The use of the nuclear threat in the ongoing conflict between Russia and the Western camp is escalating dramatically against the backdrop of the repercussions caused by the war in Ukraine on Russia’s international standing, and on its economic, military and security conditions, which prompts it to highlight the card of nuclear power it possesses, to assure the West that it will not accept any situation. To emerge defeated from this confrontation.
Moscow has expressed its willingness to change its military doctrine to ease restrictions on the use of nuclear weapons, and its official statements threatening to actually use them have increased.
It also conducted exercises simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons, and increased the readiness of its weapons, in parallel with expanding the scope of military action to reach Cuba near the eastern shore of the United States.
Stockholm Institute report
The annual report issued by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute warned of the increasing spread of nuclear weapons globally this year, which raises concerns and questions about the fate of this escalation and its repercussions on international stability and security.
The report issued on June 17, 2024 indicated that the six-decade-long nuclear arms control project was at risk of termination, as the pace of its implementation by the two main parties in it, the United States and Russia, had slowed.
The two countries possess approximately 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons, while both parties reduce transparency regarding their nuclear power, with estimates that Russia has deployed about 36 additional nuclear warheads, compared to what the situation was in January 2023, with unconfirmed news regarding Moscow’s deployment. Nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory.
“While the world’s total nuclear warheads continue to decline with the gradual dismantling of Cold War-era weapons, we unfortunately continue to see annual increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads, and this trend appears likely to continue and perhaps accelerate in the years ahead,” said Institute Director Dan Smith. “It is very worrying.”
Nuclear arms control and disarmament diplomacy suffered major setbacks in 2023, according to the report; In February 2023, Russia announced that it would suspend its participation in the START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty. In return, the United States also suspended the exchange and publication of data that the treaty required it to publish.
In November 2023, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, due to the “imbalance” with the United States, which has abstained from ratifying the treaty since it was opened for signature in 1996.
Wilfred Wan, director of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Program at the Stockholm Institute, comments: “We have not seen nuclear weapons play such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War, and it is difficult to believe that it has only been two years since the leaders of the five major nuclear-armed countries affirmed that nuclear war is not… “It can be won and must never be fought.”
Power review
In a rare show of force, a Russian nuclear-powered submarine and a group of accompanying warships arrived in Havana Bay, Cuba, on June 12, 2024, becoming less than 100 miles from the eastern shore of the United States, to which Washington responded by sending a submarine. Nuclear to Guantanamo Bay.
Although Cuba confirmed that the two submarines were not armed with nuclear weapons, and that the visit of the Russian fleet was for 5 days, the event brought to mind the atmosphere of the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the Western camp, which had reached its peak when the Soviet Union deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1962. Which put the world on the brink of nuclear war.
In a related context, Russia had carried out exercises on the use of tactical nuclear weapons near the Ukrainian border on May 21, 2024. The explosive capacity of these bombs is 360 kilotons, equivalent to 30 times the capacity of the bomb that was dropped on the Japanese city of Hiroshima.
Moscow followed this with similar exercises on June 12, 2024, near the borders of NATO member states Norway, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
The exercises came after statements from Western officials indicating that they would allow Ukraine to launch attacks deep into Russian territory using Western weapons.
Mutual threats
These exercises were preceded by threats by Russian President Vladimir Putin to deploy “conventional missiles” within close range of the United States and its European allies if they allowed Ukraine to launch strikes deep inside Russia with long-range Western weapons.
Putin said, “The West is wrong if it assumes that Russia will never use nuclear weapons,” warning that “the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine should not be underestimated.”
When asked about NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s statements in which he called for allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike Russian territory, Putin warned that allowing Kiev to strike Russia with more powerful weapons is a dangerous escalation that drags the West toward war with Russia.
In response to a question about the risk of nuclear war, Putin said that Russian nuclear doctrine allows the use of such weapons.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine published in 2020 sets out the conditions under which the Russian president would consider using a nuclear weapon, essentially in response to an attack with nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction or to the use of conventional weapons against Russia “when the very existence of the state becomes threatened.” “.
International standing
This Russian discourse and behavior highlights the view of nuclear weapons as one of the pillars of international standing – which it is striving to restore – which is what was indicated in the Russian Federation’s foreign policy document issued by the Kremlin on March 31, 2023.
The document stipulated that Russia’s position in the world is determined by its significant resources in all areas of life, its status as a permanent member of the Security Council, participation in leading intergovernmental organizations and assemblies, and its being one of the two largest nuclear powers.
The document also mentioned other determinants, related to Russia’s contribution to victory in World War II and its active role in shaping the contemporary system of international relations and eliminating the global system of colonialism, which “makes it one of the sovereign centers of global development that performs a historically unique mission aimed at preserving the global balance of power and building a system.” Multipolar international.
Working to change the shape of the international system has been the focus of Russian foreign policy since Putin’s rise to the top of the pyramid of power in the year 2000.
the edge of the abyss
On the other side, NATO has been increasing its nuclear preparations since the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. At the extraordinary summit held on March 24, 2022, NATO Heads of State and Government affirmed that NATO “will significantly strengthen its long-term deterrence and defense posture and develop the full range of forces and capabilities necessary to maintain the credibility of deterrence and defense.”
The leaders also committed to enhancing preparedness to confront chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats.
At the Vilnius summit of NATO heads of state – held on July 12, 2023 – the “Allies” reaffirmed that NATO will take all necessary steps to ensure the credibility, effectiveness, safety and security of the nuclear deterrence mission.
This includes continuing to modernize the Alliance’s nuclear capability and modernizing planning to increase the flexibility and adaptability of the Alliance’s nuclear forces, while exercising strong political control at all times.
This alert depicts an unprecedented scene of nuclear tension in decades, which is what Dan Smith, Director of the Stockholm International Peace Institute, warned against, saying in the institute’s annual report: “We are now in one of the most dangerous periods in human history, as there are many sources of instability, such as political rivalries, Economic inequality, environmental disruption, and an accelerating arms race. The abyss is looming, and it is time for the great powers to step back.”
