Occupied Jerusalem- Estimates by Israeli analysts warned of the consequences of continuing the war on Gaza, and unanimously agreed that it had not achieved its goals, while some analysts suggested that what was considered some “achievements” might explode and turn into a strategic failure if the fighting and ground battles were prolonged.
As the aggression entered its fourth month, observers’ convictions strengthened of the necessity of completing a comprehensive exchange deal in light of the Israeli army’s failure to liberate even a single “hostage” in the ground military operation.
The opinions of analysts affiliated with various components of the political spectrum and party camps agreed on the impossibility of undermining the capabilities of the military resistance and ending the rule of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Gaza Strip, and there were those who called for ending the war and initiating negotiations with it on everything related to the day after the war.
Strategic defeat
Eyal Alema, a military analyst on the official Israeli television channel, Kan, expressed his agreement with the contents of these estimates, pointing out that the war on the Gaza Strip is now in perhaps the most sensitive stages regarding its continuation due to many fundamental challenges and problems.
Alima told Tel Aviv Tribune Net that the most prominent of these challenges relate to the course of the fighting and the declared goals of the war that have not been achieved so far, and that the continuation of the battles shows that the contradiction between the goals has become more clear and that Israel cannot overcome this contradiction, which means that the goals of the war will not be achieved.
The military analyst cited US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s statements to his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, in which he expressed his fears about the consequences of the Israeli army’s inability to achieve the goals of the war and to maintain field military achievements. Alima warned of the consequences of the achievements turning into a strategic defeat.
He pointed out that the Israeli government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu went to war with military objectives set and did not have any plan for the day after the war and did not base its agenda on any political pillar. He said, “In the absence of a political horizon, perhaps Israel will sink into the Gaza quagmire and it will be “It is difficult for her to achieve the goals she seeks.”
For his part, military analyst Akiva Eldar agrees with the consensus assessments of military analysts that Tel Aviv has not achieved any of the declared war goals, and stressed that it is “far from achieving any goal.”
Eldar reviewed – to Tel Aviv Tribune Net – the implications of these estimates, saying, “They indicate the possibility of the start of the countdown to the war due to the real pressures exerted by the administration of US President Joe Biden on the Netanyahu government, to stop the war on Gaza for fear of a comprehensive confrontation and the outbreak of a regional war.”
Failed option
Akiva Eldar explained that the current Israeli government does not have any political plan for the day after the war, and that it deals with the Gaza Strip only from a military perspective to eliminate Hamas and change the political reality in the Gaza Strip, and this is what has proven to be a failure and will not be achieved.
The political analyst pointed out that Netanyahu’s government – which consists of an alliance of far-right parties, settlers, religious and Haredi parties – is unable to formulate any political program with the Palestinians with a regional and international horizon and is clinging to the military option despite its proven ineffectiveness.
The military analyst on the Ynet website affiliated with the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Ron Ben Yishai, reviewed his impressions about the conduct of ground battles through his accompaniment of the Israeli army engineering teams that are trying to dismantle the arsenal system and blow up the tunnel mouths that are discovered.
According to Ben Yishai, a simple spark in Hamas’s weapons facilities and tunnel entrances could lead to large explosions that would eliminate some of the field achievements achieved by the Israeli army, as he put it.
Ben Yishai recorded impressions of the mouth of one tunnel, where its detonation by the Israeli army led to the killing of 6 soldiers, pointing out that the tunnel reflects the idea of the extent and degree of danger of the military production system that Hamas developed in several places in the Gaza Strip, including explosives, ammunition and missile factories. Under the ground that Israel knows nothing about.
In the absence of an Israeli plan regarding the sincerity of the claims of the political level in achieving the war goals, the military analyst – Amos Harel in the newspaper “Haaretz” – cited the statements of Defense Minister Yoav Galant, who officially announced the transition of the army in the northern Gaza Strip to the third phase of the war, saying that “this The statements mean a prolongation of the war and do not herald its end soon.”
Unrealistic goals
The same military analyst pointed out that Hamas is presenting the Israeli army with many challenges, not only in the various areas of the incursion into the Gaza Strip and the army inflicting heavy losses on soldiers, equipment and military vehicles, but also in the Israeli depths.
He added that the recent rocket salvo that was fired from the Gaza Strip and targeted “Greater Tel Aviv” proved that Hamas has all the capabilities to continue disturbing the internal front in Israel.
In contrast to these developments and facts on the ground, the military analyst believes that the Israeli government, which raised the ceiling on the war’s goals, even if they seemed unrealistic and unattainable to it, is now facing a political and coalition crisis as the war enters its fourth month. Harel says: “It became clear that the goals of the war were to eliminate The rule of Hamas, the weakening of its arsenal, the liberation of Israeli detainees and the return of the population to the Gaza Strip have not been achieved and are still far from being achieved.”
Under the title “How do we get out of the well we fell into?”, Nahum Barnea, a political analyst at Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, wrote an article in which he pointed out that the events of October 7, 2023, plunged Israel into a deep well, and getting out of it It means achieving the declared war goals, which have been confirmed to be unrealistic and cannot be achieved no matter how much fighting continues.
Barnea explained that the reality on the ground proved that the last three weeks of fighting did not change reality, but rather cost Tel Aviv human casualties among soldiers, in addition to a humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip for which Israel bears responsibility.
He said: “The facts of the war harm Israel’s image globally and do not bring us closer to a victory that does not exist in the first place. Even if Yahya Sinwar or Muhammad Al-Deif, or even both, are assassinated, the facts and results of the fighting will not change.”
Barnea believes that the Israeli government must negotiate with Hamas for a comprehensive exchange deal that guarantees the liberation of all kidnapped Israelis while maintaining the movement’s rule in the Gaza Strip.
He pointed out that this was a humiliating defeat for Israel, saying that “perhaps it is right for us to negotiate with Hamas, as there is a high price for failure. Killing all those held captive by Hamas will be a disgrace to the conscience of Israeli society.”
