Israeli newspapers say that the biggest challenge facing Israel today is finding a way to deter its various Iranian-backed opponents, such as the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias, especially after the recent Houthi missile attack.
The Jerusalem Post newspaper saw that there are 5 challenges facing Israel in confronting Iran and the armed movements in the wake of the recent Houthi missile attack, and Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper saw that this attack still raises difficult questions, especially why it was not identified and intercepted by the Israeli army.
erosion of deterrence
The Jerusalem Post explained – in multiple reports – that the groups attacking Israel do not currently fear any consequences after Hamas was believed to have feared an attack before October 7, and that Hezbollah was largely deterred after 2006 from launching new attacks on Israel, but it learned that it could fire rockets into northern Israel and force Israelis to leave their homes.
Deterrence has eroded rapidly, she said. Whereas militias in Iraq used to be afraid to launch drone attacks on Israel, they now brag about it, and the Houthis have quickly learned since October and November 2023 that they can target Eilat and ships in the Red Sea without facing significant retaliation.
In general, the Iranian-backed axis has not been deterred, according to the newspaper. It chooses the time and place of the attacks, and feels that it has all the time to prepare for more complex attacks. Therefore, changing the equation and deterring enemies from attacking is an important issue for Israel in this war.
Proportionate tactics and responses
Since the war began on October 7, Israel has focused on Gaza, leading to a policy of proportional responses on other fronts, but this tactic may not seem to be working, especially since the absence of a strategy on multiple fronts means that each front now requires a tactical and often proportional response.
The Israeli army is waging a tactical war in the West Bank. Instead of changing its strategy there, it is focusing its operations primarily on hunting down militants, which has become another “mowing the lawn” tactic. But will this defeat the militants or lead to another round with them? The newspaper asks.
Air defenses are not strategic.
Israel’s air defenses have faced increasing challenges on multiple fronts, and this war has tested them to an unprecedented degree. Hamas, for example, began the war by firing thousands of rockets at Israel in the hope of overwhelming its defenses, and it continues to fire a rocket every day or every other day.
The Houthis were also able to threaten Israel, despite the good work of Israeli air defenses, but – according to the Israeli newspaper – “the enemy is constantly changing its capabilities.” It uses drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, finds different ways to threaten Israel and also tries to attack from different directions.
The Jerusalem Post went on to say that air defenses are not a strategy for curbing these threats, because no defense system is completely capable of defending against everything at all times.
The Long War in Gaza
The newspaper believed that Hamas may have sought to drag Israel into a long war in Gaza, and that its supporters abroad wanted to take advantage of October 7 to increase Hamas’s presence in the West Bank, and the longer the war in Gaza continues without eliminating Hamas, the more Israel will be distracted from other threats.
If the war in Gaza ends and Hamas is defeated, Israel may focus on other fronts, the newspaper believes, but Hamas has dragged Israel into a long war and forced it to spend resources and capabilities in Gaza, which Israeli leaders see as not in Israel’s interest.
Abraham Accords and Iran’s Escalation
Iran’s escalation against Israel since October 7 aims to isolate Tel Aviv and prevent it from advancing other agendas such as economic and diplomatic initiatives, and it also wants to force it to fight endless low-level wars along its borders, according to the newspaper.
Iran hopes that isolating Israel through war will enable Tehran to work closely with Russia, China and Turkey, among others, and exploit the Arab League and other Muslim states against Israel.
As for Yedioth Ahronoth, the Houthi missile attack on central Israel raises difficult questions, starting with identifying the type of missile, and why it was not intercepted far from Israeli territory if it was ballistic?
The Jerusalem Post, in a separate article, addressed the same question raised by Yedioth Ahronoth, saying that a Houthi missile evaded advanced Israeli detection systems and was only shot down after it passed over Israeli airspace, raising questions about possible malfunctions in the security systems in place.
The newspaper explained that the Houthis do not have their own ballistic missile industry, and that what is known in Yemen as the “Tofan” is basically the Iranian “Ghadir missile”, which has a range of about two thousand kilometers, and does not take more than half an hour to prepare for launch, and 15 minutes is enough for it to reach central Israel.
With the Houthis’ ballistic missile attack on Israel on Sunday, the paper says in a third article, time may no longer be on Israel’s side. There is much talk about how long the war should last, and whether more military pressure can break Hamas and recover the captives before time runs out.
The newspaper concluded that anyone who believes that the war can continue without cost on these other fronts outside Gaza, even after the US elections in November, is fooling himself.
