Gaza exclusively, as Gantz did not put forward any serious initiative towards settling the conflict with the Palestinians within a clear political project, according to political analysts.
Violation of “Israel’s sanctities”
In reading the meanings and connotations of the content of Gantz’s statements, the political affairs analyst at Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Moran Azoulay, estimated that they aim to bring about changes in Netanyahu’s policy regarding everything related to the conduct of the war.
Azoulay pointed out that – in contrast to previous statements – Gantz seemed strict and more assertive, mainly due to a strong conviction that Netanyahu’s political considerations behind the continuation of the war violated the “sanctities” of Israel.
She explained that the truth of the content of Gantz’s statements that he will resign from the emergency government very soon – if the government’s policy regarding the conduct of the war, the next day, and the management of Gaza in the future does not change – is surprising in itself. But “there is still a real threat looming over the stability of Netanyahu’s government, which is the conscription law.”
With the exception of Article 6, which deals with the conscription law, Azoulay says, “There is nothing in the statements and conditions set by Gantz that Netanyahu cannot live with. The prime minister will have no problem declaring, at least to the press, that he is interested in achieving the six goals, and this may be welcomed.” Among the majority of coalition members.
The political affairs analyst believes that formulating a plan that meets Gantz’s demands – in one way or another – is not very complicated.
“It is certain that there will be obstacles in the way, but it can be estimated that if Gantz’s presence in the government is still important to Netanyahu, he will know how to find a way to meet the demands, but the conscription law remains the only obstacle,” Azoulay added.
Statements and maneuvers
The correspondent for party and parliamentary affairs at the Israeli Channel 11, Yaara Shapira, offers the same reading, but she believes that Gantz’s statements show his intentions for the near future, which will affect the entire Israeli political system, and she stressed that “Netanyahu does not have the ability to agree fully and within 3 weeks.” “On the conditions presented by Gantz for his stay in the government.”
According to Shapira, Gantz’s threat to resign from the government comes “just before the summer session of the Knesset, which will begin next week and end at the end of next July, which is very short, and after that the Knesset will go into recess again during which it is not possible to easily vote on dissolving the Knesset or forming a new government.” “.
The party affairs correspondent added that Gantz’s resignation will not lead to the dissolution of the government and the holding of elections, as Netanyahu still has 64 deputies. Therefore, when Gantz stated that if his conditions were not accepted, he would seek to form a government on the basis of broad unity, he meant that he would try to achieve this in the current Knesset, and that is why Gantz needs time for political maneuvers during the summer session.
In this regard, Shapira believes that Gantz’s threats to resign from the government are an attempt by him to open new negotiations with Netanyahu to achieve political gains related to the war, most notably the return of “detainees.” It is also a message to Israeli public opinion that he was forced to resign from the emergency government after he had exhausted all possibilities, and thus He needs an excuse to justify his withdrawal from the war government so that his popularity does not decline.
Pressures and scenarios
For his part, the political affairs correspondent for Haaretz newspaper, Yehonatan Liss, believes that the content of Gantz’s statements amounts to him coming down from the tree, and aims to give him an excuse for a gradual withdrawal from the emergency government, pointing out that the estimates of the political officials on the party map agree among themselves that the chances of Netanyahu agreeing to the conditions that Gantz set it low.
Despite this, the political affairs correspondent believes that Gantz hopes that his conditions, along with Defense Minister Yoav Galant’s statements rejecting the formation of military rule in the Gaza Strip, will be a pressure card on Netanyahu to formulate a political plan regarding the day after the war, and refrain from resigning from the emergency government.
According to the political affairs correspondent, Gantz prefers the scenario of not withdrawing from the emergency government, because he currently does not have the ability to lead a step that leads to dissolving the Knesset and holding early parliamentary elections.
Regarding Gantz’s deadline, the political affairs correspondent says, “The deadline comes as he is working in coordination with Galant to promote the scheme for the Haredi recruitment bill, as leaving the government early would harm the possibility of moving forward with this step.”