US President Joe Biden is visiting Berlin this week after Hurricane Milton forced him to cancel his originally planned trip last week. But what could his visit before the US elections mean for NATO and the EU?
American President Joe Biden is on his way to the Old Continent. He is due to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Kier Starmer in Berlin as his presidency draws to a close. His visit was originally planned for last week and included a meeting at Germany’s Ramstein air base, where he was expected to meet Ukrainian President Zelensky and top European leaders.
Rumors were circulating that Ukraine’s accession to NATO could have been announced at the Ramstein meeting. Euronews spoke to transatlantic expert Rachel Tausendfreund, from the German Foreign Policy Society, to ask her about the likelihood of such an announcement. “Really important decisions, like the future of Ukraine or NATO membership, will not happen until November”or after the American election, she tempered.
As Joe Biden prepares to hand over the reins to either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, governments across Europe have drawn up plans for both scenarios, but Europe will in any case have to reduce its dependence on the United States.
Rachel Tausendfreund emphasizes that Europeans should obtain more weapons and ammunition and coordinate better. “Separately, they all buy a decent amount of stuff or produce a decent amount of material” but they do it alone but their capacity is “much lower than it should be”.
While France supports the production of combat aircraft or munitions as a European project, other countries, such as Germany, say weapons should be purchased wherever they are cheapest and most effective, including in Israel, which causes friction between states.
What about NATO if Donald Trump wins the presidential election?
“There are two scenarios”explains Rachel Tausendfreund. “France’s optimistic scenario is that ultimately everyone will agree with France that Europe cannot always rely on the United States and therefore must establish strategic autonomy. And it would also mean less reliance on U.S. systems, because there is a need and sometimes political support for the use of some of these weapon systems.”
According to the expert, this scenario is unlikely to come true, because the countries on the eastern flank of Europe, which feel vulnerable due to their proximity to Russia, rely on their relationship with the United States and focus on their own defense, which can lead to continued fragmentation in Europe for NATO member states.
Regarding the future of Ukraine, if Trump were to win the election in less than three weeks, the researcher believes that support for Ukraine would likely decline. “I think that Trump will push the parties more or less immediately to negotiate options and use military support as leverage to get Kyiv to negotiate. They will therefore be forced to negotiate whatever the scenario, at the beginning of January.”she believes, emphasizing that it will likely be important for Trump to get some sort of deal so he can sell it as a victory.
The best scenario for NATO under a Trump presidency would be toto have “a strong and coordinated European response with the United Kingdom.The only plausible way to achieve this is some sort of Europeanization of NATO that would still leave NATO quite strong.”. NATO states should achieve this by increasing their capabilities and filling gaps that might remain if the United States withdraws support. “A positive scenario would be that of a truly Europeanized NATO in which Europeans would provide 60% of defense and deterrence capabilities”, believes Tausendfreund. However, if NATO countries and the EU do not strengthen their defense capabilities, they could become very weak by 2025, she warns.
What if Kamala Harris wins?
“We are considering strong support for maybe two yearsbut with a view to finding an exit strategy”explains the analyst. She hopes that a presidency under Harris could encourage the EU to coordinate to strengthen the European pillar. She warns that if Europe continues on this path of not being united in decision-making, the effects will be negative and could lead to a weakening of European security by 2027 or 2028.
“The United States simply does not have the capacity to remain focused on Europe as much as it has been”she explains. Regarding Ukraine, Rachel Tausendfreund states that “If Harris wins, you can expect the same level of rhetorical support that we’ve had in the Biden administration. And I actually think another big spending plan would be possible, even if Republicans have control of the Senate, because a significant number of Republicans, maybe not quite the majority, but close, actually support aid to Ukraine, Ukraine, as long as the political pressure is not so high.”
What future for Ukraine?
In any case, pressure for NATO arming is unlikely to diminish, regardless of who is elected. Without better cooperation between Member States, Russia could become emboldened and “create unrest on the continent.”
But is it likely that Ukraine will one day join NATO? “Ukraine will need fairly strong security guarantees from NATO partners, whether in the form of membership or simply in the form of bilateral security guarantees. For this to work, these allies must be credible security providers and the Europeans have a lot of work to do.”adds Tausendfreund.
As for Zelensky’s peace plan, it’s an ambitious plan. This is clearly and simply putting down on paper what he thinks the Ukrainians would need to win. I’m not sure it’s very realistic that he gets it. He’s not going to get it from Biden.”
“I don’t think that’s going to happen.”says Tausendfreund. But under a Harris administration, there could still be more support.
ADVERTISEMENTSecurity experts are urging Europe to take a more united approach to weapons production and say it must accelerate tough decisions for NATO’s future.
