The ongoing disagreements in the Israeli War Council between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the one hand and Defense Minister Yoav Galant and Minister Benny Gantz on the other hand show that Netanyahu seeks to rule Gaza militarily, and he adamantly refuses to deal with the so-called next day in Gaza. He also announced his rejection of the American proposal to empower the Palestinian Authority. A “renewed” Palestinian approach to the Gaza Strip after the end of the war.
What is the possible fate of this plan, which was linked to Netanyahu’s slogan of complete victory, in light of its lack of consensus among the occupation government, and its conflict with American trends in the war, especially with Israel’s continued failure to achieve the goals of the military operation in Gaza, and its loss of international cover for the continuation of the war?
The next day or military rule?
The idea of the next day coincided with the beginnings of the war on Gaza, and was linked to the announcement of the two goals of eliminating the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and recovering Israeli prisoners in Gaza.
The roots of this go back to the repeated positions of Israeli governments since 2007 following the Palestinian division, as Israel exploited this to talk about the lack of a Palestinian partner to cover up its insistence on rejecting any real political solution.
The severity of the shock after the October 7 attack and the national feeling of unity did not allow members of the government to express their differences on this or any other issue, but the differences rose to the surface with the implementation of a prisoner exchange between the resistance and Israel in the last week of November last year, which It showed that the priority was to liberate the prisoners.
However, the most important factor that escalated the differences was the continued failure of the occupation to achieve the goal of eliminating Hamas, and the failure to free any prisoner by force. The massacres that claimed the lives of children and women caused a wave of global reactions against Israel, which made it lose its credibility globally, and also negatively affected the The electoral standing of the administration of US President Joe Biden, and the pro-war coalition formed by this administration.
With Netanyahu’s decision to attack Rafah, and the accompanying severe resistance faced by the occupation forces returning to Jabalia, north of Gaza, the Israeli government’s disagreements exploded with Gallant announcing that he would oppose any military rule in the Strip.
Gallant’s statements – and after him Gantz, who threatened to withdraw from the government unless Netanyahu defines a clear strategy for the war and its aftermath – are considered a clear and frank accusation against Netanyahu that he seeks to rule Gaza militarily, and this means the continued presence of the occupation forces in the Strip for months and perhaps years.
Gallant and Gantz’s justifications for rejecting this are clear, and relate to the price that Israel will pay for it, with the failure that the occupation forces face in achieving complete victory, as they stressed that the continuation of military rule in Gaza will be bloody and costly and will last for years, and that in this case the army will need enormous forces, and will suffer Heavy human losses force him to leave Gaza forever.
The Israeli newspaper Yedioth later revealed that this ruling would cost about $6 billion, a cost that Israel could not bear in light of the high costs it bore as a result of the war, and its negative impact on the economy.
It is noted that Netanyahu’s opponents have escalated their stance against him in light of the army’s mounting losses in Gaza, while he insists on refusing to present a plan for the next day, because he does not have this plan at all, and wants to continue maneuvering politically in order to continue the war in order to retain the government and prevent him from being subjected to judicial accountability for corruption and failure on October 7. /October.
We refer here to what Channel 12 political analyst Amit Segal said about the way Netanyahu thinks, saying, “By completing the phase of military operations as a first phase, where military rule will be established for a period extending between months and a few years, and after that, when Hamas transforms from a terrorist army into an organization.” Gangs, from a gang organization to a group of a few cells, Arab civilian parties are entering the Gaza Strip as a second stage.”
Hamas will not disappear
However, it is important to point out the motivation that Washington gave to the issue of the day after the war, as the Biden administration is waging the war on Gaza alongside Israel, and still stresses the importance of defeating Hamas, because it considered the implementation of the Al-Aqsa flood attack to be a blow to the American strategy based on installing Israel as an agent. It has the right to control the region “in order to achieve stability and calm, end the issue and complete the normalization process that was initiated by former President Donald Trump.”
Washington considers that Hamas’ continued enjoyment of military power constitutes an obstacle to completing the project to hand over the region to Israel, so that it can be devoted to China and Russia. However, with the continuation of the battle in Gaza, disagreements emerged with the Israeli government on issues: targeting civilians, the post-war vision, and Netanyahu’s rejection of any role for the Authority. The rejection of the Palestinian state and the insistence on invading Rafah without arranging a safe shelter for those displaced there.
