An Israeli military analyst expressed his belief that Tel Aviv is heading towards what he described as a catastrophic, multi-dimensional failure, and that at the strategic level, it is “stuck on all fronts, Gaza, Lebanon, and internationally.”
Haaretz newspaper analyst Amos Harel said in an analysis published today, Friday, that with the war on Gaza entering its ninth month, it is difficult to announce that there is good news on the horizon.
He added, “A series of discussions held over the past few weeks with high-ranking figures in the defense establishment increasingly indicate that Israel is heading toward a catastrophic, multi-dimensional failure.”
The analyst said that strategically, “we are stuck on all fronts, the largest and most important of which is the Hezbollah front in Lebanon, which threatens to turn into a massive conflagration that, if it occurs, will cast a shadow over everything that happened before it.”
Since the eighth of last October, the Lebanese border has witnessed mutual bombing between the Israeli army on the one hand and Hezbollah and Palestinian factions in Lebanon on the other, which left dead and wounded on both sides of the border.
However, this mutual bombardment, despite its escalation, has not yet reached the stage of open war, despite Israel’s repeated threats.
Gaza front
Harel said that as for the situation in Gaza, Israel is not succeeding in translating what he described as a large accumulation of tactical achievements into a strategic victory.
He explained that “the military activity in the Gaza Strip, which is now concentrated in Rafah and the refugee camps in the center, imposes a high price on Hamas, but it will not achieve victory in the war in the foreseeable future,” and described the situation in Gaza as more complex.
Regarding a prisoner exchange deal, he said: “It seems that the talks about the hostage deal with Hamas have entered a new crisis, after it seemed for a moment that US President Joe Biden’s speech might get us out of the quagmire.”
He believed that “under the circumstances, it seems the right thing to do is to pursue as much as possible a hostage deal, even at the expense of stopping the war.”
Lebanon Front
In this context, Harel warned of the consequences of the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and said: “It seems that the public has not yet realized the difference in terms of the damage that Hezbollah missiles can cause compared to Hamas missiles.”
He added that the number of rockets fired by Hamas on the first day of the war was 5,000, a number that Hezbollah could repeat every day for a month, and many of these rockets are heavier, have a longer range and are also more accurate.
Harel added: “Contrary to the impression created by some recent reports, it is difficult to say that the Israeli leadership is enthusiastic about a war in the north. However, the danger exists that an excessive display of the capabilities of the Israeli army will lead to the opposite of the desired result, and make an all-out war more likely.”
At the international level
The Israeli analyst suggested that “Tel Aviv will find itself in a war without international legitimacy that faded away after October 7, when the dimensions of destruction and killing in Gaza became clear, as well as without strong American support and in light of an exhausted army struggling to maintain a regular supply of ammunition and spare parts.” Spare parts.
He explained the reasons that prompted the Israeli army to use the term “precision attacks” in its recent statements. He said: “A detailed paragraph was recently added to the official military statements about such attacks, saying that the operations were carried out with the utmost caution, and in accordance with the international laws of war.”
He added: “The shadow of the International Criminal Court in The Hague is already looming over the horizon of events, and in some recent discussions held by the government and the defense establishment, participants were astonished to discover that international arrest warrants can also be issued secretly.”
He continued: “In theory, a senior military officer or minister could visit a foreign country and find himself suspected and wanted upon landing in that country.”
At the end of December 2023, South Africa filed a lawsuit against Israel before the International Court of Justice on the grounds that it had violated the 1948 United Nations Convention on the Prevention of Genocide.
Later, several countries submitted requests to join the cause, including Palestine, Turkey, Libya, Nicaragua, Colombia, Mexico, and Spain.
Since October 7, Israel has been waging a war on Gaza, leaving more than 120,000 Palestinians martyred and wounded, most of them children and women, and about 10,000 missing, amid massive destruction and famine that claimed the lives of children and the elderly.
Israel continues its war despite a decision by the UN Security Council to stop it immediately, and orders from the International Court of Justice to end the invasion of the city of Rafah, take measures to prevent acts of genocide, and improve the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Israel is also challenging the request of International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan to issue international arrest warrants against its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and its Defense Minister, Yoav Galant, for their responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.