It is a pivotal moment in the American presidential campaign that will be played out on Thursday evening with the very first televised debate of the 2024 electoral season pitting the incumbent president, Joe Biden, against the populist former president Donald Trump.
In an uncertain race that, five months before the election, still places Democrats and Republicans neck and neck, these 90 minutes should be crucial for the two men. From CNN studios in Atlanta, they will have to find the right tone, the exact posture and the key statement to try to change fixed perceptions and convince undecided voters of the value of their respective political projects. A risky game, for both, placed in uncharted territory, as much by the singular character of the participants — two aging politicians, one of whom has just been convicted of concealing a bribe and remains hunted by the courts for attempted coup d’état — as by the hasty setting of this meeting: it is the first time since 1960, the beginning of the history of American televised debates, that such a face-off has been presented to voters so early in the election season, before the end of September.
“Both candidates have a lot to lose,” political scientist Patrick Stewart, a specialist in presidential debates at the University of Arkansas, noted in an interview. “Donald Trump (78) and Joe Biden (81) are both middle-aged and advanced, and their performance in this encounter is going to be closely scrutinized, both for content and nonverbal behavior.”
In recent weeks, the Republican camp has decided to go after Joe Biden by exacerbating in video montages broadcast online moments that appear to show him lost and confused. There was one, according to them, at the G7 meeting in Italy. There was another at a fundraising event held on June 16 in California with Barack Obama. The president gives the impression of freezing for several seconds on stage, before walking stiffly towards the exit accompanied by the former Democratic president. The president’s entourage accuses Donald Trump’s team of maliciously editing images.
“By constantly attacking Joe Biden’s age and mental health, the Republican Party and Donald Trump have set a very low bar for the president going into this debate,” Stewart said. And it could backfire on them. »
Overcoming perceptions
“Joe Biden must try to project a robust image, and this, by offering clear and precise answers to the questions that the moderators will ask him,” comments W. Joseph Campbell, professor emeritus of communications at American University, joined last week in Washington. If he hesitates during the debate or offers confusing answers, it certainly won’t help his campaign. »
But conversely, in this climate, “if he demonstrates even passable cognitive acuity, this could allow him to shine and thus confirm his ability to lead a second term,” adds Mr. Stewart.
By constantly attacking Joe Biden’s age and mental health, the Republican Party and Donald Trump have set the bar very low for the president for this debate. And it could backfire on them.
In the last few days, Donald Trump has also begun to prepare the ground to plant his next criticisms and above all to germinate his predictable rewriting of reality, in the event that Thursday’s debate brings out such a scenario. For several days, he and his entourage have been suggesting that a good performance by Joe Biden could not be achieved without the Democrat’s use of “performance drugs”, they assert. The same story of cheating through doping had been carried by the Republican camp in order to minimize the good performance and especially the positive reception of the State of the Union speech, given earlier this year by the president in Washington.
Last week, during a political rally in Racine, Wisconsin, the former Republican president also asked his supporters to “be wary” of this debate, suggesting that he would find himself in an unfair framework and biased in favor of Joe Biden. A refrain known for the populist since his defeat in 2020 and his eternal questioning of the results of the polls. “I’m going to debate with three people instead of half of one,” he said, mocking his Democratic opponent and speaking of the two moderators, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, of CNN, to whom he will make face.
Remember that the details of this debate were carefully negotiated by the teams of the two parties present.
The specter of misstep
Even though Donald Trump has politically and against all odds survived a series of legal proceedings and several setbacks since his crushing 2020 electoral defeat — which he has never acknowledged — the man is preparing to play big in the debate on Thursday. “Any misstep or lack of stamina, which would contradict the image he has built, could be damaging,” warns Patrick Stewart, speaking of an atypical debate, where the two candidates have a past and a political present at the White House to defend. “Donald Trump arrives with his policies and actions as 45e president of the United States, and it could also put him in uncomfortable situations. »
Last Thursday, a Fox News poll muddied the waters in the run-up to the debate by also revealing for the first time in the ultraconservative network’s recent monthly opinion measurements a two-point lead for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. This hasn’t happened since last October.
More worryingly, in the wake of the populist’s conviction by a New York citizen jury in a case of paying bribes to a former porn actress, 21% of independent voters, according to Ipsos, now say they are less likely to support the candidacy of the Republican found criminally responsible for his actions, a proportion that could swing the outcome of the November vote, particularly in the context of a close election.
“Donald Trump must seek to broaden his support through this debate,” said Alan Schroeder, a specialist in political communications at the School of Journalism at Northeastern University in Boston, in an interview. But if he spends the 90 minutes of the debate complaining about witch hunts and talking about stolen elections, that shouldn’t help him achieve that goal.” Complaints which are part of his narrative arsenal to galvanize his troops and which it is unlikely that they will not reach the CNN studio on Thursday evening, believes for his part W. Joseph Campbell. “I suspect it’s going to be difficult for him (not to mention it),” he said.
The effect of televised debates on the change in behavior and perception of voters is an inexact science which, for years, has provided random and sometimes contradictory portraits, depending on the times and the candidates involved in these meetings. Thus, in 1960, the young John F. Kennedy paved the way to his victory against Richard Nixon, by handily winning the image war during the first American televised debate. Conversely, even though he turned out to be the big winner of the first debate against President Barack Obama in 2012, Republican Mitt Romney did not gain the necessary advantages to enter the White House.
