In an analysis published by the American magazine “National Interest,” Israeli political analyst Shalom Lipner said that the comprehensive destruction inflicted by the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israeli bases and settlements in the Gaza envelope “extended to destroying the confidence of the Israelis in their public institutions until Israel seemed lost and had abandoned them.” Its leaders appeared to be at that time.”
A year after those attacks, Lipner believes that “feelings of frustration and disappointment still dominate the majority of Israelis, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s promises to achieve complete victory over Hamas have become hollow, and Israelis either feel disappointed because his pledges have not been fulfilled or they do not believe that “Such an achievement is possible.”
The Israeli analyst says, “While Israeli losses in the Gaza war are increasing, despite the massive destruction that Israel is inflicting on the cities of the Gaza Strip and its killing of more than 42,000 Palestinians – most of whom are children and women – Hamas is regrouping its ranks inside the areas from which the Israeli army is withdrawing.”
Temporary joy
He added, “But the collapsed morale of the Israelis received a strong boost on September 17, when attention suddenly turned towards Lebanon after thousands of members of the Lebanese Hezbollah, the arch enemy of Israel, were killed and wounded due to the simultaneous explosion of thousands of pagers and then hundreds of pagers.” “Walkie-talkie communication occurred the next day, in a precise intelligence operation.”
He added, “Despite Israel’s official denial of responsibility for the two operations, the Israeli army followed them with a series of air attacks that resulted in the killing of the Lebanese party’s senior leaders – led by its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah – and launched a massive military operation on Lebanon called “Northern Arrows,” which revived Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity. among the Israelis.
Lipner – who worked during the period from 1990 to 2016 in the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office with 7 successive prime ministers – continues in his analysis, “While Israel was not prepared for war against Hamas in Gaza, it was better prepared to deal with Hezbollah, both on the military level.” Or intelligence, which allowed her to strike him with a strong blow.”
He warns, saying, “But this increase in Israeli morale and its superiority on the battlefield against Hezbollah may later prove to be temporary. Tens of thousands of Israelis are still displaced from their homes that are in the party’s range of fire, and the number of displaced Israelis could increase if Hezbollah expands its scope.” “His attacks.”
He cites in this regard that last September 25 “witnessed an unprecedented missile bombardment by Hezbollah on Tel Aviv, and conventional wisdom says that the party still maintains a large missile arsenal that it can launch with the progress of the Israeli army’s ground incursion. What is more dangerous is that Iran quickly bypassed the strikes.” Israel to its ally, Hezbollah, and sank Israel with about 200 ballistic missiles on October 1.”
According to Lipner in his analysis, “Israel once again stands at a crossroads. While Israeli bombing in Lebanon is increasing as part of a declared attempt to promote de-escalation through escalation, the flames of that confrontation could spread to other neighboring hot areas, making this formula fraught with dangers for Israel.” Especially after Iran came out of the shadows and entered the battle unequivocally.”
He went on to say, “A mistake in judgment – whether on the part of Israel or Hezbollah – regarding perceptions or the course of the confrontation may lead to igniting the fuse of an all-out war on the multiple fronts that Netanyahu repeatedly mentioned, and this would herald a potential disaster, not only for the citizens of… “Israel and its infrastructure, but also for its already faltering economy and global standing.”
The position on the truce
Regarding the possibilities of a truce, he says, “The call – which was transformed by a group of countries with the support of the United States on September 25 of last year into a 21-day truce along the Lebanese-Israeli border from which negotiations aimed at reaching a permanent cessation of hostilities would begin – proposes a different path forward.” “.
He points out that the Israelis “are hesitant to move forward on this path, because such a truce would give Hezbollah valuable time to recover and reconstitute its depleted arsenal, and agreements based on international guarantees such as UN Security Council Resolution No. 1701 – which stipulated “establishing An area between the Blue Line and the Litani River where there are no weapons other than those belonging to the Government of Lebanon and UNIFIL forces – which Hezbollah blatantly violated.
Lipner believes that “in the absence of ideal options, the Netanyahu government – whose popularity is still very low among voters – is facing several critical decisions that will either lift the Israelis out of their extended nightmare or make the current bad situation even worse, and the return of the population of the north could become To their homes in safety, which the Israeli security government added to its war objectives on September 17 is the least of this government’s problems.”
In his assessment of Netanyahu’s handling of the recent discussions related to a possible ceasefire for a period of 3 weeks, he believes that it was “bad handling. In a repetition of his classic step, Netanyahu gave his approval to the efforts to calm the situation, then surrendered to the loud objections of his partners in the ruling coalition who threatened to topple the government, so he withdrew his approval.” On pacification efforts.
He added, “Also, the clear frictions with the United States regarding the broad outlines of its expected response to the Iranian attack could expose Israel to danger, as it lacks the ability to deal with the Iranian threat on its own.”
Lipner says, “The most effective course of action for Netanyahu is to cooperate with the administration of US President Joe Biden and begin constructive work to formulate a sustainable end to the game, ensuring Israel’s hard-won gains on the battlefield, ending the wars of attrition in Gaza and Lebanon, and facilitating the return of its captive and displaced citizens.” To their homes.”
He points out that Washington and Paris, among other capitals, “rushed to send aid to Israel when Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones, but this support, in addition to the material and diplomatic aid provided by the supporter of Israel in the White House, will not have the same importance if conditions deteriorate and Israel finds itself… “Engaged in a broader and more fierce fighting.”
He concludes his analysis by saying, “If Netanyahu leads Israel to this dark scenario because of the arrogance of his right-wing government after he has burned all the bridges with his country’s friends, the Israelis will continue to feel sad and frustrated for a long time to come.”