Beirut, Lebanon – Lina Mounzer is convinced that Israel wants to intensify the war in Gaza.
The Lebanese writer and researcher owns a family home in Dahiya, the Hezbollah-controlled residential neighborhood in Beirut that was bombed by a drone Tuesday evening, killing seven people, including Saleh al-Arouri, a member of the Hamas politburo.
Israel has not officially admitted responsibility for the attack – in fact, Mark Regev, an advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, attempted in a television interview to distance his country from the attack, without outright denying that he was behind the attack.
But Mounzer has no doubts.
“I think this is generally Israel’s modus operandi,” she told Tel Aviv Tribune. “They are warning that they will intensify. It’s like when they bombed the first hospital in Gaza. Once they realized there would be no international outcry, they started bombing hospitals left, right and center.”
On the streets of Lebanon, too, people are convinced that Israel attacked Beirut, just as it besieged the city in 1982, and fears are growing among Lebanese who are angry at the violation of their country’s territorial sovereignty, but also concerned that any Hezbollah response could drag Lebanon into a wider conflict.
Besides al-Arouri, six other people were also killed, including two senior Hamas military officials and two members of Jama’a Islamiya, according to a source close to the Lebanon-based political movement.
Jama’a Islamiya men provided services such as transportation for al-Arouri, a source close to the group told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“It is simply the fear of an imminent attack on our capital and an attack on its residents that is insane and unfathomable at this point,” said Michelle Eid, a Lebanese researcher.
“There are many people in Lebanon who oppose (Israeli) attacks, regardless of their political affiliation,” she told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Testing the waters?
After al-Arouri’s assassination, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told reporters that he did not want an escalation with Hezbollah.
Following Hamas’ surprise attack on Israeli military outposts and communities on October 7, Hezbollah – which is backed by Iran and part of the so-called Axis of Resistance which also includes Hamas – began a low-intensity conflict with Israel on its southern border.
While violence in the south has displaced more than 72,000 people and killed more than 120 people – including civilians – many in Lebanon believe Hezbollah has taken adequate steps to avoid all-out war with Israel. But Hezbollah now finds itself in a difficult situation, according to Mounzer.
She said the armed group risked escalation if it retaliated for al-Arouri’s killing, but could also fail to deter future Israeli attacks if it did not do so. “To tell you the truth, I am resigned to the idea that this (Hamas-Israel) war will spread,” she added.
Rules of engagement?
Many Lebanese civilians are convinced that Hezbollah will not drag Lebanon into all-out war.
Karim Saifeddine, a Lebanese expert on southern Lebanon, said expanding the war to Beirut would be pointless. He added that the war in southern Lebanon is relatively contained compared to what is happening in Gaza and that most Lebanese would prefer it to continue that way.
“I don’t think an all-out war is something that neither most Lebanese people want nor that Hezbollah’s political leadership prefers,” Saifeddine told Tel Aviv Tribune. “But I believe Hezbollah will intensify. However, they will intensify under certain rules of engagement that may not elicit a major response from Israel. »
Ronnie Chatah, a Lebanese commentator and son of former Finance Minister Mohammad Chatah, who was killed in a car bomb in 2013 and who many accuse Hezbollah of conspiracy, also said that neither Hezbollah nor Iran wants a major war.
“For Iran, it is more important to keep Hezbollah in Lebanon than Hamas in Lebanon,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune. “Hezbollah remains the crown jewel (of Iran) and testing the limits of that crown jewel is not something I think Iran wants to do at the moment.”
Fear of Israel, not Hezbollah
Saifeddine told Tel Aviv Tribune he believed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had clear reasons to continue the war in Gaza – and possibly intensify his northern front with Hezbollah – in order to prolong his political career.
According to a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute, which gauges public opinion every month, only 15 percent of Israelis want Netanyahu to remain in power after the war on Gaza. But 56 percent of Israelis support continuing Netanyahu’s offensive on Gaza, while 50 percent support expanding the northern front with Hezbollah.
“The ball is also in Israel’s court (not just Hezbollah’s) and I think they have an interest in prolonging this war and finding ways to use Israeli air supremacy against the various militants they are fighting,” Said Saifeddine.
Eid, the Lebanese researcher, said that in many ways the war has already reached her country, with Israel frequently invading its airspace with drones and planes, signaling its capacity to escalate at any time.
“To be honest, we can’t even distinguish whether it’s an airliner or an Israeli plane because of how often Israelis fly over us,” Eid said.