Russia is increasing its offensives all along the front line and seems on the verge of breaking through in several places. If the Ukrainian difficulties are real at the start of winter, the Russian army also has limited resources.
At Avdiïvka, the Russians advance. The same in the Zaporizhia region. However, Ukraine had concentrated its efforts there to carry out its counter-offensive. And on the other side of the Dnieper, the prospects of the Ukrainian soldiers who managed to cross the river “seem slim”, assured CNN, Sunday December 17.
The American channel is not the only one to paint a black picture for Ukraine. “We have a significant shortage of ammunition and we have been forced to go on the defensive in certain regions,” admitted Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, interviewed by the Reuters news agency on Monday December 18.
Strength in numbers
Among the highest ranking officers of the Ukrainian army, the mood is not celebratory. Already at the beginning of November, Valeriy Zalouzhny, the chief of staff, assured in an interview with The Economist that the war against Russia was “at an impasse”. A statement which was contested by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who however subsequently recognized that the success of military operations also depended greatly on Western logistical support. Support is losing momentum, whether in Washington or Brussels, underlines the New York Times.
On the ground, “it is currently very difficult because Russia is sending one wave of soldiers after another to overwhelm the Ukrainian forces,” summarizes Glen Grant, senior analyst at the Baltic Security Foundation and specialist in Russian military issues.
Consequence: “The Ukrainians have great difficulty holding Avdiïvka, an important town because it is on the outskirts of Donetsk. They will probably lose Mariïnka, which is a little further south. They are undergoing a major offensive in the vicinity of the town of Robotyne, which constitutes one of the main areas recaptured by the Ukrainians in the Zaporizhzhia region since the start of the counter-offensive,” explains Huseyn Aliyev, war specialist in Ukraine at the University of Glasgow, Scotland.
And that’s without counting the violent fighting which continues for control of Bakhmout and the Russian offensives launched even further north of the front line, towards Koupiansk, in the Luhansk region.
Of course, we must “be careful of Russian disinformation which seeks to darken the picture even more for Ukraine,” warns Glen Grant. Indeed, pro-Kremlin propagandists are currently increasing the number of triumphalist messages on Telegram, and even creating fake accounts of Ukrainian soldiers who “complain” about the difficulties of fighting against an enemy presented as much stronger.
Even the statements of the Ukrainian authorities must be taken with caution. They may be tempted to force the point “in order to convince the West of the importance of continuing to provide them with logistical support,” underlines Sim Tack, a military analyst for Force Analysis, a conflict monitoring company.
Beyond the exaggerations of some, “the general dynamic of the fighting is certainly on the side of the Russians at the moment,” assures Huseyn Aliyev.
Waiting for the West
But to what extent? The battle for Avdiïvka clearly illustrates the differences in interpretation. For some, the Russian advance represents a serious setback for kyiv. “It was a valuable outpost for Ukrainian artillery to bombard Donetsk and put Russian defenses under constant pressure,” explains Huseyn Aliyev. If Ukrainian forces are forced to withdraw, this will free up Russian troops who can be redeployed elsewhere on the front.
For others, the price in men and materials that the Russians are paying to break through to Avdiïvka is very – even too – high. “According to American estimates, Russia has already lost the equivalent of an entire division, that is to say around 10,000 men and their equipment,” notes Sim Tack. “What is more important: retreating a little or inflicting very heavy losses on the enemy?” asks Glen Grant.
If the analysis of the extent of Ukrainian difficulties may vary, everyone agrees on the reasons. First of all, there is “the crucial question of sending equipment and ammunition to Ukraine by Western countries”, underlines Sim Tack. The slowness of the Europeans in finalizing the agreement on aid of 51 billion euros to Ukraine despite Hungary’s veto and the political blockage in the United States complicates the task of the Ukrainian general staff.
However, he does not find himself destitute overnight. “There is always material arriving, particularly because of previous commitments, but the future is much more uncertain,” explains Sim Tack. Ukrainian military leaders find themselves having to make choices without really knowing what tomorrow will bring, which pushes them to ration ammunition.
Whereas on the other hand, this is not the case. “Russia is currently succeeding in supporting its war effort very adequately,” notes Huseyn Aliyev. On the one hand, it was able to increase its production of artillery ammunition, and on the other “it was able to buy drones and munitions in large quantities from countries like Iran or North Korea ‘, summarizes this expert.
Please “Tsar Putin” before the presidential election
It’s not just ammunition that kyiv is lacking. “Ukraine also has a serious shortage of personnel. The army is finding it increasingly difficult to rotate its troops to allow them to rest,” underlines Sim Tack. This problem of reserves is partly due to “a bill providing for facilitating the mobilization of young people who are currently having difficulty passing through Parliament”, underlines Glen Grant.
Another reason for the increase in Russian offensives is… the presidential election supposed to allow Vladimir Putin to win a new mandate next March. “All the petty generals currently want to please the Tsar by giving him reasons to boast about the ‘successes’ of his war during the election campaign,” says Glen Grant.
For the experts interviewed by France 24, the Russian army could thus achieve a breakthrough on the front. And so what ? “It does not have enough armored vehicles and experienced troops to push its advantage very far,” Glen Grant wants to believe. A conviction shared by Huseyn Aliyev: “Moscow has too limited resources to support an offensive prolonged beyond a month or two”. The Russian advantage would thus resemble the Potemkin villages: impressive, but only on the surface. Especially if the floodgates of Western aid open wide again for kyiv.