Lebanon is on alert ahead of Hezbollah leader Syed Hassan Nasrallah’s expected Friday speech on Israel’s war on Gaza, which residents and experts fear could fuel regional tensions if he commits to intensifying attacks on Israel.
Fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has intensified along their tense border in recent weeks. The Lebanese armed group claims to have lost 47 fighters while Israel says six of its soldiers were killed. At least six civilians were also killed.
Still, some believe Nasrallah could be preparing his southern Lebanese voters for an intensification of conflict, even though many fear a war could upend their lives as it has in the past.
South Lebanon has historically suffered far more from Israeli aggression than any other region in the country – including a 15-year occupation by Israel between 1985 and 2000.
“Even among (Nasrallah) supporters, there are people who think that (the south) has always fought Israel (in the past) and that right now… we are not ready for war,” said Mohamad, a resident of southern Lebanon who did not disclose his last name, for fear that speaking out about Hezbollah would harm his livelihood.
Violence between Israel and Hezbollah erupted shortly after Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israeli military outposts and civilians on October 7. About 1,400 people were killed, according to Israeli officials.
Israel responded by relentlessly bombing Gaza and carrying out ground invasions. Gaza’s health ministry says more than 8,000 Palestinians have been killed, including more than 3,000 children. Many more people are dying because of Israel’s stifling siege, which several legal experts say constitutes a war crime under international law. After October 7, Israel completely blocked the entry of food, fuel, medicine and other essential supplies into Gaza. While some humanitarian trucks carrying food and medicine have been allowed to pass through the Rafah crossing with Egypt in recent days, Israel still does not allow fuel into the enclave, crippling hospitals that need electricity to run life-saving machines.
Despite growing calls for a ceasefire, Israel has said it will not stop attacking Gaza until it eradicates Hamas, which forms a so-called “axis of resistance” with Hezbollah, other Shiite armed groups in the region and their sponsor Iran.
But Nasrallah could warn Israel to reconsider its goal, analysts say.
“I believe that Hezbollah…sees this conflict as an existential conflict,” said Mohannad Hage Ali, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center. “They believe that if Israel succeeds in achieving its goals of eradicating Hamas in the Gaza Strip, then they will turn around and face what they see as the threat from Hezbollah. »
Hearts and minds
Hezbollah has struggled to regain support in the Sunni Arab world after intervening in Syria to save President Bashar al-Assad, an ally from a branch of Shiite Islam.
Al-Assad allowed Iranian weapons and goods to pass through his territory to reach Hezbollah in Lebanon. And at the height of the war, Hezbollah besieged and starved civilians who opposed the Syrian regime.
Hezbollah’s involvement refuted its claims that its weapons were used exclusively to defend against Israeli aggression. But Nasrallah could now see the crisis in Gaza as an opportunity to improve his image.
“This is Nasrallah’s time,” Hage Ali told Al Jazeera.
“Millions of Arabs will follow his speech across the world. They will listen to the only leader in the region who can express their anger and despair by telling them that he will act and support the Palestinians in Gaza, who face an existential threat of expulsion.
Other Lebanese Sunni fighters are already cooperating with Hezbollah to target Israel.
Mohamad, a resident of southern Lebanon, believed that many more Sunni Muslims would support Hezbollah if its battle against Israel intensified.
“Everything that happened in Syria was forgotten in just a few days (after the start of the Gaza war),” he told Al Jazeera.
Lots of waiting
Despite concern among Lebanese residents, Palestinian refugees in the country have said they would like Hezbollah to step up attacks on Israel, something Nasrallah could authorize during his speech.
Ahed Bahr, a member of a Palestinian political party in Lebanon, told Al Jazeera he hoped images of dead children in Gaza would force the “axis of resistance” to intensify against Israel on multiple fronts, including in Lebanon.
“This is the opportunity to finally liberate Palestine,” he said from Sabra and Shatila, two neighborhoods that house a refugee camp in Beirut, the Lebanese capital. “Arab nations can finally help Palestine, but most are doing nothing. »
So will Hezbollah and its allies intensify their attacks against Israel?
Iranian-backed fighters in Syria and Iraq are believed to be responsible for launching multiple rockets and drones at U.S. assets and personnel in the region. These attacks appear to be retaliation for US support for Israeli attacks on Gaza.
Although no U.S. service members were killed, Washington responded with airstrikes targeting fighters near the Syrian-Iraqi border. The United States had also warned Hezbollah against an escalation of attacks against Israel.
Rather than respond, Nasrallah remained silent for three weeks. Until now.
“It feels like a major decision from the ‘axis of resistance’ is coming,” Mohamad said. “This decision could come on Friday.”
