Following the completion of the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel, the media space is filled with news about conditions conducive to concluding a prisoner exchange deal that leads to a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, and thus reaching in the final stage an end to the war and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip.
The position of those promising a deal soon depends on several variables that have coincided recently, including the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, internal pressure in Israel, and the presence of shifts in Israeli public opinion, in which statistics indicate that about two-thirds of Israelis support ending the Gaza war in exchange for the release of prisoners. While this percentage reaches 56% of the right-wing audience.
Some analysts also believe that the failure of the occupation to achieve its goals in Gaza, and its inability to find an alternative administration in the Strip, pushes towards completing an exchange deal after the issue of Israeli prisoners in Gaza turned into a dilemma for their government.
In addition to this, the American position fluctuates between the administration of departing President Joe Biden, which seeks to achieve a breakthrough in the Gaza file, as happened in Lebanon before its departure, and the administration of President-elect Donald Trump, which hopes to resolve matters before its arrival.
Israel is talking to itself
Despite the large number of Israeli statements indicating readiness to conclude a deal, Tel Aviv has not yet presented a serious offer from which it can proceed. Israeli and American media reported that the heads of the security services in Israel are preparing a plan about a possible deal, but they confirm that the deal negotiations are still stalled.
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported on Monday that the Israeli army and the security establishment have noticed in recent days a combination of factors that could push the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to a quick deal with Israel.
She added that officials in the Israeli security establishment believe that there is an opportunity to achieve a breakthrough in the negotiations to recover the detainees, and they recommend that the political level exploit it to conclude a deal to temporarily stop the war in Gaza.
In this context, the American website Axios, citing informed sources in Tel Aviv, said that the leaders of the security services in Israel believe that the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must modify its position to reach a deal in Gaza.
News coming from Tel Aviv also speaks of new positions by Netanyahu stating that there is an opportunity to reach a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas.
During an interview with Israeli Channel 14 last Thursday, Netanyahu said that circumstances had changed for the better in the Gaza war, expressing readiness to sign a ceasefire agreement at any moment, “but without ending the war.”
He continued that after the assassination of the head of the Hamas political bureau, Yahya Sinwar, and the separation of the fronts between Gaza and Lebanon, “the terms of the exchange deal changed in favor of Israel.”
Washington is putting pressure on Hamas
For its part, Washington is urging steps to achieve the agreement. The White House announced yesterday that the United States is working with its partners to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.
He continued that President Joe Biden “will continue to work to reach an agreement to release our citizens, through diplomacy and pressure on Hamas with sanctions, and we will use legal procedures and other measures to pressure the movement to release the hostages.”
The Israeli and American parties believe that Hamas’s position was greatly affected after the agreement that stopped the war in southern Lebanon, so it will accept any agreement, but the movement remains firm on its terms, and this is what White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan expressed, that Hamas is the party. The president who “holds the vision” for a ceasefire agreement.
Yesterday, President-elect Donald Trump entered the line of threats and announced that if the detainees in the Gaza Strip are not released before his inauguration on January 20, there will be “hell” in the Middle East.
He said in a post on social media, “The officials will receive more severe blows than any person has received in the long and rich history of the United States of America. Release the prisoners now.”
Hamas’ position
To date, Hamas has not issued any reaction to these statements, except that the movement is still adhering to its conditions of ending the war, withdrawing the occupation army from Gaza, and bringing aid into the Strip.
According to a source close to Hamas – who requested to remain anonymous – the movement did not receive any new offers from the mediators to formulate an agreement or exchange deal to be negotiated, indicating that the American and Israeli statements and movements in this context did not contain any content or proposals to negotiate.
The source added in his interview with Tel Aviv Tribune Net that the administration of President Biden may be serious about achieving an agreement on the Gaza front before the arrival of President-elect Trump, who also prefers that the war stop before his inauguration in order to devote himself to other files, but this approach has not been translated into proposals presented to the movement for negotiation. about it or discuss it.
What confirms this trend of the occupation is what the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth quoted an informed source as saying, “Israel is ready for a ceasefire, in order to recover the hostages, not to end the war,” explaining that “the heads of the security establishment and the negotiation team made it clear to Netanyahu that the time has come to conclude a deal.” .
But on the other hand, the Israelis are convinced that Hamas will not abandon its positions, but their estimates indicate that it is possible to obtain some concessions regarding the time periods related to the presence of the Israeli army in some areas of the Gaza Strip.
The presence of the occupation army in the Netzarim axis remains a dilemma for both parties in which it is difficult to make any concessions, especially with the news that the establishment of a buffer zone in the Strip has been completed.
The bottom line, according to the source close to the Hamas movement, is that what hinders any movement to achieve any agreement is Netanyahu’s hardline position in rejecting any negotiating movement with the Hamas movement as an authentic Palestinian national political entity that will be a party to any future political equation, and will have a fundamental role on the ground in Any plan for the next day in Gaza. He views the movement’s role from a narrow perspective of liberating Israeli prisoners only.