Occupied JerusalemIsraeli political analysts talk about an atmosphere of pessimism in the Israeli scene in light of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on escaping responsibility, despite the losses in soldiers and equipment in the Gaza battles.And what may result from this Israel “Into the unknown,” as they described it.
The Palestinian resistance factions inflicted on the Israeli army heavy losses in soldiers, officers, equipment and military vehicles during the first three weeks of this May, and during the fierce battles in the Rafah and Jabalia regions, Gaza City and the northern Gaza Strip.
The occupation army acknowledged the killing of 23 soldiers and officers since the beginning of this month, while the security services also announced the killing of 13 Israeli civilians, including 4 prisoners whose bodies the Israeli army claimed to have recovered from the Gaza Strip.
Since the start of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” on October 7, 2023, 1,534 Israelis have been killed, including 631 soldiers and officers, of whom 283 were killed during the ground incursion into the Gaza Strip. Also, 3,535 soldiers were injured since the beginning of the war, including 1,747 who were injured during the ground operation, and among the wounded, 543 of them were seriously injured, according to Israeli army data.
Promote cleavage
While positions varied regarding the repercussions of the escalation of losses on the course of the war, political analyzes unanimously agreed on the role and importance of the demonstrations demanding the return of prisoners as part of an exchange deal. However, it estimated that internal protests alone are not enough, and real external pressure must be exerted from America and Europe on the Israeli government, which is still exploiting the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle in order to justify the continuation of the war on Gaza.
The readings of political analysts agreed that Israeli society has not yet recovered from the “collective shock” caused by the events of October 7, 2023, and they estimated that the Hamas attack greatly undermined the ability of Israeli society to withstand.
According to these analyses, the state of frustration among Israelis helps reinforce the internal division over returning prisoners as part of a possible exchange deal or pressuring Hamas through expanding military operations.
Under the title, “After 7 months of war, Israel’s ability to withstand is clearly declining,” the Institute for Security Research at Tel Aviv University issued a position estimate regarding the conduct of the war and the issue of the so-called next day.
The institute spoke of a continuing decline in what it called “the immunity and steadfastness of Israeli society,” especially in the faltering war in the Gaza Strip, the fate of the prisoners, the difficult situation faced by those evacuated from the settlements in the south and north, and the ongoing operations against Hezbollah and the emerging front against Iran.
Exciting signs
A number of challenges stand out to the ability of Israeli society to withstand, including the insufficient performance of the government and the political system, the escalation of disputes within the emergency government in light of the losses in soldiers and equipment, the failure to achieve any strategic goal of the war, the absence of a horizon for resolving the issue of prisoners and their return, and the poisoned Israeli public discourse. According to Anat Shapira, a researcher at the Security Research Institute.
Shapira, who participated in drafting the situation assessment, said, “The current picture of resilience and steadfastness in Israel is complex. Although there are still some encouraging signs, as the war continues and the social, economic and military losses mount, signs indicate a clear decline in Israel’s steadfastness.”
She pointed out that although “public confidence in the Israeli army remains high, the worrying signs relate to a significant decline in confidence in the army’s ability to win and achieve its declared war goals.”
The Israeli researcher pointed to the growing lack of confidence in the performance of the Netanyahu government, and the decline in support for the war’s goals, which may be seen today as completely out of reach, amid a decline in community solidarity and a sense of optimism and hope.
For his part, the military correspondent for the Israeli “Wala” news website, Amir Boukhbout, believes that the recent losses incurred by the army obligate the Israeli political level to determine the new stages of the ground operation in Rafah.
Dragging Israel into the unknown
Boukhbout pointed out that senior army officers warn that without knowing what the next target is, the movement and incursion of the 162nd Division will be exposed and known to Hamas fighters.
According to military estimates according to Bakhbout, the armed organizations in the city of Rafah and the surrounding area are well aware of the “restrictions” under which the 162nd Division operates, and these organizations are even preparing in light of the movement and deployment of Israeli forces.
Accordingly – as the military correspondent says – Hamas and the armed factions are able to achieve tactical advantage and advantages in the fight against the Israeli army.
He explains that senior field officers confirmed – to the senior leadership of the Army Staff, which toured the combat zones in the Rafah area – that all military teams find it very difficult to maneuver on the ground due to “restrictions.” For this reason, it finds it difficult to achieve the desired achievement of the declared objectives of the war.
Aside from the debate in Israeli circles regarding achieving the goals of the war, and the slogan of “absolute victory” that Netanyahu is promoting in light of the continuing rise in losses, Haaretz newspaper editor Alon Ben suggests that Netanyahu is dragging Israel into the unknown in light of his aspirations to occupy the Gaza Strip.
He explained that Netanyahu, who has always evaded responsibility and always hides behind strong figures, prefers to be seen as weak and refrains from fighting for controversial positions, and his tendency to shift responsibility onto others has increased since he led Israel to the “October 7 disaster” and the war of attrition. In Gaza and the northern border with Lebanon.
Alon Bein believes that from the moment Netanyahu recovered from the shock he suffered when the war broke out, he remained steadfast in presenting his “for the next day” policy of reoccupying the Gaza Strip, as he repeatedly declared that “after eliminating Hamas, Gaza will be demilitarized, and under Israeli security control.