Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is accustomed to being the center of attention during his trips to the United States, basking in the glow of bipartisan support and ignoring the few American politicians who choose to criticize his country.
But his latest trip comes at a pivotal moment in the US presidential race: Democratic President Joe Biden announced the day before Netanyahu’s arrival that he was dropping his re-election bid. Instead of finding politicians willing to meet with him, Netanyahu has spent much of his trip in the shadow of local events.
He was forced to cut short his trip after a rocket attack on a Druze town in the occupied Golan Heights killed 12 people on Saturday. Israel blamed Hezbollah for the attack, but the Lebanon-based group denied responsibility.
While the European Union has called for an independent investigation into the incident and most countries have avoided blaming either side, the United States has accused Hezbollah of being behind the attack, underscoring Netanyahu’s reliance on Washington at a time when he is increasingly isolated at home and internationally.
The Israeli leader’s popularity is at an all-time low, with many Israelis frustrated by his failure to secure the release of prisoners captured in the October 7 Hamas attack who are still being held in Gaza.
In Washington, Netanyahu was able to deliver his fourth speech to the US Congress – the most by a foreign leader – to an enthusiastic audience that applauded every word he spoke. But dozens of lawmakers boycotted the event in protest of Israel’s conduct in Gaza, where its military has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians since October 7.
Netanyahu was able to meet with Biden, the presumptive new Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.
But Harris continued the meeting by highlighting the suffering of the people of Gaza. Even Trump said last week that Israel must end its war on Gaza quickly because of the bad publicity it has received and because the world does not take its war lightly.
The presidential race
Netanyahu’s trip, which comes as the U.S. electoral climate begins to heat up, was expected to be difficult, analysts said. The Israeli leader must strike a delicate balance, ensuring that all sides of the U.S. political divide are satisfied and avoiding any perception that he is supporting one side over another.
The presidential race that seemed to have Trump as the frontrunner is now more balanced, with Democrats backing Harris. The vice president has been keen to energize her party’s base, including by showing a more pro-Palestinian policy than Biden’s.
Earlier today, I made a statement to the press regarding my meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. pic.twitter.com/lNLSaufIvK
— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) July 26, 2024
“The main message that Netanyahu is likely to take away is that Harris is likely to be less of a blank check for him than Biden has already been, on the Democratic side, even if it’s minimal,” said H.A. Hellyer, a nonresident fellow in the Middle East program at the Carnegie Institute.
“Moreover, he appears to have resolved the dispute with Donald Trump during this trip, who was reportedly furious with Netanyahu when the latter congratulated Biden on his victory in the 2020 presidential election.”
“Netanyahu should be expected to continue exactly as he has done so far, at least until the November elections,” Hellyer added. “Both a Harris presidency and a Trump presidency will prioritize support for Israel, but it’s a question of how much, and Netanyahu certainly prefers a Trump presidency.”
Some analysts, however, believe that a victory for Trump – known for his capricious personality – could also have disadvantages for Netanyahu, hence the importance of a positive meeting during this trip.
“It’s not as simple as you might think,” said Mitchell Barak, a pollster and former Netanyahu aide.
“Netanyahu knows that Biden will not care about his actions if he wants to continue to contribute to the protection of Israel. With Trump, this is not the case. With Trump, it is above all a question of personal respect. He needs to know that he is respected,” Barak said.
Netanyahu’s speech to Congress proves that for the majority of politicians in Washington, DC – especially on the Republican side – unconditional support for Israel remains the norm. According to Hellyer, the prime minister’s trip was therefore more about maintaining the current US position and ensuring that dissenting voices are not heard – even if it risks upsetting his critics.
“The U.S.-Israel relationship as a whole hasn’t changed much as a result of Netanyahu’s trip, but there are trends that change the relationship over time, and this trip is part of that dynamic,” Hellyer said.
“The relationship between Washington and Israel is not as bipartisan as it used to be, and that is largely due to Netanyahu’s direct engagement in American politics. He has just done so more, and (those who disagree) within the Democratic Party on Israel will see his trip as further evidence of the depth of their disagreement.”
Domestic problems
Netanyahu found a more receptive audience in the U.S. Congress than in the Israeli Knesset.
In fact, while American lawmakers cheered and applauded his speech – with Netanyahu once asking them to stop and listen – American politicians and opponents criticized him.
“And the hostages? What did you say about them, apart from empty words?” asked opposition leader Yair Lapid.
On the streets, protests that began before the war against Netanyahu’s proposed judicial reforms continue, though their target has shifted. Today, thousands of Israelis are pouring into the streets of Tel Aviv and other cities across Israel, demanding a deal that Netanyahu’s ultranationalist coalition cabinet members inevitably reject, threatening the prime minister’s grip on power and bringing closer the reckoning over his October 7 inaction, as well as longstanding corruption charges.
Many Israelis therefore see his trip to the United States as an opportunity to take a break from their problems at home.
“He wanted to escape,” said Alon Pinkas, Israel’s former consul general to the United States from 2000 to 2004. “It’s a vanity tour, pure and simple. He’s doing what he thinks a prime minister does: talking. He’s not working on policy or negotiations, he’s just talking.”
“Congress provided everything Netanyahu asked for and more,” Pinkas added. “That he wanted to thank them is understandable, but this is a Zoom call, not an international visit.”
Given these domestic challenges and the United States’ continued global isolation, U.S. support for Israel is more vital than ever.
The United States provides Israel with weapons, economic aid, and diplomatic cover at the United Nations. It has also turned its ire on international institutions such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC) when they focus on Israel.
That’s why the United States is still an important stepping stone for Netanyahu. But while Israel still enjoys strong support in Washington, despite the devastation in Gaza, the increase in the number of American politicians willing to openly criticize Israel could be worrisome if it’s a sign of a broader shift to come.
“The U.S. government is pretty much the only supporter of Israel in the world,” said Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council. “Even in Europe, support is hesitant.” Rahman cited the example of the United Kingdom, where the new Labour government has dropped its challenge to the ICC’s request for arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. “So it makes sense to try to shore up that support in Washington,” he said.
“Although most Israelis do not believe much of what he said, especially regarding the return of the hostages, his speech and the enthusiastic reaction of members of the US Congress are a testament to his unique power in Washington,” Rahman continued.
“He has made his case to an American and international audience. Even though his arguments are flimsy and discredited, they resonate with many. And he wants the U.S. government to continue to support him and his war, despite increasing international pressure, particularly from international tribunals.”