Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition finds itself under increasing pressure as the conflict between Israel and Iranian proxies intensifies and the United States and European Union call for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
As Israel raises the military stakes against its Iranian-backed adversaries, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is working to persuade his traditional Western partners that his muscular strategy is the only option to save Israel from apocalypse.
Although the United States and the European Union are increasingly demanding a ceasefire in Gazathe war is now extended to the Lebanese front.
Israel is under attack and fighting against Iran’s proxies, which could lead to a direct confrontation with the mullahs’ regime.
Meanwhile, the hard-right conservative government led by Netanyahu – a populist Likud politician with more than two decades of cabinet experience – is increasingly under pressure due to a myriad of alleged scandals and accusations conflicts of interest, as well as allegations of mismanagement of the war against Hamas and its goal of freeing Israeli hostages in Gaza.
Yet he managed to cling to power and retain his position as Israel opened a new front against Hezbollah.
How did he achieve this and what other cards does he have left to play?
“Government of national unity”
On December 29, 2022, Mr. Netanyahu, under pressure, formed a coalition cabinet with the Israeli ultra-conservatives.
The new executive has been greeted with skepticism by the more moderate sectors of Israeli society, which took to the streets more and more often to protest government reforms, such as overhaul of the judicial system. However, the events of October 7 changed everything.
Initially, the massacre of October 7 was considered by the Israeli population as a failure of the security forces and a personal blunder by Netanyahu, who campaigned as “Mr. Security.”
Yet the sense of urgency ultimately outweighed political wrangling, experts say.
“The massacres of October 7 changed the situation and gave birth to a government of national unity,” said Gregory Alegi, professor of politics at Luiss University in Rome, at Euronews.
“All Israelis agree on the need to protect and defend the country and make it safe. I think it’s a mistake to think that some people are against the overall goal.”
Despite an ongoing debate over the government’s strategic choices, Israelis feel they are fighting for the survival of their country, Mr. Alegi explained.
“There can be little doubt that this is a government of national unity that agrees on the fundamental point of the defense and preservation of Israel, both as a state and in as a place, a safe place for Jews and a symbol for Jews in the world. It hasn’t changed and it would be a mistake to think that we can do that.
“How can they separate the different parties and bring down the government?” asks Gregory Alegi.
Liberal centrists’ call of duty
After the attacks on Israel, the National Unity Party (the moderate liberal-centrist alliance) joined the war cabinet, bringing support from a significant portion of the Israeli population who previously opposed the hard-right government.
National Unity is led by two highly respected former IDF chiefs of staff, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot. However, they have left Mr. Netanyahu’s cabinet in June.
Mr Gantz resigned after Mr Netanyahu rejected his Washington-backed “six-point plan” on the future of Gaza and how to end the war.
Several months after the shock of the Hamas attack, political dissension once again prevailed, notably under pressure from the United States and the European Union, two essential partners in the eyes of many moderate Israelis.
Furthermore, for the first time in Israel’s history,he International Criminal Court has initiated proceedings against its prime ministerMr. Netanyahu, and a Minister of Defense, Mr. Gallant.
Furthermore, cohabitation with ultraconservative politicians like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has become impossible for Gantz.
The reasons for the centrist liberals’ resignation on June 9 are systemic and, four months later, still present: they revolve around sharply divergent opinions on the two-state solution and illegal settlements in the West Bank.
Both Smotrich’s and Ben-Gvir’s parties are radically opposed to the two-state solution and do not want to crack down on illegal settlers.
“The West Bank has been a problem, an issue, an international issue for a long time. And it’s the only part that is at least nominally under the control of the Palestinian Authority. So in many ways it’s both a positive symbol and a negative symbol,” Mr. Alegi said.
“There is a sign of the fear that extremists like Hamas will also take over the West Bank. It is clear that the answer is not indiscriminate Israeli colonization, nor the confiscation of property or the demolition of houses “, he explained.
“Beyond the legal basis, creating a climate of understanding could contribute to the search for a solution. The West Bank is therefore another important problem.”
What’s next for Bibi?
Is Netanyahu hostage to extremists or does he have a grand strategic plan, regardless of his allies?
His plans for the future could be as ambitious as regime change in Iran. Just last week, the Israeli Prime Minister addressed the Iranian people in a video message.
“When Iran is finally free, and this moment will arrive much sooner than we think, everything will be different (…). Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace,” declared Mr. .Netanyahu.
Military pressure on Gaza and Lebanon has increased, with more civilian deaths, as French President Emmanuel Macron called for an end to arms deliveries to Israel.
American Democrats are increasingly perplexed by the political costs of Israeli geopolitical strategy.
This could have a considerable impact on Israeli domestic politics. Could Netanyahu be abandoned by the United States?
“Ultimately, we saw just three days ago that the U.S. Navy will still help shoot down rockets and missiles fired against Israel” said Mr. Alegi.
“Make no mistake, this will not change. What might change is the external support, let’s say the showmanship, but the substance will remain unchanged, whoever leads Israel, whoever of the United States,” he concluded.