Morocco, Ivory Coast… close-up on the favorites and outsiders of the competition

Twenty-four nations vying to succeed Senegal and a single crown of king of Africa. As CAN 2024 begins on Saturday January 13 in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, France 24 analyzes the forces present in the competition which promises to be more competitive than ever.

Here are the favorites, the underdogs and the teams to watch for the 34^e edition of the African Cup.

• Favorites

Morocco: the end of the curse?

He is the ultra favorite of the competition. His team achieved what all of Africa dreamed of: qualifying for the final four of a World Cup. A spectacular performance that coach Walid Regragui now intends to confirm on the continental scene: “We want to maintain ourselves at the same level. I want to reach at least the semi-final,” declared the coach, announcing that he will resign if he does not does not succeed. “We must go there with complete confidence to overcome the curse of the African Cup.”

But the “curse” could play tricks on the Atlas Lions. Indeed, if Morocco is one of the most frequent representatives of Africa in the World Cup, the kingdom has only won one CAN in 18 participations. It was in 1976. Since then, the Kingdom has had a series of disappointments, including a final lost in 2004 in Tunisia. Worse, the Moroccans have only won one knockout match in the last decade. It was in 2022, and the adventure finally ended in the quarterfinals against Egypt with a fight between players and staff.

However, the time has come for optimism: “We have a good balance between the present and the future,” believes Regragui. In the squad, Ismael Saibari and Chadi Riad, who won Morocco’s first CAN Espoirs in 2023, can show their elders how to break a curse.

Senegal: a heavy champion’s costume to wear

Long mocked in Africa for its lack of title, Senegal has silenced the jokes for two years. After a lost final in 2019, his team won the 2022 CAN in Cameroon. And in the process, it won the CHAN, the CAN U17, the CAN U20, the CAN beach soccer… Supported by the best generation in its history and by brilliant young people, Senegal is at the top of African football and aims to retain his title. A performance that only Egypt, Ghana and Cameroon have managed to achieve so far.

Read alsoCAN 2024: Senegal, an extroverted model who wins in selection but not in clubs

The problem with being at the top is that you can only go back down. And weak signals are there. At the 2022 World Cup, the Lions of Téranga did not shine. The defeat against Algeria (0-1), in a friendly in September, also made certain shortcomings visible, and most of its executives migrated to Saudi Arabia, casting doubt on the ability to take on high-intensity matches. .

In addition, Senegal inherited a tougher group, with the Indomitable Lions of Cameroon, a derby against neighboring Gambia and Guinea which is never easy to maneuver. What is there to fear about going off the road in the first round, like the Algerian champion in 2022?

Ivory Coast: favorite at home

Aurier, Diomandé, Ndicka, Kossonou, Singo, Fofana, Kessié, Sangaré, Adingra, Haller, Konaté, Pépé… Don’t throw any more away! On paper, Ivory Coast has one of the most impressive squads on the table. Suffice to say that now is the time or never to regain its place in the African pantheon after three disappointing editions. Especially since the Elephants will play in front of their supporters, who are dreaming of a new coronation, after that of 2015.

However, at home, Ivory Coast will be under pressure. A pressure that often plays tricks on the host in the African Cup. Since Egypt in 2006, no team has won at home, even though the host countries had won 11 of the 25 previous CANs. The oldest supporters of the Elephants have not forgotten the shame of 1984, when Côte d’Ivoire experienced early elimination from the group stage.

• The outsiders

Algeria: a vengeful convalescent

The year 2022 was a annus horribilis for the Algerians. Yet crowned with a fine series of invincibility, Algeria experienced in quick succession a pitiful elimination in the first round in Cameroon then a cruel non-qualification for the World Cup in Qatar.

Djamel Belmadi will be revengeful for this CAN. He should be able to rely on a brilliant mix between his executives Riyad Mahrez, Ramy Bensebaini, Sofiane Feghouli, Ismaël Bennacer, and the emerging youth, with in particular Rayan Aït Nouri and Farès Chaibi at the head of the gondola. In September, Algeria sent a message by beating Senegal on their home turf: they are back.

Egypt: a team to never forget

In Africa, the Pharaohs are kings. With seven coronations, including a fabulous hat-trick between 2006 and 2010, the only one in the history of the competition, Egypt is still feared by its opponents. A rare team on the continent to present a list made up of 100% domestically trained players, Egypt has a very interesting record of 11 victories in 13 matches since the arrival of its coach, Rui Vitoria.

There remains a mental milestone to overcome. Indeed, the current generation of Pharaohs remains in two lost finals (2017 and 2021). Mohamed Salah, its international star, has still not won anything with his selection. However, it is difficult to bury the Egyptians too quickly, their collective discipline has allowed them more than once to defeat stronger opponents on paper.

Nigeria: a fire attack and after?

The Super Eagles’ offensive armada would give the most experienced defender in the world a cold sweat. And for good reason: Victor Osimhen, just crowned African player of the year 2023, Ademola Lookman, Samuel Chukwueze, Kelechi Iheanacho, Moses Simon, Sadiq Umar, Ahmed Musa…

However, football is played with 11 players and is not won with a stack of attackers and attacking midfielders, otherwise PSG would have won the Champions League a long time ago. The defensive sector and the goalkeeper position raise concerns about Nigeria’s ability to go far in the competition. Already in 2022, Nigeria had flown through the group stage before completely collapsing afterwards, the fault of the imbalance in the squad. The same evils should not cause the same effects.

Just like Egypt, Nigeria will be keen to maintain its position as an African giant: the country has already been crowned three times and has 15 podiums, an absolute record in the competition.

• Teams to watch

Mali: the Eagles ready to take off?

Often placed, never winner. Mali is the only nation not crowned on our list, despite a final in 1972 and podiums in 2012 and 2013. The 2024 edition may be the right one for this country renowned for its talents, regularly in the spotlight in the categories young people.

Eric Chelle relies in particular on one of the “best midfielders in the world”, in his own words. With Amadou Haïdara, Yves Bissouma and Mohamed Camara, it is true that he looks great. However, the absences risk being detrimental: Ibrahima Koné, Adama “Malouda” Traoré, Cheick Doucouré, are injured, while goalkeeper Mamadou Samassa declined his selection to concentrate on Stade Lavallois (French Ligue 2).

Tunisia: a level to pass?

Third African nation in the FIFA rankings (28th in the world), behind Morocco (13th) and Senegal (20th), Tunisia has nevertheless rarely shone at the CAN. In 20 appearances, the Carthage Eagles have only been crowned once, in 2004, at home, after being finalists in South Africa in 1996, and in 1965, again at home.

Tunisia has unfailing defensive solidity: the Carthage Eagles ended their qualifying campaign with just one goal conceded, the best record among the teams involved. However, we will have to be able to go the distance as the team is in full transition with the international retirement of Whabi Khazri and an aging Youssef Msakni, while new executives are slow to emerge.

Cameroon: always be wary of the sleeping lion

“A lion never dies, it sleeps,” says the Cameroonian proverb. However, the Indomitable Lions seem to have fallen into lethargy in recent months. The five-time winner of the event had a hard time qualifying, trembling until the very last match of the qualifiers. The current squad appears weak, with only Zambo-Anguissa and André Onana playing in leading European clubs.

However, Cameroon is capable of the best when you least expect it, like this prestigious victory against Brazil during the World Cup in Qatar. The Indomitable Lions won’t have to sleep too long, however, because the group of death awaits them.