The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria illegally declared its independence in 1990.
The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova may request or hold a referendum on its annexation to Russia at a recently announced congress of Transnistrian deputies scheduled for February 28.
The pretext for such an appeal would be the alleged need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” of Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO, or both.
The population of the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, which illegally declared independence in 1990, is around 470,000 people. Around 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed there.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is carrying out disinformation operations against Moldova very similar to those that Moscow used before its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.
Russian President Vladimir Putin could, in the most dangerous scenario, declare Russia’s annexation of Transnistria during his planned speech to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29, although this seems unlikely, according to the ISW.