The assassination of senior Hamas officials in what is believed to be an Israeli attack in Beirut on Tuesday has reverberated across the Middle East. Even though hundreds of people have been killed every day for nearly three months, the latest targeted killing has sent shockwaves, reopened old wounds and raised fears of an escalation of conflict.
Among the victims of this surgical strike were senior Hamas leaders. The most prominent was Saleh al-Arouri, former leader of the Qassam Brigades and a member of the Hamas politburo who coordinated the group’s military and political activities outside the Gaza Strip, marshaling political and financial support. Originally from the West Bank, al-Arouri was reportedly one of the most popular Hamas leaders in the Fatah-ruled areas of Palestine, and his reputation may have grown after October 7.
High-ranking military commanders Samir Findi and Azzam al-Aqraa were also killed, along with four other members.
The assassination bore all the hallmarks of long-range targeted Israeli eliminations of high-value human targets. Al-Arouri and his companions were killed in a strike that targeted a second-floor apartment on the street, flanked on both sides by eight-story buildings. The action bears striking similarities to the assassination of Ahmad Yassin, one of the founders of Hamas and the group’s spiritual leader, who was eliminated on a Gaza street by a modified anti-tank guided missile.
Times and technology change, as do Israeli capabilities. To kill Sheikh Yassin in 2004, an Apache AH-64 armored anti-tank helicopter had to come within 2 km (1.2 miles). The same task is now accomplished by quieter, smaller, harder-to-hear-and-see unmanned drones, as well as a new generation of missiles. The combination used in Beirut, undetected, appears to have been an Israeli-built system – a Hermes drone and a Nimrod missile.
The attack also brought back unpleasant memories of previous incursions and military actions in Beirut that Israel had carried out with impunity. One of the most notorious clandestine killings occurred 50 years ago, in April 1973, when an Israeli commando landed on the beach in Beirut and killed three senior Palestinian leaders. The Israeli team included future Prime Minister Ehud Barak, dressed in the dress and makeup of a young blonde woman. Along with Tuesday’s assassination, the main target was the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) military leader for the West Bank, Kamal Adwan.
Israel has reaped the benefits of the Youth Spring for years, as it polarized Lebanon so deeply that it led to the resignation of Prime Minister Saeb Salam, followed by armed clashes between pro-Palestinian factions. and their opponents and a general collapse of the political landscape. and the security situation. In two years of growing distrust, broken promises, false allegiances and infighting, Lebanon descended into a bloody and exhaustive civil war that would not end until 1990. Israel used infighting to achieve its goals. , fueling war, arming proxies, and encouraging and complicit. massacres like those of Sabra and Chatila in 1982.
Past examples are terrifying, but history does not always have to repeat itself, especially for those who learn from the past.
The first questions an analyst asks are: why him, why now and what will happen next.
“Why him” is sort of a moot question, but it still needs to be asked. In principle, Israel wants to eliminate as many senior Hamas officials as possible after October 7, probably with even greater determination. Al-Arouri was a very senior Hamas official, influential and competent, different from the rest of the senior leaders by his independent spirit.
Having lived outside Palestine for a long time, in Turkey and Lebanon, he developed his own international contacts and networks. Israel, with its usually excellent intelligence services, must have been aware of its capabilities and perhaps its plans which are still unknown to the public. If al-Arouri was killed for a political reason, it could likely be due to his close and frequent physical contact with Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah and the many Iranian political and military representatives present in south Beirut. He likely engaged with them daily as a trusted partner. In this role, it will be difficult for Hamas to replace him immediately.
“Why now” is probably the key question. There is no doubt that Israel was immediately aware of its move to Beirut in 2015, after years of displacement; Although all Hamas leaders follow strict security procedures, these were surely more relaxed before October 7 and there would have been many opportunities to assassinate him earlier.
Hezbollah and its protector and patron, Iran, showed remarkable political restraint and patience in not rushing to attack Israel after the latter began bombing and then attacking Gaza. Israel’s initial calculation was to consider the possibility of Hezbollah opening a second front, but after almost three months of relative calm in the north, Israeli forces authorized themselves to demobilize five brigades, visibly convinced that whatever the battles they will have to fight in the future, they will be in the strip.
But many Israeli politicians, generals and influential figures have warned that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disagrees with the generals. Rather, he might consider that the continuation of the war is in his direct interest.
“Netanyahu’s government does not want this war to end. Politically, Netanyahu will have a major problem the day after (the end of the war), because that is when the investigations into the failures on the Israeli side will begin,” the former negotiator warned a few days ago Israeli peace minister Daniel Levy.
If you fear the end of the war, why not postpone it into the future, prolong it? Why not open another front in the north, have more men and women in uniform, keep the country on a war footing, preventing citizens and politicians from asking unpleasant questions? Why not take advantage of this timely opportunity to prolong the atmosphere in which far-right politicians, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, can continue to advocate extreme views such as the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and the resettlement of Israelis? All this would be consistent with the behavior of the Israeli prime minister, say experienced Netanyahu observers.
The big question now is whether Hezbollah will take the bait. A senior Iranian delegation, including several senior generals from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reportedly visited Beirut on Wednesday. Nasrallah apparently canceled his previously announced speech on Thursday, releasing a recorded speech on Wednesday in which he reiterated his usual warnings to Hezbollah’s enemies, but without revealing any concrete decisions. He is almost certainly discussing with his Iranian allies Hezbollah’s possible response to the Beirut killings.
The answer to the question “what happens next” could emerge from these meetings.