With the large human losses that the occupation deliberately intends as part of its aggression against Gaza, then expanding that to Lebanon, in addition to the great destruction in both of them, discussions resurface about the feasibility of resistance in its current form, and some go beyond that to assert the outcome of the battle and its consequences in an implicit call for surrender, which is denied by history. Reality and analysis.
The battle continues
There are two methodological fallacies in the aforementioned proposal:
The first one Human losses, despite their importance, are not the only nor the main criterion for evaluating the results of any war. This is true in traditional wars between countries, but how about the confrontation between the occupation and resistance movements that are already governed by an imbalance of power?
If losses were the deciding factor, then no resistance would have won, no occupation would have withdrawn in history, and there would be no logic or feasibility for any resistance.
And the second It is an attempt to evaluate the results of the war and its repercussions before it ends, and it is even open to several scenarios.
Despite nearly fourteen months of continuous aggression and successive massacres in Gaza, then Lebanon, the resistance – besieged with weak capabilities to begin with – is still present, strong and effective, and the occupation suffers relatively large losses despite the strikes and losses it has been subjected to on both the human and armament levels. Indeed, in the Jabalia region, during a campaign of siege, starvation, and destruction, it besieged nearly 30 soldiers of various ranks, despite the fact that he was besieging and attacking it for the third time.
History tells us clearly that it is impossible to eliminate resistance to the occupation as an idea, and almost impossible to eliminate it as a body, framework, and title, especially the current form of resistance in Palestine and Lebanon, that is, that emanating from the heart of the people and gaining their trust and embrace.
The enemy, intentionally and deliberately, missed opportunities that had previously arisen to stop the war and claim victory in it, such as the assassination of the heads of the Hamas political bureau, Haniyeh and then Sinwar, or the assassination of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and it seems that it is headed for a long-term war, and perhaps a new occupation of all… From Gaza and southern Lebanon, which opens the scene to a scenario of long attrition, and makes any talk about final or inevitable results of the war a form of uncontrolled speculation using scientific analysis methodologies.
Gains and losses
The failure of this assessment in terms of logic is evident in its unilateral view of the war from two angles: a unilateral view of the resistance’s losses without considering the gains it has achieved so far, in the long term, and a unilateral view of its losses – and behind it the Palestinians and Lebanese – without the losses of its enemy.
In the first place, the resistance suffered great losses in terms of leaders, fighters, and capabilities, and the occupation was able to advance and position itself in most areas of Gaza and certain areas in southern Lebanon. Tens of thousands of martyrs rose, and more than twice as many were injured, in addition to the comprehensive destruction of buildings, infrastructure, and all facilities. Vitality.
All of this is true and important in the equation, and it is gross and difficult for the soul, but it is not the entire scene and therefore cannot be evaluated on its basis alone.
In contrast, Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” achieved strategic gains on its first day, which were strengthened by the continuation of resistance to this day, and the battle expanded to include Lebanon. These strategic gains, of which the intended war of annihilation and mass destruction did not change much, directly and deeply affect the foundations on which the occupying state was founded, and thus its future.
Today, “Israel” is no longer the home of prosperity that was promised to the Jews of the world, as they left it from the beginning of the war until August/ Last August According to the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, about one million people, which is a huge number relative to the population.
An opinion poll also showed that 40% Of the “Israelis” are considering reverse immigration, and that 59% Of them, they considered going to embassies to submit an application or inquire about obtaining foreign citizenship, and 78% Of families supported the idea of their children traveling abroad.
An important part of the reasons for this trend is the feeling of loss of security, and the decline in confidence in the “Israeli” military and security establishment, which demonstrated the inadequacy and failure of the flood operation in anticipating it, and then in protecting those inside it, both society and soldiers.
Perhaps one of the most important motives for the ongoing massacres, sometimes incomprehensible as a strategic feasibility, is the attempt to restore confidence in the rate of blood shed, as well as revenge for this strategic effect.
The “Israeli” theory of deterrence has eroded, and the effects of this are still interacting with the continued targeting of the occupying state from Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq and rounds of mutual targeting with Iran, as well as the steadfastness of the resistance in the ground battles in both Gaza and Lebanon.
One of the long-term gains that should not be underestimated is the occupation’s loss in the battle of narrative and image, as the “Israeli” narrative is no longer the only one existing in the West. Rather, it is challenged today by the real Palestinian narrative about genocide, forced displacement, and ethnic cleansing (which occurred in 1948 and was repeated in this war). Western tongues, not just Palestinian.
In an opinion poll conducted among American Jews and published by Yedioth Ahronoth, 42 criticized% Including the occupying state, 37 supported it% Among their teenagers is Hamas (not just Palestine), a percentage that has risen to 60% When calculating the age of 14, these are numbers that clearly indicate the changing mental image of her globally.
Also among the occupation’s great losses is the preliminary decision of the International Court of Justice that what the occupation is doing in Gaza may amount to genocide, and the continuation of the trial on this basis, and then the decision of the International Criminal Court with arrest warrants for both Netanyahu and Gallant, so that this supports the Palestinian right in principle and is considered… On a realistic, practical level, persecution and insults will haunt Israel as a state and its leaders for many years to come, threatening the foundations on which it was founded, the most important of which is oppression. And the exclusivity of extermination.
Occupation losses
In all of its previous wars and confrontations with the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance, Israel has always concealed and minimized its real losses during the war, then announced them after its end, sometimes after many years.
Despite this, the losses that the occupation has announced so far in this war represent a large number considering the number of population, then the number of army personnel, and then its ability to bear losses, even though they have increased significantly in this war.
Official Israeli circles are talking about nearly 2,000 dead, including 794 soldiers, since October 7, 2023, 370 of them in ground confrontations in Gaza alone, and 5,346 soldiers injured, the overwhelming majority of them in Gaza as well.
While some reports indicate that hospital emergency departments receive approximately 12,000 soldiers, occupation army sources confirm that there is a shortage estimated at 7,500 soldiers, in addition to public expressions of fatigue, rebellion, and refusal to return to military service.
These losses are likely to rise permanently and sometimes rapidly, in light of the continuation of ground operations in Gaza and southern Lebanon, and the clear valor in the performance of the two resistance groups, confirm that looking at their losses without considering the occupation’s declared and real losses, as well as those expected in the future, is a one-sided view that does not lead to objective results or build a foundation. It has a proper evaluation.
In conclusion, the current war represents a break in many of the concepts related to the wars of the occupying state, such as the inability to bear long wars, large losses, and a high number of prisoners, but it is a war that will stop one day until most or all of its aspects are revealed, and its implications become clear in the short and long term, and will become clear at that time. The most strategic repercussions are on the occupying state, despite the heavy price that our people paid in both Palestine and then Lebanon.
The continuation of the occupation’s plans regarding both Gaza and Lebanon indicates a continuing state of exhaustion, and that a decision by breaking the resistance and thus the victory of the occupation is unlikely, which leaves steadfastness and exhausting the occupation the best and least harmful option, compared to surrender and unleashing its full hand against Palestine and Lebanon (and perhaps the region). Land, people, resistance and future.
Therefore, the most pessimistic people today may one day reach the conviction that the Al-Aqsa flood was actually one of the stations of liberation, and perhaps the first real station on the path to ending the occupation.
The opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Tel Aviv Tribune Network.