Occupied Jerusalem Israeli military analysts believe that the scenario of a comprehensive war with Hezbollah is still on the table, but they estimate that Israel is avoiding confrontation on the northern front with Lebanon, fearing the outbreak of a regional war that could inflict heavy losses on the Israeli home front.
Israeli readings agreed that the “preemptive strike” launched by the Israeli army last week on southern Lebanon may have postponed the large-scale attack planned by Hezbollah in response to the assassination of the party’s military commander, Fouad Shukr, but it did not deter the Iranian-backed party, which continues to prepare for the possibility of a comprehensive war breaking out on the northern front.
Israeli military analyses estimated that the risk of a comprehensive war on multiple fronts still exists, if an exchange deal and ceasefire, even if temporary, are not reached on the Gaza front. They attributed this to Hezbollah’s continuation of its military operational plan to gradually expand missile and explosive drone attacks deep inside Israel.
The readings suggested that Hezbollah was draining Israel’s air capabilities in preparation for an Iranian response to avenge the assassination of Hamas’s political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh. They agreed that in any comprehensive war, the party would first attack the air defenses and seek to destroy them to enable the effectiveness of any attacks on the Israeli interior, whether by Iran or its allies.
existential risks
Channel 13 military affairs analyst Alon Ben David believes that Israel, in light of the continued security escalation on several fronts, is heading towards the abyss, saying that “Israeli society is looking from the sidelines, acting as if nothing has happened, and does not realize the extent of the existential risks.”
The military analyst explained that for two months, Israel has been stuck at a strategic crossroads, adding that “turning right will lead us to a hostage deal, even if partial, and to a halt to the violent fighting in Gaza, and the possibility of reaching a settlement in the north, the West Bank, and the entire region.”
While the turn to the left, according to Ben David, leads Israel to finally abandon and sacrifice the detainees, and venture into a broad regional war whose repercussions and results cannot be predicted, especially on the Israeli home front, where the West Bank is burning, while the front with Lebanon and Hezbollah is gradually expanding.
He pointed out that the Israeli army’s response to Hezbollah’s initial response to Shukr’s assassination does not necessarily mean that the preemptive strike was effective, but rather it was an opportunity for the Israeli political level to move towards a settlement with Hamas, Hezbollah and the region, “but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to continue the war on all fronts, and Israel will pay the price.”
broad attack
The same argument was adopted by the military correspondent for the newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth”, Yoav Ziton, who believes that the “preemptive strike” did not deter Hezbollah, as it continues to prepare for a comprehensive confrontation on the northern front, and coordinates future steps with Iran and the armed factions in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
The military correspondent pointed out that Hezbollah’s initial response was primarily aimed at disabling the Iron Dome system in the country, in order to prepare the conditions for a broad attack on the Israeli interior in which Iran might participate.
Zaitoun explained that the “preemptive strike” may have postponed and postponed Hezbollah’s broad response, which is still relying on the same military plan through its intensive attacks with missile barrages and explosive drones on army camps and defense systems in the north.
In this regard, the military correspondent says, “The Israeli Air Force is on high alert in anticipation of a possible attack from Iran, or a repetition of the series of intensive attacks launched by Hezbollah, which are considered the largest since the Second Lebanon War, and aim to empty the interceptor missiles of the air defense system.”
“On major combat days, the air force will be forced to choose vital defense areas and strategic locations, even if that comes at the expense of protecting residential areas,” Zeitoun added. “Hezbollah has other capabilities that it has developed since 2006 and has not used.”
Tactical Achievements
In light of these developments, the development of capabilities, and the security escalation on multiple fronts, Ron Ben-Yishai, a military analyst on the Ynet website, estimated that Israel is avoiding a comprehensive war on several fronts, especially on the northern front with Lebanon, for fear of the catastrophic damage it could cause to the Israeli interior.
The military analyst pointed out that since last May, the Israeli political level has been avoiding a clash with the American administration, and even harmonizing with Washington in order to refrain from any measures that might cause a comprehensive confrontation with Hezbollah, and to be satisfied with cumulative tactical achievements.
Ben-Yishai noted that the preemptive strike may have prevented a broad and comprehensive initial response by Hezbollah within the Israeli home front, but it did not lead to a strategic change on the northern front, a change that will not be achieved without a comprehensive war with Hezbollah and a ground incursion into southern Lebanon.
The military analyst expected that if the American mediator Amos Hochstein was unable to reach a diplomatic settlement with Lebanon that would keep Hezbollah and its heavy weapons away from the border, Israel would be forced to go to war to remove the threat of the party’s missiles and explosive aircraft from the Israeli home front.
Ben-Yishai says that any comprehensive war with Hezbollah would be heavy in terms of human losses and destruction on the Israeli and Lebanese home fronts, as the Israeli army would need a large amount of heavy weapons and spare parts that only the United States could provide.
Israel will also need to cooperate with US Central Command forces and regional US allies, “to repel missile and explosive drone attacks that may be launched by Iran and its proxies,” the military analyst says.
He concluded that “in the current era of multi-front warfare, Israel can no longer say that it has the ability to defend itself against all threats coming from all directions. This may be technically possible, but the price that the Israeli home front will pay will be heavy.”
