An Israeli expert said that the war on Gaza will practically stop, and the Israeli army will not be able to resume it after the seventh day of the start of the ceasefire and prisoner exchange within the first phase of the deal that is likely to be signed between Israel and Hamas.
Eyal Ofer, an expert on Hamas affairs, according to what the Israeli newspaper Maariv described, attributed this to the fact that the potential deal would allow about a million displaced people from Gaza and its north to return to their homes from the areas to which they were displaced from the south, noting that their return would create obstacles to the occupation army. To resume the war after the end of the first phase, which will last for at least sixty days, according to what is being negotiated now.
Although all the details published about the potential deal remain unconfirmed, Ofer focused on an important clause that may make it difficult to implement the second part of the long-awaited agreement, and will also practically prevent the continuation of the fighting against Hamas.
Return of displaced persons
The Israeli expert pointed out that according to the leak of the “Principles for the Exchange of Abductees and Prisoners and Restoring Sustainable Calm” document dated May 27, 2024, which is the basis of discussions now in Doha, Article 3 stipulates that the displaced will return to their places of residence on the seventh day of the deal.
Ofer explains this situation by saying, “The beginning of winter led to great destruction in tents, most of which were built several months ago. Rain, floods, and leaks made the lives of many people miserable, and they now wanted to return to their homes, even if part of their homes were destroyed.”
He believes that, contrary to the many pictures showing the great destruction in Gaza, the situation in the center and west of Gaza City will allow hundreds of thousands of people to return to the city and live in the buildings, even if some of their walls are destroyed, because returning to a place where there is a real roof over their heads. It is much better for them than tents, a large part of which is destroyed due to wind and rain in the winter.
He added that it is clear that on the seventh day of the deal, we will see huge convoys of more than a million people making their way north, through the Netzarim axis, which is controlled by Israeli forces, to Gaza City. Among them are tens of thousands of Hamas members, and Israel’s only demand is that they not move with their weapons.
In this context, Eyal Ofer claims that there are thousands of weapons caches still present in Gaza City, waiting for those returning from the south.
The Israeli expert assumes that for Hamas, if it succeeds in obtaining the demand to return the displaced at the beginning of the agreement, its motivation to implement the second part of it will decline as they continue to retain the Israeli prisoners.
He is trying to strengthen his point of view by refuting the position expressed by the Israeli government that it will resume fighting immediately after the first phase if Hamas does not release all the prisoners. Citing urban warfare expert Colonel John Spencer, he says: “Any deal that involves the return of the displaced to the populated areas it controls Without replacing Hamas, it means that the war in these areas is over. Every war is a political act, and Israel does not have the political ability to evacuate these residents if the need arises to renew the war.”
Determination to return to fighting
The Israeli expert goes on to explain his idea, which is basically based on the fact that the occupation army will not succeed in the war unless it relies on the policy of displacement and starvation (the generals’ plan), and says, “If we study the importance of the details, we will understand that after the displaced return to their homes, the only explicit Israeli insistence is “To return to fighting makes no sense, for three reasons.”
The first reason is that the presence of 1.5 million people in the crowded Gaza City will create restrictive conditions that make fighting in the cities impossible. The Israeli army claimed to evacuate them so that they could fight.
The second reason is the need for the Israeli army to refrain from harming civilians, to provide them with at least five times the number of humanitarian convoys to the northern Gaza Strip, and to demand repeated humanitarian stops for the purpose of distributing aid, with the need to begin rehabilitating the infrastructure. In Gaza City and repairing the damage to many of the homes that were damaged, this means, according to Ofer, that the area has become an environment in which it is impossible to fight for the Israeli army.
The third reason, according to the Israeli expert, is that Israel’s insistence on threatening to return to fighting under these circumstances and leaving parts of the Netzarim Road in its hands becomes meaningless, and will rather constitute a burden on the occupation forces.
Eyal Ofer concludes his article by saying, “In fact, with the implementation of the first week of the first phase of the agreement, the war will end.”