However, the dispute that is due now is the post-war vision, related to the future role of the renewed Palestinian Authority, and this is what the American administration agrees with Netanyahu’s opponents, which gives it an incentive to put pressure on him.
In light of the estimates of the American intelligence services, which they agreed with the Israeli security services, the occupation forces failed to achieve the goal of eliminating Hamas, and that “Hamas will most likely not disappear from the Gaza Strip,” and that what is required is to weaken Hamas to the point where it will not be able to launch another attack.
According to an American official who spoke to Maariv newspaper, “The Americans learned the hard way, through their falling into the Vietnamese, Afghan, and Iraqi mire, that in the absence of diplomatic action, battles tend to turn into a long-term war of attrition that costs heavy losses.”
Therefore, the American administration no longer sees the benefit of continuing the war at the current pace, and is pressuring Netanyahu to accept a reasonable prisoner exchange deal, which will lead to sustainable calm, preparing the atmosphere for regional arrangements, and accepting the involvement of the Palestinian Authority in the post-war arrangements as a price offered to Saudi Arabia to accept a normalization process that serves Biden. In his battle for the presidency next November.
Washington believes that no Arab country participates in any vision based on the military rule that Netanyahu wants, and that it will not accept being transformed into a contractor for Israel and the management and reconstruction of Gaza, while Israel reserves the freedom to carry out attacks and military operations.
Indeed, Egypt, the Emirates, and Jordan rejected such a role, even though a disturbing signal was issued by the Arab Summit in Bahrain demanding the presence of peacekeeping protection forces in the occupied Palestinian territory.
A dispute over the skin of a bear before it was hunted
It seems that Gantz’s recent escalation with Netanyahu and his threat to withdraw from the government came after consultation with the American administration, which supported him and included him in the Israeli emergency government. This will put Netanyahu in the jaws of pincers, between his commitment to his alliance with Ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich and the insistence on continuing the war and rejecting the exchange deal. And between a coalition consisting of Galant, Gantz, and Gadi Eisenkot.
With a wide range of differences, if understandings are not reached between these parties, the chances of the emergency government disintegrating will increase, especially with the escalation of protests by the families of the prisoners.
It is true that Gantz’s departure from the government will not lead to its downfall, especially since Netanyahu will continue to retain a majority of 64 votes in the Knesset, but the mere resignation of Gantz and Eisenkot will lead to interactions in the government and the street that may result in resignations from the ruling coalition, leading to it losing its majority.
It is certain that the Biden administration has pressure cards on the Netanyahu government in addition to its influence on the opposition. It can postpone more arms shipments, which will affect the decision to expand the invasion of Rafah, but the restrictions on Biden in Congress may prevent Washington from taking such punitive measures.
Therefore, the most effective pressure on Netanyahu will be internally, which may push him to make changes in his positions and try to appease his right-wing partners in one way or another, even though he still needs the element of staying in the government and avoiding being held accountable if he leaves it.
The occupation army’s continued commission of massacres against civilians will have negative repercussions on the international scene, some of which have appeared with the International Criminal Court’s request to arrest Netanyahu and Gallant, or the demands to stop the war from the International Court of Justice. This will further weaken Netanyahu’s position, and may push him to agree to the demands of his opponents.
However, the dilemma facing all of these parties is that the next day’s plan is based on weakening the Hamas movement, which has not been achieved so far. Rather, the resistance in the north has shown an effectiveness equivalent to its effectiveness in the first days of the war, and continues to inflict losses on the ranks of the occupation, and it has even failed. Now there are attempts to integrate the tribes, or some parties of the Palestinian Authority, into controlling the distribution of aid to the Palestinian people.
This indicates the continued effectiveness of its control and command system, in addition to the high morale and determination shown by resistance fighters in general, as revealed by the videos being published of confrontations with the occupation forces.
The Israelis themselves talk about the strength of the movement not only on the military level, but also on the civil level, which makes the dispute over the next day a dispute over the skin of the bear before it is hunted.
We conclude here with what Knesset Member Ram Ben Barak, who served as Deputy Head of the Intelligence Service (Mossad) from 2009 to 2011, and Chairman of the Knesset Security and Foreign Affairs Committee between 2021-2022, said, and his summary is: “Our war in Gaza is without a goal, and it is clear that we are losing it. We will return.” We will fight in the same areas and lose more soldiers, our economy will collapse, we will lose on the international scene, our relations with Washington will collapse and we will not achieve any success.”