An Israeli writer discussed the possible consequences of the assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri and the leaders of the Al-Qassam Brigades, Samir Fandi and Azzam Al-Aqra, on the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and on Israel, saying that it would harm the prisoner exchange negotiations between the two sides.
Israeli writer Nahum Barnea said that the assassination in the southern suburb of Beirut will harm the activities of the Hamas movement in Lebanon in the short term, but it will not change the reality, as “Hamas is a bigger movement than any of its potential martyrs, including Yahya Sinwar,” as he put it.
Presumed reasons for the assassination
The writer said in an article published in the Israeli newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth” entitled “Eliminating Al-Arouri is a gamble” that the relevant authorities in Israel have a number of reasons for this assassination, but that focused assassinations “are not measured only by the blow that the enemy receives.” He wondered what this could do. Their step?
He answered that of all Hamas’s possible reactions, the most worrying is what concerns its detainees, noting that this is most likely to lead to obstruction and perhaps torpedoing the negotiation process for their release.
The writer said: It is true that the chance of reaching a deal was slim even before the assassination, but with regard to the lives of the detainees, any delay may be decisive, and that any assassination may lead to a counter-assassination, and it is not comfortable to admit that, “but the decision to assassinate was a gamble on “The lives of the detainees and time will tell whether this bet is justified or not.”
Hezbollah will respond sooner or later
The writer also believed that Hezbollah will respond sooner or later, and its response space will be greater than that of Hamas, because it could break the rules of engagement currently agreed upon in the exchange of fire in the north and risk waging an all-out war. It can also attack Israeli tourists or Jewish centers outside Israel; He can also allow Palestinian elements in Lebanon to retaliate across the border, or on the other hand, he can wait patiently until he finds the appropriate time to respond.
Regarding the negotiations that the Americans and the French have been conducting in Lebanon for weeks and which Israel encouraged, the writer saw that the assassination of Al-Arouri was not in its interest, and the hope was placed on these negotiations to reach a settlement through diplomatic means that would prevent war and allow the population to return to their homes, as the arrival of the Minister US State Department Anthony Blinken is expected to visit the region at the end of the week to enhance communications. But last night, after the assassination, he announced the cancellation of his visit.
At the conclusion of his article, the writer concluded that one thing is certain, which is that the assassination of Al-Arouri and his companions will harm Hamas’ activities in Beirut in the short term, but it will not change reality, as Hamas is a bigger movement than any of its potential martyrs, including Sinwar.