The two main candidates represent the left and the right of the Finnish political spectrum and are separated by only three percentage points when advance polls open.
Finns head to the polls this week to vote early in the presidential election, with the main vote taking place at the end of the month.
Voting patterns suggest that a third of voters at home and abroad could vote before January 28, with Finns abroad also eligible to vote during this period.
Among the nine candidates in the running, two are the big favorites for the second round which will take place in mid-February, although a surge by the far-right candidate could still create a surprise.
Two former foreign ministers, Alexander Stubbfrom the right-wing National Coalition party (known locally as “Kokoomus”), And Pekka Haavistoa Green League party politician, took a clear lead in opinion polls during a long campaign that saw candidates scrutinize everything from their foreign policy skills to their from their favorite music, books and foods, to the cars they drive and their pets’ posts on social media.
THE latest polls show that Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto are within three percentage points of each other.
In Finland, the president is one of the few in Europe to be elected by direct universal suffrage and not to have an essentially ceremonial role, unlike Italy, Germany, Estonia or Poland, For example. This position also carries constitutional responsibility for foreign policy outside the EU, and its holder is the Commander-in-Chief of the Finnish Defense Forces.
But the president cannot act unilaterally: he must work cooperatively with the government in power during his six-year term as Finland’s head of state.
The function gained importance under the presidency of Sauli Niinistöas Finland prepared to consolidate its decades-long alignment with NATO and officially join the military alliance.
Alexander Stubb represents the right
Alexander Stubb, the US-educated former Finnish prime minister and foreign minister, has been away from front-line politics for the past seven years. He first worked at the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, then at a university in Italy.
His side, “Kokoomus”formed a coalition government with the far-right party “Finns”who since coming to power last summer has faced controversies over racism, support for ethno-nationalist conspiracy theories and links to neo-Nazi groups.
Although Alexander Stubb has so far stayed away from the government fray, he still attracts the support of far-right voters, who would prefer him to the presidential palace rather than his liberal, green, gay opponent.
“With Alexander Stubb, voters would get a president with very good international relations and political experience, as well as in-depth knowledge of the European Union and European politics”explains Jenny Karimäki, political scientist atuniversity of Helsinki.
Alexander Stubb, who is multilingual, has been a staunch pro-European throughout his political career and supported NATO membership, long before it was fashionable. His Swedish-Finnish origin, elitist upbringing, penchant for designer suits and sometimes brusque attitude may offend working-class Finns.
Alexander Stubb’s campaign committee said it was too busy to answer questions sent in advance by Euronews.
Pekka Haavisto represents the left
This is Pekka Haavisto’s third attempt to become president of Finland. He came second in the last two elections, behind Sauli Niinistö.
Openly homosexual European Prime Minister, Pekka Haavisto has lived with his partner for more than 20 years. He is a trailblazer for LGBTQ representation at the highest levels of politics: he led his party and worked as a United Nations envoy.
“Voters would have a president who held a key position as foreign minister during the NATO process in Finland and who therefore has cutting-edge knowledge in the areas of foreign policy and security, as well as ‘experience as a peace negotiator in the Global South’explains Jenny Karimäki from the University of Helsinki.
Pekka Haavisto explains to Euronews that there is a feeling of “positive dynamic” in his campaign, as he travels the country in a new campaign bus.
“People are very eager to discuss national security. There is a lot of enthusiasm in the air”he confides.
Apparently able to avoid potential scandals with ease during his tenure at the Foreign Ministry, Pekka Haavisto was nonetheless criticized for his handling of the program to bring back Finnish nationals married to ISIS fighters, along with their children, who were stuck in a refugee camp in Syria.
Pekka Haavisto may have gone too far in trying to present himself as a universal candidate, while alienating part of the left. As part of a strategy to attract voters from the center and moderate right, Pekka Haavisto said he was not a candidate “red”. He brushed aside this misstep by telling Euronews that “party membership is not at the forefront” of this campaign.
“Pekka Haavisto’s background as well as his skills and management style have been evaluated by the Finnish media”adds Jenny Karimäki, from the University of Helsinki.
Seven other candidates in a hotly contested race
Seven other candidates are in the running, but so far, none of them have managed to break through at the national level.
Li Anderssonleader of the Left Alliance party, is considered one of the most successful politicians of her generation, but her poll numbers are still average.
Jutta Urpilainenon leave from her post as European Commissioner in Finland, only entered the race late, and somewhat half-heartedly, late last year, but she failed to gain any real traction for the social democrats.
Sari Essayahformer MEP and world speedwalking champion over 10,000 meters in 1993, is in her second presidential campaign and still obtains between 1% and 2% of the votes, while Hjallis Harkimomillionaire reality TV star who created his own political party, “Movement Now”also drags in the same proportions.
Olli Rehnfrom the Center Party, another former European commissioner and current president of the Bank of Finland, ran a strong campaign and appears “presidential” in his appearances, but his party’s national fortunes have been in the doldrums since the last general election , which will almost certainly affect him: Olli Rehn will be lucky if he gets more than 10% of the votes in the first round.
Mika Aaltola, an independent candidate specializing in foreign policy, has seen his popularity drop like a stone, while he was one of the main candidates a year ago, and today he only obtains a small percentage. The lack of party infrastructure to support his campaign and his lack of political experience proved to be the weak points of his presidential bid.
The candidate of the far-right Finns party, Jussi Halla-ahotried to inflame the campaign with increasingly populist rhetoric: he filed a complaint against a young Green politician and a comedian for calling him a “fascist”. He also said that members of Parliament and government ministers should be native Finns with no foreign origin, which was criticized as unconstitutional.
But could he make a late populist breakthrough and advance to the runoff?
“To my knowledge, Jussi Halla-aho’s support comes mainly from Finns Party supporters and he has not been able to attract support from all parties”explains Jenny Karimäki, from the University of Helsinki.
“The Finns Party’s support is around 17% and if he manages to convince them all, the race could be close, but for that, Jussi Halla-aho would have to win back all the Finns Party supporters who currently support Alexander Stubb“, she explains.
“So far, Jussi Halla-aho’s campaign has not revealed any particularly new aspects of himself and his policies that could tip the scales in his favor over Alexander Stubb“, she concludes.