2/6/2024–|Last updated: 6/2/202402:01 PM (Mecca time)
The chief correspondent and analyst in the Middle East for the Israeli newspaper “Jerusalem Post” wondered who would be the victor if the ceasefire plan currently announced by US President Joe Biden is implemented.
Seth J. Frantzman said – in an article in the newspaper – that the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) will be the victor in the Gaza war, because Biden’s plan will leave it in power in the Strip, thus enabling it to benefit from the reconstruction there, and it will have a hand in every building that is rebuilt.
He explained that Israel itself defined its goals in Gaza in a flexible manner, without a clear strategy, so that Hamas could be left in power under the current plan.
Hamas is stronger
The writer cited excerpts from Biden’s statements about the plan and its results, and his saying that Hamas is no longer able at this stage to carry out another attack similar to the October 7 attack.
The writer responded to this by saying that it is possible that this round will end with Hamas gaining greater strength than it was in the past, even though it lost tunnels and employees.
He pointed out that the general direction of the war now appears as if it will leave Hamas in power, and it appears that Israel is in the process of abandoning its main condition that it has adhered to until now, which is the elimination of the movement.
He added that if Hamas were allowed to survive, it would declare victory, saying that its leaders had not been accused of committing “crimes” on October 7, meaning they would likely seek to control the West Bank in the coming years.
Greater isolation
On the other hand, Frantzman said that Israel will emerge from this war more isolated than it was in the past. He wondered about the “sacrifice” made by Israel by killing hundreds of its soldiers.
He continued to say that if Israel’s enemies felt that they had won, there would be more provocations in the future; Hezbollah was not deterred, and it and Hamas could push Israel in the future to evacuate its northern borders.
He said that Israel spent a lot of its political capital fighting this slow war, which it launched without a desire to achieve a decisive and quick victory, and Hamas units in central Gaza, for example, were not severely damaged, and the Israeli army did not defeat them in Nuseirat, Deir al-Balah, al-Maghazi and al-Bureij.
The war also weakened the Palestinian Authority, leading to the conflagration of the northern West Bank, and facilitating the flow of weapons to “terrorist groups” there.